The first North London derby ever played outside the United Kingdom comes at a time when it seems like the gap between Arsenal and Tottenham is as wide as it has been in a generation. You have to go back nearly 50 years to Spurs’ temporary sojourn in the second tier in 1977-78 for the last time as many positions separated them from their rivals down the Seven Sisters Road.
Arsenal ended 2024-25 in the familiar position of second, while for Tottenham this proved to be a year they flirted with both triumph and disaster, landing on a curious form of the latter by winning the Europa League and finishing in 17th, just above the Premier League drop zone. The latter cost Ange Postecoglou his job with Thomas Frank quickly alighted on as the replacement.
If the former Brentford boss wants to quickly ingratiate himself to his new faithful then ending a six man winless streak against the great enemy would be an ideal way to begin, even if it’s just in preseason. The North London derby tends to be one where home advantage pays off spectacularly — Arsenal are 15 years unbeaten in Premier League derbies at the Emirates Stadium — but right now Spurs are on a three game losing streak at their own ground. Perhaps Hong Kong’s neutral soil (and a friendly match you can watch live on CBS Sports Golazo Network or Paramount+) will give them the encouragement that they can go on to match the Gunners in the greater tests to come. For now this game alone offers quite a helpful measure of the progress Tottenham have or have not made this summer, as their new boss acknowledged on Tuesday.
“I think it’s a great challenge besides being our biggest rivals and the first North London Derby outside the UK,” said Frank. “It’s also right now one of the best teams, I must say unfortunately, in the world. We also need to be honest. In that way it’s going to be a big test, but it’s more than a test as against Arsenal it’s not only a friendly. Of course it’s a game we will do everything we can to win.”
Can Spurs really hope to swing a 36 point gap back in their favor? What is the limit of what can realistically be expected of Frank’s new side and does it come anywhere close to a worst case scenario for Arsenal? Read on to find out.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham viewing information
- Date: Thursday, July 31 | Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Kai Tak Sports Park — Hong Kong
- Live stream: CBS Sports Golazo Network or Paramount+
- Odds: Arsenal -182; Draw +320; Tottenham +380
Arsenal’s floor
There is a fair argument to be made that what we saw from Arsenal last season was not that much higher than a bottom 10 percent possible outcome for Arteta’s side. Devastated by injuries, Mikel Arteta got only six league starts out of Gabriel Jesus, 20 from Bukayo Saka, 21 from Kai Havertz, 25 from Gabriel Martinelli and 26 from Martin Odegaard. That is arguably Arsenal’s five most important forwards, each missing nearly a third of the season or more. In such circumstances the Gunners fairly swiftly fell too far behind Liverpool to mount a compelling title challenge, but even with a few wobbles they were never really at risk of slipping out of the top four.
Had Arteta had greater depth at his disposal perhaps the Gunners could have kept on Liverpool’s heels and baited a few wobbles from the champions. Certainly new sporting director Andrea Berta has moved to address that, a sextet of new signings meaning that there are two experienced, international level players for almost every position. The only one where that might not be the case is Martin Odegaard’s, where Ethan Nwaneri currently figures to be the back up. Having one of the brightest young prospects in the recent history of the Hale End academy is hardly to be sniffed at.
Arsenal know what their ceiling is: a Premier League title and/or Champions League. How far might they fall? Setting aside black swan events, as we will for Tottenham below, it is hard to make much of a case for the Gunners drifting outside the top four. A third place finish, that’s pretty easy. Arsenal aren’t as good as they might be, Manchester City and Liverpool are.
Maybe you could add Chelsea to that mix too. After all the Blues were only five points back come the end of last season and their expected goal difference of 21.16 was not too far off Arsenal’s 26.55. Perhaps Newcastle keep Alexander Isak, don’t get gazumped on every player they want to sign and start the season well. In those circumstances perhaps the Gunners could drop into the Champions League bubble but it surely can’t get any worse that that, can it?
*No, that was not an invitation for you to all go Mick McCarthy on me*
Tottenham’s ceiling
As for Spurs, their last season is a tricky one to assess. For roughly the first third of the campaign, Postecoglou’s men won every game where they were the dominant side and got next to nothing from the close ones. Then came a raft of injuries through the Tottenham defense more brutal even than those Arsenal faced in their attack, weeks on end where it was a remarkable stroke of fortune if two of the regular back five could take the field. By the time that all eased Premier League hopes were over, but the Europa League glistened temptingly on the horizon, so Postecoglou rightly concluded that it was better to sacrifice a few domestic games when the other competition offered silverware and a route to the Champions League.
The aggregate story for the league does not look encouraging though. Seventeenth may have overexaggerated Spurs’ failings but their expected goal difference was the 15th best in the division, the 65 they conceded a high watermark of defensive failings beaten only by Wolves and the three relegated teams.
Tottenham looked like a team that could score three but might just concede four and their transfer business this summer has done little to change that. Mathys Tel’s loan has been made permanent while Mohamed Kudus has been the marquee signing so far, arriving from West Ham. What investment has gone in to strengthening the defense appears to be for the long term with signings such as Kota Takai. So far the deep-lying midfielder that this squad so desperately needed last season has not arrived.
It is fair to assume that a coach of Frank’s qualities will strengthen Spurs defensively, his Brentford side having actually allowed fewer xG per game over the past four seasons than his new employers. Fitness alone should bring the defensive output back towards the rest of the big six. But can Tottenham really hope to catch their greatest rival?
The bookmakers would suggest not, ranking Spurs as around the eighth most likely team to qualify for the Champions League. That seems a fair estimation of where their squad is now. There are bright young things like Destiny Udogie and Lucas Bergvall who could play a big role on a top four team in the future and then veterans like Heung-min Son (should rumors of a move to Los Angeles not pan out) and Richarlison with plenty of miles in their legs. Between them, there are maybe only a couple of key players rounding out into their prime at 24. The best of them, Micky van de Ven, struggles for availability.
Now perhaps they get 38 games from him and Cristian Romero. Perhaps Son holds back the ageing tide and maybe Frank’s coaching acumen makes up for the defensive limitations of his midfield options. A top ten percentile season, in other words. What might be the ceiling then? Realistically it might be the cusp of Champions League contention, one that would be easier if a few more of the big six fell off.
So, could Spurs’ ceiling take them higher than Arsenal’s floor? Probably not in a season that is vaguely normal; it would require a very, very good Tottenham campaign to come at the same time as lightning kept striking the Emirates Stadium. However this is North London, a part of the world that can deliver multiple 5-2 derby comebacks in the same year. Strange things can happen.
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