WNBA-best Lynx have been impossible to beat at home: How they’ve done it and what it means for title chances

On the Minnesota Lynx contingent’s flight home from All-Star Weekend in Indianapolis, coach Cheryl Reeve joked with Courtney Williams about shutting down the StudBudz, the stream Williams does with teammate Natisha Hiedeman.

“You know what’s a common misconception? Everybody always be like, ‘Cheryl’s gonna shut down the StudBudz. If y’all play bad, Cheryl’s gonna shut y’all down,'” Williams said, while filming for the stream on her phone. 

“I’ll tell you what, we don’t win Tuesday, this shit’s done,” Reeve joked.

“So we’ll win. Believe it, we’ll win,” Williams replied. 

Sure enough, the Lynx cruised past the lowly Chicago Sky on Tuesday, 91-68, in an impressive return to regular season action. The victory not only ensured that the StudBudz could continue streaming, but moved the Lynx to a league-best 13-0 at home this season. 

The Lynx will be in action again on Friday when they host the Las Vegas Aces, who have won three of their last four to climb back .500. Ahead of a tough test to continue their perfect start at the Target Center, here’s a look at how the Lynx have been so dominant at home, and what it says about their title chances. 

Where does the Lynx’s 13-0 start rank all-time?

The Lynx are the ninth team to win at least their first 10 home games in a season, and their 13-0 start ranks fourth on the all-time list. Notably, Minnesota is the only franchise that has started at least 10-0 at home multiple times. The Lynx also did so in 2013, when they went on to win the second of their four titles in the 2010s. 

The 2010 Storm and 2001 Sparks are the only teams to go undefeated at home for an entire season, but both did so during significantly shorter seasons than the league has now. The WNBA played 34 games in 2010 and 32 games in 2001. Now, with a 44-game schedule, the Lynx would have to go 22-0 to accomplish the same feat. 

How have the Lynx found so much home success?

Soft schedule

It’s impossible to fake your way to a 13-0 home start, but there’s no question the Lynx have benefitted from a soft schedule in the first half of the season. Here are the Lynx’s home opponents this season, in order from best record to worst:

Nine of their 13 home games have come against teams with a losing record, and seven of them have come against the four worst teams in the league. They haven’t had to play the reigning champion New York Liberty, the Atlanta Dream or the Indiana Fever at home yet. 

Overall, the Lynx have the second-hardest remaining schedule in the league, with an average opponent winning percentage of .532. 

Dominant defense

Cheryl Reeve has long been one of the best defensive coaches in the league, and the Lynx are once again elite on that side of the ball. At home, they are almost impossible to score against. 

Here’s a look at their home/road splits in a number of key defensive categories

The Lynx rank first in the league in home defensive rating, second in home field goal defense, first in home opponent eFG%, first in home opponent free throw rate and first in home opponent turnover rate. 

Has their schedule helped boost those numbers? Sure, but their three best individual defensive games at home this season — by defensive rating — have come against the Mercury, the Mercury and the Aces. When the Lynx really dial it up at home, good luck. 

What does Lynx’s home-court advantage mean for their title chances?

Thanks in large part to their perfect home record, the Lynx are in first place at 21-4 and have a 3.5-game lead on the reigning champion New York Liberty in the race for the No. 1 seed. After the WNBA tweaked the playoff format for this season, having home-court advantage throughout the playoffs is more important than ever. 

The best-of-three first round has been switched from a 2-1 format to a 1-1-1 format, which not only ensures both teams get a playoff game, but that the higher seed has a potential winner-take-all game at home. And, most notably, the Finals has been changed from best-of-five to best-of-seven. 

“We’ve always raved about how great being at home and playing here is in front of our fans,” MVP favorite Napheesa Collier said during the playoffs last season. “We take a lot of pride in defending our home court. So like Coach said, if we do that, do what is one of our principles, then we’re going to win.”

The only three teams that started off with better home winning streaks than this Lynx group — the 2010 Storm, 2001 Sparks and 2023 Aces — all went on to win the title. When you look at the Lynx’s home net rating (plus-19.9) that also bodes well for postseason success. 

Here’s a look at the best home net ratings of all time, and how each team’s season ended:

Nothing is guaranteed for the Lynx, especially after the Liberty agreed to a deal with 2019 Finals MVP Emma Meesseman earlier this month, but they have the talent and the statistical profile of a champion.