Why the rush to move on from David Moyes?

In the immediate aftermath of Tuesday’s defeat to Bournemouth, I couldn’t help but react to a post on X by an Evertonian who had been at the game and, in their understandable frustration at seeing the team capitulate in a mad 10 minutes, had commented that at least there should only, hopefully, be 12 more games left of David Moyes’ second spell at Everton.

My quote-tweet (or whatever they’re calling it now) was possibly harsh, but in the spur of the moment, it felt like it needed to be said: “Everton are eighth. People need to get a grip.”

Now, if I had my time again, I’d take a breath and probably reword it slightly, but the underlying point would still be the same.

Everton are in eighth place in the Premier League, with 12 games of the season to go. As frustrating as some of the results and performances have been, they are as close to Chelsea in fifth as they are to Leeds United down in 15th.

By the time Everton play Manchester United on Monday, the situation is likely to have shifted again. The Toffees will probably be in the bottom half, given the congestion of teams in that mid-table pack. And yes, it’s true that there’s a tough run coming up between now and the end of the season.

But calling for the manager’s head, when all Evertonians have been asking for, for what’s felt like five years now, has been the kind of safe, boring, middling season we have seen plenty of other less illustrious clubs manage to have in the past few campaigns.

Right now, Everton are more than in with a shout of European football. Are they good enough? Possibly not. But I can tell you this: Neither are Bournemouth, nor Sunderland, or Fulham, or Crystal Palace. Newcastle United are, on paper, but they aren’t able to string any consistency together either. Brighton, “the model club” have won one game in 13 in the league. Brentford, the flavour of the month (and Keith Andrews is doing a fine job) are three points above Everton in seventh. 

There has been so much ire directed at Moyes, and some of it is perfectly understandable. We all know he can be incredibly frustrating, and cast your minds back to his first stint in charge: There were moments he’d leave you tearing your hair out. There were also moments of brilliance and magic and capturing what it means to be an Evertonian.

With Moyes, you take the rough with the smooth. When he returned a little over a year ago, Everton were staring down the barrel of yet another relegation fight. Not only did he drag the team away from danger last term, but by any reasonable, results-based measure, there has been tangible progress this season.

With a third of the season left to run, Opta Analyst has Everton finishing in 10th on 52 points. That would feel like a disappointing points tally from here, if not a wholly disappointing position in the table. But with so few matches left to play, one or two results will see such predictions alter dramatically across the board.

Since Moyes returned, Everton have won 18 league games out of 45 — that ranks tied for eighth in the competition in that time. They have 14 draws (ranking second) and lost 13 times. Of the 17 ever-present teams in the competition in that period, only Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool have suffered fewer defeats.

Everton have also kept it tight at the back. Despite ranking 10th in the competition for expected goals against (xGA), with 58.2, the Toffees have conceded just 49 goals, which only Villa, Man City and Arsenal can better. That level of overperformance is likely not sustainable, but then again Everton have a fantastic goalkeeper and defenders who are certainly willing to put their bodies on the line to make blocks.

Moyes could certainly improve in attack — Everton do not score enough goals, or have enough shots. But there is clearly a solid enough basis to build from.

Everton may not end up qualifying for Europe, but it was clearly not the primary objective this season. If it had been, surely they would have spent more in the winter transfer window.

An opportunity has presented itself, though, and it would be brilliant for Everton to take it. If they do not, then of course it will be frustrating, but that should not mean Evertonians forget how far the club has come back on in a short space of time.

Moyes has been largely responsible for that, and while he deserves some criticism, the work he has done, and continues to do, should be taken into account.

In the summer, he will be into the final year of his deal, and then The Friedkin Group may have a decision to make: Do they offer Moyes an extension, or are they happy for him to see out his contract? The last thing they should be considering right now, though, is moving on from him just yet.

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