Wednesday is the final day of the first round (i.e. pool play) of the 2026 World Baseball Classic and the last week has brought us plenty of unfettered baseball joy. There have been walk-off home runs, high school kids shutting down MLB stars, and major upsets. There are three first-round games remaining and all have enormous stakes.
Here are the WBC standings entering play Wednesday. The top two teams in each pool advance (asterisk indicates the team has clinched a spot in the quarterfinals):
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1. Puerto Rico: 3-1* |
1. Italy: 3-0 |
1. Japan: 4-0* |
1. Venezuela: 3-0* |
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2. Canada: 2-1 |
2. USA: 3-1 |
2. Korea: 2-2* |
2. Dominican Republic: 3-0* |
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3. Cuba: 2-1 |
3. Mexico: 2-1 |
3. Australia: 2-2 |
3. Israel: 2-2 |
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4. Colombia: 1-3 |
4. Great Britain: 1-3 |
4. Chinese Taipei: 2-2 |
4. Netherlands: 1-3 |
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5. Panama: 1-3 |
5. Brazil: 0-4 |
5. Czechia: 0-4 |
5. Nicaragua: 0-4 |
Wednesday’s games will finalize the quarterfinal matchups, and after the first round, it’s a single-elimination tournament. The quarterfinals begin Friday. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though. There’s plenty of baseball to be played between now and then. Here’s what’s at stake Wednesday:
How can Team USA advance at World Baseball Classic? WBC tiebreaker scenarios explained
Stephen Pianovich
Canada vs. Cuba
Time: 3 p.m. on FS1
Starting pitchers: RHP Michael Soroka (CAN) vs. LHP Livan Moinelo (CUB)
This one is simple. It’s a double-elimination game. Winner advances to the quarterfinals, loser goes home. No complicated tiebreakers to worry about. Win and advance. Nice and easy. Moinelo, by the way, has been one of the top pitchers in Japan the last few years. He had a 1.65 ERA in 332 innings for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks from 2024-25.
Italy vs. Mexico
Time: 7 p.m. ET on FS1
Starting pitchers: RHP Aaron Nola (ITA) vs. TBA
With all due respect to Canada vs. Cuba and Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela, this is Wednesday’s main event. This game will decide which two of Italy, Mexico, and USA advance to the quarterfinals. The third team goes home. Italy’s shocking upset of USA on Tuesday means Italy controls its own destiny; the USA has to hope things go their way while watching from the hotel.
A three-team tie is in play and the tiebreaker is the quotient of runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams. Here’s the TL;DR version:
- Italy wins: Italy and USA advance
- Mexico wins while scoring four or fewer runs: Italy and Mexico advance
- Mexico wins while scoring five or more runs: Mexico and USA advance
USA needs Italy to win or Mexico to score five runs. Any other outcome, and they go home. Whether or not USA manager Mark DeRosa knew his team hadn’t clinched after beating Mexico on Monday is irrelevant now. USA’s fate will be determined by a game they’re not playing. It never should’ve come to that in the first place.
Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela
Time: 8 p.m. ET on Tubi
Starting pitchers: RHP Sandy Alcantara (DOM) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (VEN)
Although both teams have already clinched a spot in the quarterfinals, this is not a meaningless game. The winner wins Pool D. The loser will be the runner-up and has to play Japan in the single-elimination quarterfinals. The winner gets Korea. A very good team! But if you had your choice, you’d rather take your chances with Korea in a win-or-go-home, not Japan. Again, both the Dominican Republic and Venezuela have advanced. Today’s game is about seeding and securing a more favorable on-paper matchup in the quarterfinals.
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