Once again, the future of the Tampa Bay Rays is murky. On Thursday, Rays owner Stu Sternberg announced the team will not move forward with plans to construct a new $1.3 billion ballpark in St. Petersburg, citing “a series of events beginning in October that no one could have anticipated.” Among those events was Hurricane Milton, which severely damaged Tropicana Field in October.
“After careful deliberation, we have concluded we cannot move forward with the new ballpark and development project at this moment. A series of events beginning in October that no one could have anticipated led to this difficult decision,” Sternberg said in a statement. “… Our commitment to the vitality and success of the Rays organization is unwavering. We continue to focus on finding a ballpark solution that serves the best interest of our region, Major League Baseball and our organization.”
Rays say they ‘cannot move forward’ with new stadium: ‘Our commitment … is unwavering’
Mike Axisa
Approval for the $1.3 billion ballpark was granted last July. The new stadium was going to be built essentially on the other side of the Tropicana Field parking lot and was scheduled to open in 2028. The design included a surrounding ballpark village with commercial and residential space, and an entertainment venue. The Rays are walking away from all of it.
Following Hurricane Milton, the Rays claimed they could not afford construction delays, which led to political infighting. The team faced a March 31 deadline to show they could come up with their $700 million obligation for the new ballpark. Now, for all intents and purposes, it is back to the drawing board. There is no new stadium in the works.
The Rays will play their 2025 home games in Tampa proper at George M. Steinbrenner Field, spring training home of the New York Yankees. Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner has previous called that a one-year solution, not a permanent arrangement. Sternberg said the plan is to repair the Trop in time for 2026. What happens long-term is unclear.
With the caveat that, right now, no one, not even MLB or Sternberg, knows what will happen long-term, here are some possible outcomes for the Rays now that the franchise’s new ballpark deal is no more.
Will Sternberg be forced to sell?
Whether he is “forced” to sell is a matter of semantics. The chances Sternberg, who has owned the Rays since 2005, sells the team have never been higher. Commissioner Rob Manfred and several owners are reportedly pushing him to do so. Why are they pushing Sternberg to sell and not, say, Athletics owner John Fisher? Because of the stadium mess. Sternberg’s new stadium deal fell apart. Fisher’s Oakland to Sacramento to Las Vegas plan is still moving forward, as dubious as it may seem.
The Baltimore Orioles were sold for $1.75 billion last year. The Kansas City Royals ($1 billion in 2020) and Miami Marlins ($1.3 billion in 2018), two small-market teams like the Rays, were also sold for 10-figure sums in recent years. Sternberg may ultimately be forced to sell the team, but he’ll be make out just fine. The fact Manfred and some owners were already trying to push Sternberg out, and now the new stadium deal has fallen apart, makes a sale feel inevitable. Likely sooner rather than later.
Will the Rays relocate?
Manfred has insisted that he wants to keep the Rays in the Tampa area and he wants to keep baseball in Florida in general, though we have more than three decades of evidence showing us it doesn’t work. The Rays are competitive more often than not and the Marlins won two World Series titles fairly early in their existence, yet both franchises rank near the bottom of the league in attendance each year, and the Marlins secured a new ballpark not that long ago (2012).
The Rays threatened relocation under Sternberg — who can forget the cockamamie two-city plan with Montreal and Tampa? — and a new owner could come in with the intention of moving the franchise elsewhere. Hall of Famer Barry Larkin recently joined the Orlando Dreamers, a group trying to lure an MLB franchise to Orlando. In addition to a potential expansion franchise, the Dreamers have also previously expressed interest in bringing the Rays to Orlando.
The Dreamers are merely one of several groups trying to bring Major League Baseball to a new city. Others include the Portland Diamond Project, Big League Utah (Salt Lake City), and Music City Baseball (Nashville). A return to Montreal has been considered possible as well. Point is, yes, relocation is on the table for the Rays. Maybe more than ever. That will continue to be true until shovels are in the ground in St. Petersburg, Tampa, or the surrounding area.
Could the Rays stay in St. Pete?
