For the first time since 1978, the Vanderbilt Commodores come into a game against a ranked opponent as a favorite, as No. 17 Vandy has a 2.5-point edge over No. 10 LSU in Nashville on Saturday.
It’s the biggest home game of the Clark Lea era because it’s the first time the Commodores have legitimate expectations against a top-tier SEC foe at home. Last year’s stunning upset of No. 1 Alabama was a seminal moment for the program, but now they have a chance to solidify themselves as more than just a good story and stake a claim to being one of the SEC’s top teams.
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They’ll do so against an LSU team with an excellent defense, but an offense that has struggled to live up to expectations to this point. Saturday’s game in Nashville could very well be an early College Football Playoff eliminator for both teams.
A loss would be the second of the season for both teams with some stiff competition left on each squad’s schedule. Vanderbilt still has dates with Missouri, Texas and Tennessee on its schedule, while LSU will face Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma in the back half of the season. A win on Saturday puts a feather in their cap and gives them a bit of cushion to still sustain a loss and keep hopes of a CFP berth alive at 10-2. The losing team, meanwhile, would likely need to run the table to land an at-large spot.
Where to watch LSU vs. Vanderbilt live
Date: Saturday, October 18 | Time: Noon ET
Location: FirstBank Stadium — Nashville, Tennessee
TV: ABC | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
LSU vs. Vanderbilt: Need to know
Can Diego Pavia avoid turnovers? Vanderbilt should have beaten Alabama on the road in Tuscaloosa in their first chance to make a statement in SEC play, but two brutal turnovers in the red zone from their super senior quarterback cost them dearly. This week, Pavia will be in the friendly confines of FirstBank Stadium in Nashville and should be much more comfortable, but he still needs to prove he can toe the line between sufficiently hyped for a big matchup while also staying composed in the big moments.
We’ve seen him be spectacular before in this kind of spot, but that’s been as the underdog with no real expectations. Now he and the ‘Dores are favored against a top-10 opponent, and while they need him to be brilliant, they also need him to be the steady hand guiding the ship. LSU’s defense is 12th in the country with eight interceptions this season, and they’ll be looking to steal some possessions from Pavia if he isn’t smart with the football.
Can LSU wake up the offense and find some explosives? Coming into the season, everyone was excited to see Garrett Nussmeier and this offense in his second season as the starter, but through six games the Tigers have been painfully pedestrian. The Tigers are 97th in the country in plays of 30 yards or more (and 87th in plays of 20-plus yards). That’s not good enough for a team with as much talent as they have and a veteran quarterback under center.
Injuries have undoubtedly played a part in slowing down LSU’s offense, including Nussmeier being banged up for much of the season. However, if you’re on the field you have to produce, and to this point the Tigers have not been as explosive as they’d like to be and it’s allowed opponents to hang around. LSU’s defense has done its job, but with this upcoming difficult stretch, the Tigers’ offense has to find another gear. Alabama was able to create three 30-plus-yard pass plays against Vanderbilt that helped them to the win, and LSU will need to crack the code on how to do the same.
Is Vanderbilt ready for the moment? This is uncharted territory for this Vanderbilt team. With how hard they fought in Tuscaloosa only to come away with a 16-point loss, we’ll find out how just how resilient they are as they prepare for another big test. Clark Lea and this coaching staff have done an unbelievable job building this program up to where it can have a ranked-on-ranked game like this, but taking that next step to winning those games is an entirely different animal. Pavia individually has to be better than he was at Alabama, but the entire team has to elevate their performance as well.
This figures to be a slugfest, and that means this game might come down to who takes advantage of the few opportunities to make a big play when they present themselves in all three phases of the game. That’s what Vanderbilt didn’t do against Alabama with the red zone turnovers, and we’ll see if they can be more solid in those key moments this week.
LSU vs. Vanderbilt prediction, pick
Perhaps this will be the game LSU’s offense wakes from its slumber, but I think this has a similar feel and cadence to most LSU games we’ve seen this season where the defense sets the tone. That wouldn’t be all that far off from the Vandy-Alabama game either, where the Tide didn’t stretch things out until late in the game. Everything in my being wants to pick Vanderbilt, and I do think they will be in this all the way to the final whistle and could come out on top. But I think the best play in this game is the under. It feels like a game that finishes 23-20. I’m just not entirely sure who is the team that comes out on top. Pick: Under 48.5
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