Last season, the Ivy League sent two teams to the NCAA Tournament. Princeton won its fifth straight Ivy League conference tournament to earn an automatic bid, while Columbia earned an at-large bid, facing Vanderbilt in the First Four.
It was Columbia’s first-ever March Madness appearance and the second time (2016) the Ivy League sent multiple schools to the NCAA Tournament.
But could the league do one better this time around and have three teams Dancing?
Right now, I have Harvard as a No. 10 seed and both Columbia and Princeton as No. 11 seeds. These schools all rank in the top 50 of the NET rankings and will help shape the bubble conversation down the stretch.
For mid-major at-large hopefuls, avoiding bad losses is imperative. The Ivy League trio is showing how it’s done. In conference play, these three teams are all undefeated against the rest of the conference.
Contrast that with the Atlantic 10, the other mid-major conference where multiple teams have realistic at-large hopes. While Richmond continues to look strong, George Mason and St. Joseph’s have each taken a bad loss in the last few days, making Sunday’s matchup between the schools effectively an elimination game.
Harvard is 1-2 against the rest of the trio (Columbia is 2-1, Princeton is 1-1), but is in arguably the best shape with just one other loss and quality road wins over Indiana (Quad-1) and St. John’s (Quad-2).
If the Crimson can run the Ivy League table (including a home win vs Princeton on Feb. 28), they’ll enter their conference tournament in good shape.
Columbia has wins over strong mid-majors in Florida Gulf Coast and Ball State and doesn’t have a loss outside of Quads 1-2, but missed a few big opportunities such as a one-point defeat at Villanova that leave it firmly on the bubble.
Princeton has the most Quad-2 (three) and Quad-3 (four) wins of the bunch, but doesn’t have a Quad-1 win and has the only Quad-4 loss of the group (at Duquesne).
While two bids from the Ivy League seems more likely than three, that dream is still alive. Harvard, Columbia and Princeton are all having great seasons. They’ve also been aided by a bubble that is lacking in quality wins, to say the least.
We’ll see who can make it to the finish line.
No. 1 seeds
UCLA (25-1, 13-1 Big Ten): NET 5, SOS 15
After dropping their first game of the season to USC in the Battle of L.A., the Bruins responded with a pair of ranked wins against Michigan State and Illinois.
While Texas arguably has the better overall resume, UCLA is the nation’s only one-loss team and is more than deserving of the top overall seed with nine Quad-1 victories.
*Texas (26-2, 12-1 SEC): NET 3, SOS 2
Vic Schaefer just received a three-year contract extension, taking him through the 2029-30 season, and for good reason. Texas has turned into a battering ram, becoming the first team in 20 years to beat a team ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll in three straight regular-season games.
With three unranked teams remaining on the conference schedule, the hardest part is over for the Longhorns to enter the SEC Tournament as a projected No. 1 seed.
*Notre Dame (24-2, 15-0 ACC): NET 4, SOS 12
The Irish continue to embarrass opponents. After leading Duke by two points at halftime, Notre Dame opened the third quarter on a 17-1 run to put the game out of reach.
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They followed it up by smashing Miami 82-42 as the Hurricanes finished 0-16 from behind the arc. Notre Dame’s last win by fewer than 15 points came on Jan. 12.
South Carolina (24-3, 12-1 SEC): NET 2, SOS 1
It doesn’t matter who the opponent is — South Carolina is not supposed to lose by 29 points. Especially at home. But that’s exactly what happened, as UConn snapped the Gamecocks’ 71-game home winning streak in stunning fashion Sunday.
South Carolina is now outside of the AP top five in a midseason poll for the first time in four years. However, the team’s overall body of work is still strong enough to warrant the final No. 1 seed.
No. 2 seeds
*USC (24-2, 14-1 Big Ten): NET 6, SOS 7
After surviving a scare against Washington, the Trojans remain just outside of No. 1 seed position, just waiting for a slip-up ahead of them. It speaks volumes to the quality of these top teams that the Trojans aren’t already on the top line, but to reiterate, they’ll have at least one and possibly two more games against UCLA to cement their case.
