Wrexham to Premier League? Why promotion for Red Dragons, Swansea and other Welsh teams might not be soon

As the Championship season kicks off on Friday with Birmingham City hosting Ipswich Town, it will also mark another consecutive season without a Welsh club in the Premier League. Since Cardiff City’s relegation at the end of the 2018-19 season, there hasn’t been a side from Wales in the top flight, and the road is only getting bleaker following the Bluebirds’ dipping into League One this season, although they expect their stay to be a short one.

But with Cardiff dipping, a new soccer force is rising in Wales — Wrexham — a Hollywood story that has made good on the hype by securing three consecutive promotions from the fifth division in the National League all the way up to the second division in the Championship. While it’s a long road from where the Dragons are now to where they want to be in the Premier League, they’ve already accomplished so much that nothing can be put out of reach.

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But which Welsh club is best set to end that drought of being in the top flight?

When it comes to being set for success, there are plenty of ways to determine what that means, but one factor that must be taken into account is squad value. It’s not the end-all be-all because teams can outperform their value, but especially in the lower divisions, squad value can have a direct correlation with success. Let’s take a look at how the five clubs stack up:  

Welsh clubs’ squad value 

All values via transfermarkt

There are eight teams in the Premier League with a squad value double that of Swansea City, and the lowest squad value in the Premier League is over six times bigger than Swansea. While they may have the highest squad value currently, but there isn’t much space between them and the trailing duo of Cardiff and Wrexham. It’s quite a fall from when you consider Swansea qualified for the Europa League via winning the League Cup back in 2013, but it has given the rest of Wales time to catch up. Cardiff, being relegated from the Championship last season, has created a dent that won’t show on their books yet, but if the stay in League One is longer than one season, things could spiral. The gap between League One and the Championship is a long one and teams that fall that far can take a long time to get back to the Premier League.

Sunderland experienced a similar fall, being relegated from the Premier League in 2017-18 before landing in League One in the 2018-19 season. It would take the Black Cats four seasons to even get out of League One before earning promotion to the Premier League at the end of the last campaign. Swansea City haven’t made the Championship playoffs since the 2020-21 season, settling in as a midtable club which has stalled their momentum. With five managers since that time, stability is needed to improve their league standing and push for promotion.

Meanwhile, Wrexham’s rise since their takeover in 2020 by actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac (formerly McElhenney) has seen them bridge the gap in a big way between the other Welsh sides. It will be a challenge to stay in the Championship. Premier League dreams are premature at this stage, but as long as a few things break in the Dragons’ favor, they can avoid the drop. There’s no reason to rule out further investment, pushing the club over the top. Newport County and Merthyr Town warrant mentioning because in 2020, no one thought that Wrexham would be where they are now, but it’s unlikely that they will pass the top three without a similar miracle. 

If Swansea or Cardiff are able to find stability of their own, things could change, but looking at trajectories, Wrexham are the best-placed team to be a Welsh representative in the Premier League. The resources available to the club, support at the STōK Racecourse, and the fact that the club has been able to retool each time that they’ve risen up a level in the leagues will all be important factors.

Transfer activity has been light for the club after promotion to the Championship, but additions such as Conor Coady in defense and Ryan Hardie in attack will be moves that can help the Dragons stay in this division. Links to players like Christian Eriksen are ambitious targets that can put them over the top, from fighting for survival in the Championship to being a mid-table side in the league, as getting promoted again seems unlikely in the short term, mainly due to available resources compared to teams expected to finish at the top of the Championship. With the notoriety gained by the club with their promotion up the leagues, along with the success of the TV series, “Welcome to Wrexham,” and the steady hand of manager Phil Parkinson guiding them, there’s nothing that Wrexham can’t accomplish. But with what is expected to be the sixth-lowest payroll in the league, promotion to the top flight is going to take something special and increased investment.