Why Amon-Ra St. Brown’s injury could be key factor in Lions’ quest for playoffs

It is now officially crunch time for several NFL teams, as the race for the playoffs has begun to intensify. This is actually the first time in NFL history where there are five divisions that include a lead under one game this late in a season. That includes the NFC North, as the 9-3 Chicago Bears lead the 8-3-1 Green Bay Packers, who are one spot above the 7-5 Detroit Lions.

The Bears are now the No. 1 seed in the NFC following the Los Angeles Rams’ shocking loss to the Carolina Panthers, but Chicago’s newfound top-seed hope could be shortlived. This Sunday, the Bears have to travel to Green Bay to play the Packers who would overtake Chicago in the division with a win. But where does all this leave the Lions?

Detroit is now officially a long shot to repeat as division champions, listed at +950 over at FanDuel Sportsbook. In fact, the Lions are currently listed as underdogs to make the playoffs straight up at +122. Following their Thanksgiving loss to the Packers, the Lions are in treacherous waters, and on Thursday night they’ll host a red-hot Dallas Cowboys team that has won three straight games, a run which includes back-to-back victories over last season’s Super Bowl participants. 

Check out what SportsLine data expert Stephen Oh’s projections say about the Lions’ chances:

NFC North postseason chances, via SportsLine

Games and seasons don’t come down to one play or one player, but if the Lions don’t have this one player on the field Thursday against the Cowboys, their playoff chances will take a massive hit. That player is wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The impact of Amon-Ra St. Brown

The Lions’ WR1 suffered a low-ankle sprain early in the Week 13 loss to Green Bay, according to NFL Media. The injury can sideline a player for one to two weeks, but St. Brown is going to try to play through it. Remember, Detroit is already without tight end Sam LaPorta, so losing St. Brown could ground Jared Goff’s offense.

According to CBS Sports Research, the Lions rank No. 1 in yards per play with St. Brown on the field since he began his NFL career in 2021, and No. 25 with him off the field. Detroit also ranks No. 2 in offensive efficiency with St. Brown on the field, and No. 16 with him sidelined. His 505 receptions rank second all-time in a player’s first five career seasons, and he’s recorded at least 1,161 yards receiving in each of the last three seasons, and double-digit touchdowns in the last two seasons.

While the Cowboys famously had a terrible defense early in the season, that is no longer the case. Dallas acquired star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson at the trade deadline, added linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. to the lineup, and cornerback Trevon Diggs is expected back in the near future as well. And those consecutive wins against last seaon’s AFC and NFC champs? The Cowboys are actually the only team in NFL history to beat both of the prior season’s Super Bowl teams in a five-day span. The fact that they came back from a 21-0 deficit against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12, and then fended off Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving just adds to the story.

If Lions fans are looking for a bit of good news, this team has alternated wins and losses in eight straight games. Plus, the last time the Lions and Cowboys met, Jerry Jones experienced his largest home loss in the form of a 47-9 beatdown. However, this Lions defense has struggled as of late, and the offense could be dealt a tough hand in not having LaPorta or St. Brown on the field for this pivotal Week 14 NFC showdown.