The most significant ranking in the penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings had nothing to do with Miami or Texas. Instead, the playoff committee showed their hand.
With the final spot in the rankings, the CFP Committee ranked James Madison at No. 25 in the country. The Dukes are 11-1 and face Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game on Friday. By winning, James Madison can all but assure itself a spot in the final rankings for the first time in program history.
But if JMU accomplishes the feat and finishes as a ranked conference champion, it could set off a nightmare scenario for the ACC that would leave them out of the playoff entirely.
For clarity, let’s go back to the protocol. The top five conference champions are guaranteed auto bids in the College Football Playoff field. It’s very specifically the top five conference champions; the Power Four conferences are not implicitly guaranteed a spot. Technically, all five spots could be taken by Group of Six champions, if they were earned in the rankings.
When the CFP bracket is mocked, No. 12 Miami plays the role of the fourth conference champion auto-bid. There’s just one problem: The Hurricanes — the best team in the ACC — aren’t eligible for the auto-bid. In fact, thanks to a bloated conference and convoluted set of tiebreakers, unranked Duke plays No. 17 Virginia for the ACC crown.
And in Duke, the ACC has its perfect, disastrous storm.
The Blue Devils had a lackluster season, limping out to a 7-5 record. Three of those losses came in nonconference play, with horrendous performances against Illinois, Tulane and UConn. But when it comes to conference contention, none of those games matter. Duke’s only losses came against Georgia Tech and Virginia.
And therefore, Duke is now in the ACC Championship Game as one of the weakest conference finalists in years. As only 3.5-point underdogs, the Blue Devils have a serious chance of pulling the upset. But with five losses, Duke would be all but guaranteed to finish behind both the American Conference champion and Sun Belt champ James Madison, despite winning a power conference championship.
If James Madison was unranked, it would be easy for the committee to sit back and say that they consider the Blue Devils and Dukes as comparable teams. A win over No. 17 Virginia would supersede any on JMU’s schedule. But by ranking James Madison, the committee has shown their hand.
James Madison is a top 25 team in the eyes of the committee. Duke is not. And furthermore, based on their resume, the Blue Devils aren’t anywhere close. If Duke wins the ACC, the conference could become the first power league to ever miss the 12-team College Football Playoff.
At the Group of Six level, conferences are much more sensitive about tiebreaker rules setting up their teams for failure. Some work around it with blatant playoff-driven advantages. The primary tiebreaker in the American Conference is simply CFP Rankings. Even though No. 24 North Texas has a better record, No. 20 Tulane is hosting the title game for the express purpose of giving them an easier path to the playoff. Not so in the ACC.
SMU was painfully close to helping the league avoid this fate. The Mustangs led California late in the fourth quarter on Saturday night. A win would have elevated SMU and Virginia as 7-1 teams. Instead, the Mustangs’ loss pushed them into a five-way tie for second. And coming out of the tiebreaker — combined conference opponent record — was perhaps the weakest team in the group.
Virginia is favored to win the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. If the Cavaliers do, they’ll easily slot into the CFP with the No. 11 seed. Their chances wouldn’t be great in a road game against No. 6 Ole Miss, but at least the ACC would send a champion to the postseason.
But thanks to James Madison’s No. 25 ranking, the ACC is officially on the hot seat. A Duke conference championship would spell disaster for the league, and end with two Group of Six teams in the field for the first time ever.
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