This past weekend in women’s college basketball gave us the final regular-season games for each of the major conferences and a second, all-important top 16 seed reveal. Louisville and Duke were both top-three seeds on Sunday morning, with each holding onto hopes of breaking onto the No. 2 line. But after losses to a pair of surging No. 5 seeds in Notre Dame and North Carolina, those hopes are all but dashed. The current No. 1 and No. 2 seeds should remain at the top, in some order, on Selection Sunday.
After falling to No. 16 overall in the selection committee’s reveal, Ohio State made a huge statement, leading by as many as 30 points in an 87-68 win over Michigan State. Other winners from Sunday include Virginia Tech, which beat its in-state rival Virginia by a point to move ahead of the bubble, and TCU, whose defensive clinic against Baylor secured an outright Big 12 title.
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Meanwhile, both Tennessee and Mississippi State continued their losing streaks, which now are six and four games, respectively. Mississippi State finished just 5-11 in SEC play and would be just the second team to ever receive an at-large bid at six games under .500, joining a 2016-17 California team that went 6-12 in the Pac-12.
March has arrived. Here is the latest projected bracket and the five biggest questions entering conference tournaments.
Bracketology — Mar. 2
Last four in
- Clemson
- Virginia
- Colorado
- South Dakota State
First four out
- Richmond
- Texas A&M
- Stanford
- Arizona State
Next four out
- BYU
- Utah
- Mississippi State
- Kansas
Five biggest conference tournament questions
1. Will Texas or Vanderbilt be the final No. 1 Seed?
Vanderbilt temporarily jumped Texas after a decisive win over the Longhorns on Feb. 12. However, after losing at Georgia in their following game, the Commodores fell back to No. 5 overall, where they’ve been ever since.
Both teams closed out the regular season strong with multiple wins over ranked teams in the past two weeks. The deciding factor will likely be a potential meeting between the two teams in the SEC Tournament semifinals on Saturday. Both teams have a double-bye until Friday’s quarterfinals.
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2. Can North Carolina get a hosting spot?
Back-to-back losses to Stanford and Notre Dame in early January must have left a bad taste in UNC’s mouth. Since then, the Tar Heels have gone 12-1, only losing to a Duke team they just beat on Sunday. A win over either Duke or Louisville was necessary for North Carolina to earn a top-four seed, and now they land just on the outside looking in at No. 17 overall.
If UNC can continue its hot streak into the ACC Tournament, the team has a good chance of breaking into the No. 4 line, comprised of all Big Ten teams that will have to beat each other in the conference tournament. West Virginia is also in the running for a No. 4 seed but would need to reach at least the Big 12 Championship Game.
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3. How many at-larde spots are up for grabs?
A pair of mid-major conferences have two teams in the projected NCAA Tournament field, but will that last? Columbia currently has the auto bid from the Ivy League, while North Dakota State is the No. 1 seed in the Summit League Tournament. However, neither team has much of a chance at an at-large bid.
On the other hand, Princeton and South Dakota St are currently in the field as at-larges. Princeton should make March Madness either way, and South Dakota State would at least have a chance at an at-large selection. This means that if both teams win their conference tournaments, two additional at-large spots would open up for the rest of the field.
Right now, that would move both Richmond and Texas A&M from out to in.
4. Will Texas A&M complete a miracle turnaround?
On the morning of Feb. 15, Texas A&M was a 9-11 basketball team ranked 83rd in the NET and with a 2-9 record in SEC play. Even last week, I didn’t mention the Aggies in the bubble discussion because they were still just a game above .500 and would need wins against Mississippi State and Ole Miss to have a serious case for the NCAA Tournament.
Lo and behold, the Aggies got their wins and are now 14-11 and riding a five-game winning streak entering the SEC Tournament. Texas A&M gets a favorable draw as well — it opens against Auburn and would play Mississippi State again in the second round — the Aggies have beaten both teams in their current win streak.
Texas A&M still ranks 61st in the NET but has seven Quad 1-2 wins and, most importantly, is up to 33rd in WAB, better than any other bubble team. The men’s selection committee values WAB heavily when it comes to choosing which teams make the 68-team field, but this is the first year the women’s committee has used WAB.
The Aggies remain the bubble’s biggest question mark, but the outlook in College Station is getting better every day.
5. Which Big 12 team can secure a bubble spot?
While BYU and Utah remain in the Next Four Out, that position is misleading, as both teams closed what was a large gap to the 68-team field and even the First Four Out over the past week to now be in legitimate contention.
On the other hand, Colorado and Arizona State went 0-2 since our latest update. Colorado is clinging to a spot, and Arizona State, with zero Quad-1 wins, is now out of the field. All four teams have everything to play for in the Big 12 Tournament.
Assuming BYU can get past Houston in the first round, its meeting with Utah is essentially an elimination game. Arizona State lost by 26 points to Iowa State earlier in the season, but will likely need to beat the Cyclones in a potential second-round matchup to stay alive. And while one win might be enough for Colorado, the Buffaloes will need to beat Baylor and advance to the Big 12 semifinals to feel at all comfortable.
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