What seemed unthinkable is on the verge of happening: USA may not advance out of the first round of the World Baseball Classic. Tuesday’s stunning upset loss to Italy means USA will spend Wednesday rooting for Italy to beat Mexico or for Mexico to score at least five runs. A low-scoring Mexico win would send USA home before the quarterfinals.
“It’s out of our control,” USA captain Aaron Judge told MLB.com after Tuesday’s loss. “Now we just need a little luck, and we’ll see what happens.”
In another universe, more than a spot in the WBC quarterfinals could have been on the line for USA on Wednesday. They also could have lost out on a spot in the 2028 Olympics. That is not the case though. As the host country — the 2028 Olympics will be held in Los Angeles — USA gets an automatic berth. So, USA doesn’t have to sweat that Wednesday. Small comfort, maybe, but it’s something.
Italy vs. Mexico in the World Baseball Classic: How to watch, clinch scenarios and how USA can advance
Mike Axisa
The WBC is being used as one of three qualifying events for the six-team 2028 Olympic baseball tournament. Here’s how the six Olympic teams will be selected:
- Host team: USA (automatic berth)
- 2026 WBC: Top two finishers from the Americas
- 2027 WSBC Premier12: Top finisher from Asia and top finisher from Europe/Oceania
- 2028 Olympic qualifier: Final berth
That final qualifier event will be played no later than March 2028 and will include two eligible teams from the 2027 European championship, two eligible teams from the 2027 Asian championship, the African champion, and the highest eligible team from the Oceanic championship. The winner of the qualifying event gets the last spot in the Olympics.
MLB could send players to the Olympics for the first time in 2028. In the past, only amateurs and non-40-man roster minor leaguers could play in the Olympics, but, with the Games in Los Angeles, there’s a push to send MLB players. The league wants it and the players want it. The bet here is they work it out and MLB sends its players to the Olympics, though that is not yet official.
“I think that the idea of playing in L.A. in ’28, regardless of the merits of the possibility of ongoing Olympic participation in another location, that there’s some merit to it,” commissioner Rob Manfred said last June. “I think it is an opportunity to market the game on a really global stage.”
The schedule and insurance would likely be the biggest logistical issues. The 2028 Olympic baseball games are set for July 15-20 at Dodger Stadium, which would likely fall around the All-Star break but stretch longer than the typical Midsummer Classic. There have been insurance issues with the WBC. Those would have to again be worked through for the Olympics.
Baseball was a full-time Olympic sport from 1992-2008. Cuba has won three gold medals (1992, 1996, 2004) and South Korea (2008), Japan (2020), and USA (2000) have one gold medal apiece.
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