LSU (26-2, 11-2 SEC): NET 10, SOS 53
After losing to Texas, LSU will likely need to win out between now and Selection Sunday to earn a No. 1 seed.
That path is daunting — the Tigers end SEC play with a gauntlet of Kentucky, Alabama and Ole Miss. The conference tournament will be even more challenging. But even a No. 2 seed would be the program’s best since 2008. Under Kim Mulkey, LSU has been a No. 3 seed in three straight seasons.
*UConn (25-3, 15-0 Big East): NET 1, SOS 34
Now extremely safe on the No. 2 line, the Huskies pulled off an enormous win against South Carolina that showed that maybe this team does have what it takes to win a national championship after all.
Next Thursday’s game against Creighton is UConn’s biggest hurdle to finishing conference play undefeated for the 10th time in 12 seasons.
*TCU (25-3, 13-2 Big 12): NET 9, SOS 63
The top 16 reveal was a good sign for TCU, which is now positioned as clearly the Big 12’s top team. Combined with a loss from NC State, the Horned Frogs are now on the No. 2 line as their win over Notre Dame continues to jump off the page.
All three of TCU’s losses this season have come to teams currently in hosting position.
No. 3 seeds
North Carolina (24-4, 12-3 ACC): NET 14, SOS 38
Each of North Carolina’s last five games have been decided by within 10 points, but the Tar Heels have won them all and now have 10 wins against Quads 1-2.
A tough week awaits on the road against both a Louisville team coming off four straight wins and rival Duke with seeding in the ACC Tournament on the line.
NC State (21-5, 13-2 ACC): NET 17, SOS 14
The Wolfpack were the biggest surprise of the top 16 reveal, sliding into the final No. 2 seed behind four Quad-1 wins, no losses outside of Quad-1 and a head-to-head win over Duke.
However, a loss at North Carolina just hours after the reveal sent NC State back down to the No. 3 line. The school hosts College Gameday on Sunday against Notre Dame with a chance to make a massive statement.
Kentucky (21-4, 10-3 SEC): NET 21, SOS 36
LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina are a murderer’s row to end the regular season. Kentucky probably only needs one win to secure a hosting position as any of those wins would be the Wildcats’ best of the year.
In each of its four losses this season, Kentucky has been held to fewer than 60 points. The team is averaging more than 81 points per game across 21 wins, with at least 70 points in all but one of those contests.
Tennessee (20-6, 7-6 SEC): NET 11, SOS 4
On a three-game winning streak for the first time in conference play this season, Tennessee also has its highest projected NCAA Tournament seed of the year.
Already with as many wins as all of last season, Kim Caldwell’s team leads the nation in made 3-point field goals per game with 10.6.
No. 4 seeds
Duke (20-7, 11-4 ACC): NET 8, SOS 6
Back-to-back losses have sent Duke down to a tie for fifth place in the ACC standings. The top four teams get a double-bye straight into the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, making upcoming clashes against North Carolina and Florida State even more important.
Kansas State (24-4, 12-3 Big 12): NET 7, SOS 67
The selection committee punished Kansas State for having just two Quad-1 wins, unexpectedly listing the Wildcats as the final No. 3 seed. Since then, they lost a Quad-1 opportunity at West Virginia but will get two more down the stretch: at home against Baylor on Monday and at Iowa State on March 2.
Oklahoma State (21-5, 11-4 Big 12): NET 24, SOS 61
Over the last week, Oklahoma State played two road games against teams from Utah. They went 1-1 and each game ended 68-64. That was enough to keep the Cowgirls in hosting position, but the competition is tight.
With three games against middle-of-the-road Big 12 teams remaining, Oklahoma State will be favored in each matchup but won’t want to risk another slip-up.
Maryland (21-6, 11-5 Big Ten): NET 27, SOS 20
The Terrapins earned their fifth Quad-1 win of the season Monday against Michigan and have now won four of their last five games after losing four of the previous five.
With just two games left on the Big Ten schedule, Maryland is off until next Thursday, where they’ll face Indiana in a tough but winnable road game that would be another big resume boost.
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