Sure, it’s possible. After all, a stadium plan was in motion as recently as early October, before Hurricane Milton damaged the Trop. A new owner could come in and perhaps rekindle that $1.3 billion project, or come up with an entirely new ballpark plan that keeps the team in St. Petersburg. Again, so much is unsettled right now. There’s no sense in ruling out a long-term stay in St. Pete.
Really though, a move across the bay to Tampa would be best if MLB and Rays ownership (Sternberg or otherwise) insist on keeping the team in the area. A new ballpark in Tampa would put the Rays closer to the population center and also make it easier to draw from Orlando. Of course, Sternberg and the Rays have been trying to secure a ballpark closer to Tampa for the better part of a decade now. If it were easy, it would have happened already.
“If in the coming months a new owner, who demonstrates a commitment to honoring their agreements and our community priorities, emerges, we will consider a partnership to keep baseball in St. Pete,” St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch told the Tampa Bay Times. “But we will not put our city’s progress on hold as we await a collaborative and community-focused baseball partner.”
Could the Rays stay in the Trop long-term?
This seems very unlikely. The team’s lease at Tropicana Field runs through 2027 and the plan is to return there in 2026, after the roof and other parts of the ballpark that were damaged by Hurricane Milton are repaired. Long-term though, the Rays need a new stadium. The Trop opened in 1990, making it MLB’s seventh oldest ballpark, and although the team has done what it can to liven the place up under Sternberg, it is a bottom-tier MLB facility. The Rays need a new stadium. No one disputes that.
Now that the new ballpark deal has fallen apart, it is possible the Rays will look into a short-term lease extension at Tropicana Field just to give the team a home as they sort out their future. The new stadium won’t happen and it will be impossible to plan a new ballpark, get the necessary approvals, and get it built in time for 2028. Playing 2025 at GMS Field and the 2026-27 seasons at the Trop might be the best possible outcome right now. A short-term extension to cover, say, 2028-30 could then be an option. A long-term stay at Tropicana Field can not happen though. The Rays need a new home badly.
What about a minor-league stopgap?
The John Fisher plan, basically. Last season was the last year on the Athletics’ lease at the Oakland Coliseum and, rather than stay there on a short-term extension until their Las Vegas ballpark tentatively opens in 2028, the team will play at least the next three years at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento. It is a Triple-A ballpark the A’s will share with the Sacramento River Cats, Triple-A affiliate of the San Francisco Giants. It is not ideal, but it is what Fisher came up with.
The precedent has been set. A major-league team will play at least three seasons in a Triple-A ballpark while it waits for its new stadium to be built. The Rays are playing in GMS Field because of an Act of God. A hurricane badly damaged the Trop. The A’s are playing in a Triple-A ballpark willfully as a stopgap between Oakland and Las Vegas. The Rays could explore a similar arrangement in the future, and who knows where that will land the team?
Is contraction possible?
Technically yes, in reality no. MLB pushed to contract the Minnesota Twins and Montreal Expos for economic reasons in 2001, but those plans fell apart when a court injunction compelled the Twins to honor their lease with the Metrodome. The Twins eventually opened a new stadium, Target Field, in 2010. The Expos moved to Washington and became the Nationals in 2004. They played home games at RFK Stadium from 2004-07 before Nationals Park opened in 2008.
MLB revenues are at an all-time high and the MLB Players Association would consider contraction an act of war. It would mean the elimination of 26 MLB jobs, 40 40-man roster spots, and 165 minor-league contract spots. And remember, you can’t just contract one team, right? The every single day nature of the sport requires an even number of teams, so contracting the Rays would mean contracting another team as well, and twice as many player jobs lost. It’s not going to happen.
In the short-term, the most likely outcome is Sternberg sells the Rays and the new owner floats relocation. Perhaps earnestly, perhaps only to create leverage to get a new ballpark in St. Petersburg, Tampa, or the surrounding area. How the Rays go from here to a new ballpark is once again a great unknown, and how long it will take or where it will be located is anyone’s guess.
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