Conventional wisdom holds that Major League Baseball’s amateur draft is less popular than those hosted by other leagues — like, say, the National Football League’s — in part because the players tend to be years away from contributing at the game’s highest level. While that’s often the case, some players from last year’s draft are showing that there are exceptions to be found.
Just four weeks into the season, the Athletics have promoted first baseman Nick Kurtz to the big leagues. Kurtz, the fourth pick in last summer’s draft, is now the third player from the class to reach The Show, joining Houston Astros outfielder Cam Smith and Los Angeles Angels right-hander Ryan Johnson. Not too shabby for a class that’s still a couple months away from reaching the one-year mark.
You might find yourself wondering, just what 2024 draftee will be next to debut? Below, CBS Sports has highlighted six players who seem to have the most favorable odds. (Do note that the players are ranked in order of their expected arrival.)
My favorite prospect in last year’s class, Wetherholt slipped to No. 7 after missing half the season with a hurt hamstring. Passing on him was a defensible decision at the time — not every club is going to feel comfortable taking a smaller-framed player with a history of soft-tissue injuries — but it could soon look like a mistake. Wetherholt is tearing up Double-A with an offensive game that’s by and large similar to Travis Bazzana’s (albeit with less slugging capacity). It’s worth noting that he’s thus far seen most of his action at shortstop. I don’t know if that’ll end up mattering much in the long run — St. Louis already employs one promising young shortstop — but the added optionality should help ensure that he makes his debut at some point before the summer ends.
Burns was easily the top pitcher in the class in my estimation. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that he was recently promoted to Double-A after bullying High-A batters for three starts. (He struck out 20 of the 45 batters he faced and surrendered just five hits.) Burns has a blistering fastball and two quality breaking balls, along with a history of throwing strikes. Provided he stays well, the Reds should keep him on the fast track. To phrase it a different way, put me down for the under if Rhett Lowder’s 22 minor-league starts can serve as the line on Burns’ big-league debut.
You knew the No. 1 pick had to be included. Bazzana, who enamored the Guardians with his offensive polish and face-of-the-franchise caliber makeup, has spent the opening act of his first full professional season in Double-A. He’s struck out more than I would have anticipated for someone with his bat-to-ball and zone-management skills, but to be fair it’s a small sample and he’s nevertheless produced at an above-average level (relative to his team and the league). Presuming Bazzana settles in over the coming weeks, the Guardians should have ample competitive incentive to hasten his arrival in Cleveland sometime later this summer.
Smith, the fifth pick in the draft, is a low-slot lefty who struck out 17 of the first 41 batters he faced in Double-A thanks to a powerful fastball-slider combination. On the one hand, the White Sox have nothing to play for this season except pride and draft positioning, suggesting they can take it slow with their prospect development plans and ensure they get it right. On the other hand, this organization could use some wins — be it literal or metaphorical — in the worst way. As such, I could see Smith reaching the majors this year, perhaps even earlier than originally expected.
Perhaps the biggest question about developing two-way players is what a team should do when one aspect of their game is far superior to the other. The Royals haven’t yet announced anything on Caglianone’s pitching future, but … well, I would be surprised if he takes the mound again anytime soon. He’s simply too far ahead offensively thanks to his prodigious strength and outstanding feel for the barrel. His start to this season in Double-A (including six extra-base hits in his first 15 games) suggests there’s no incentive to delay his arrival by seeing if he can work through his command woes. That’s not to suggest Caglianone is without risk or concern as a hitter: his approach caused some teams to grade him outside of the top 10 picks in the draft, and he’s thus far K’d nearly three times as often as he’s walked. I think the Royals will press the button on Caglianone this summer, but they’d be right to wait until after he improves his approach.
The Angels employ the most aggressive promotional strategy in baseball. The aforementioned Johnson debuted without even pitching in the minors, and it’s not like Zach Neto or Nolan Schanuel spent much time on the farm either. That precedent, plus Moore’s hot start to his professional career, made it seem more likely than not he’d be in the majors by now. Alas, he’s off to a rotten start at Double-A that has seen him record one extra-base knock and 11 more strikeouts than walks in his first 13 games. It’s early, fear not, but his value to his team hinges entirely on his bat. If and when he starts hitting, it’ll be safe to resume waiting on his arrival.
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