Why the Chiefs don’t look like themselves, per NFL coaches

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) have backed themselves into a corner with next to no margin for error in the final seven games of the season. For those of us who said “don’t worry, the Chiefs will figure it out,” it’s getting late really early.

The Chiefs are now 3 1/2 games behind Denver for the AFC West lead, meaning their chances of a 10th straight division title are nearly dead before Thanksgiving. And Sunday’s home match against the 8-2 Colts (coming off a bye, mind you) on CBS at 1 p.m. ET represents either the continuation of one streak or the beginning of a new one.

Patrick Mahomes has never lost three straight regular-season starts which, at 122 starts, is the longest stretch by a quarterback to begin his career in league history. A loss at home to Indianapolis would mark three straight and place the Chiefs below .500 going into next week’s game against the Cowboys. But a win could spark the winning streak many have been anticipating for K.C., signaling the start of its master plan to get back into the postseason.

I surveyed several coaches and executives who are on teams that played the 2025 Chiefs and the 2024 Chiefs. Last year’s team went 15-2 on its way to a third straight Super Bowl appearance, going 12-0 in one-score games for the most such wins in league history.

This year’s iteration of the Chiefs can’t win a close game. Kansas City is 0-5 in those situations, with the worst one-score record in the league this year.

A few themes emerged in talking with those sources. For one, there is still plenty of respect for the Chiefs. No one I spoke with has been willing to shovel a speck of dirt on their graves just yet.

But more importantly, almost everyone pointed to age as a factor for these Chiefs. That is not the only thing holding Kansas City back this year, but it seems to be the one that has a consensus with it.

Offensive coach No. 1: “Honestly they are very similar to last year; the difference last year is they won all the one-score games. They have more explosive receivers than when we played them last year. They still are top 3 in the league in [fewest] turnovers lost on offense and they were high up (No. 4) last year as well. To me the thing that is catching up with them is fatigue and age. They have played so many seasons in a row into the month of February it just eventually takes a toll on your body and I don’t think their depth, especially on the offensive and defensive lines, has developed to a point to let their stars rest like Chris Jones.

“I think the young offensive tackle [Josh Simmons] is talented but you start playing the teams with elite pass rushers, it will limit how long Mahomes can hold the ball. That’s usually how he makes his back-breaking plays. The defense will still make you grind out points and yards but the offense hasn’t found the quick play touchdowns like they did in the past with Tyreek Hill or a younger Kareem Hunt who could go the distance.”

Offensive coach No. 2: “They are older with 95 [Chris Jones] on defense and 87 [Travis Kelce] on offense, even though those guys still make plays in spots. I feel like they had more consistent production around Kelce last year. Same a little bit on defense with Jones. Jones always took some plays off, but he could win when he wanted. I don’t know that he wins the same two years later. He can’t turn it on and off like he could. I think because of this, Spags has had to generate more pressure, and therefore has had to blitz and stunt more than he did [in past years.]”

Offensive coach No. 3: “Chris Jones is diminishing as a game wrecker and can be moved and they’re not dynamic aside from when rushing the passer. Then you’re not afraid of the offense running away with it like usual. Xavier Worthy hasn’t shown anything to be afraid of outside of speed. Kelce is diminishing. [Rashee] Rice just got back but not playing up to par. Run game is nonexistent. They really haven’t done much to help Pat, unfortunately.”

Front office executive No. 1: “Biggest difference I think the real difference is OL play decline, receiver decline (also absence of Rice), Kelce not as potent as he once was. Also I think their secondary is average.”

Front office executive No. 2: “Their losses have come to playoff teams on one score games. They used to win those. I don’t think it is a “sound the alarms” situation. Offense and defense still rank high in EPA [third on offense, 12th on defense.] But a couple of things: Offensively the offensive line isn’t what it was last year. Loss of [Joe] Thuney, Trey Smith not playing as well since he got paid and LT being a roller coaster. That coupled with early season suspension to Rice and the injury to Worthy, they couldn’t get their feet under themselves. The lack of consistency and attention to detail overall is holding them back in the close games they used to always wins.

“Defensively they have tried to replace Justin Reid with youth and they lost [Tershawn] Wharton, who gave them eight-plus sacks and 40 pressures, with Tillery, magnified by Chris Jones not playing as well. They have never been a big run team, so when the pass game isn’t in sync because the players haven’t always been in the lineup, that slows them down.”

Defensive coach No. 1: “No difference actually at all. That’s the thing. Defenses have adjusted to beat them and they haven’t adjusted back. Kelce is nowhere close to the player he was in 2023 and that was nowhere close to the guy he was in 2021. He’s a guy in free fall from a skill standpoint that’s just age showing up.”

Defensive coach No. 2: “Offensively they still present problems to defenses with the QB, TE and speed at WR. Having Rice back makes them really explosive in many different ways. They are still a very scary group. Defensively they are not great in the money area: red zone, third down, hitting the QB.”

It was interesting to hear a defensive coach speak so highly of the team’s offense while not being impressed by the defense. Indeed, Kansas City is 10th in defending the red zone (eighth last year), 23rd in third-down stops (up from 26th a year ago) and ninth in team pressures (slightly up from 10th in 2024.)

But here’s something that came up that I wasn’t expecting: confidence. Might the proud Chiefs be a bit shaken by what’s happening with them?

Offensive coach No. 3: “Effort. I’m not sure how much belief they have right now.”

Defensive coach No. 2: “The league saw Philly beat them down. And not just beat them but actually pummel them. Then they start the season with a loss in Brazil and again to Philly. Doubt starts to creep in.”

Front office executive No. 2: “They will turn the corner because Mahomes is too good. There’s maybe more frustration than [a lack of] confidence. They have played in too many big games with this core to lose that.”

Whether or not the Chiefs have all the confidence in the world, they aren’t getting any younger as the season gets later and their playoff chances dim. No one will want to see the Chiefs if they can get into the playoffs, but things must turn around beginning this week against the Colts.