What the Dodgers, Blue Jays need to do to win the World Series as games shift to Los Angeles

The World Series is now a best-of-five. Thanks to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s masterful performance in Game 2, the Los Angeles Dodgers pulled even with the Toronto Blue Jays in this year’s Fall Classic. It’s a 1-1 series that now heads to Dodger Stadium for Games 3-5. If it goes to Game 6 or 7, the World Series and the 2025 season will conclude at Rogers Centre.

“I think that the baseball fan, they probably appreciate that. You have to appreciate a complete game,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said after Game 2 about Yamamoto’s outing. “So you never know. You never know when someone’s going to have it. Every game is different. So you never really discount anything. Who knows what’s going to happen on Game 3? It’s baseball and you got to kind of react in real time.”

Even with the Game 2 loss at home, history is on Toronto’s side. Teams that split the first two games at home have still gone on to win a best-of-seven series more than half the time.

This is the fifth time in the last six years the World Series has been tied 1-1 after two games. Last year, when the Dodgers had a 2-0 lead en route to a five-game series win over the New York Yankees, is the only exception. Within the next week either the Dodgers will become the first team to repeat as World Series champs since the 1998-2000 Yankees or the Blue Jays will win their first World Series since their back-to-back titles in 1992 and 1993. One way or the other, a long drought will end.

Here now are three X-factors for the rest of the series as the Blue Jays and Dodgers travel Sunday ahead of Game 3 on Monday.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Capitalize on the pitching mismatches

On paper, Games 3 and 4 are advantage Dodgers. It’ll be Tyler Glasnow vs. Max Scherzer in Game 3 and Shohei Ohtani vs. Shane Bieber in Game 4. Scherzer, despite pitching well in his ALCS start, stumbled badly to the finish line during the regular season, pitching to a 9.00 ERA in his final six starts. The patient Dodgers are unlikely to chase his curveball, a pitch Scherzer surprisingly used more than just about any start in his career in the ALCS, the way the Seattle Mariners did last week.

Bieber sandwiched a strong ALCS Game 3 start between two short, hard-contact-filled starts in the ALDS and ALCS Game 7. He looks like what he is: a pitcher with 10 starts under his belt post-Tommy John surgery. The command isn’t always there, the sharp breaking stuff isn’t always there, etc. Bieber has made it work more often than not in those 10 starts because he’s very talented and very smart, but this postseason has shown his performance can be volatile. He’s not the consistent Cy Young version of himself yet.

For sure, Scherzer and Bieber are capable of spinning gems in Games 3 and 4. The pitching matchups do appear to favor the Dodgers these next two games though, and that’s their path to winning the World Series. Ride this powerhouse rotation as long as possible because the bullpen is shaky (especially the middle relief) and the offense has not yet fully clicked this October. There is more to life than pitching matchups, but you’d rather have them in your favor than not, and the Dodgers have them.

Get the bottom of the lineup going

Despite the Hall of Fame talent atop the lineup, generating offense has not been especially easy for the Dodgers this postseason. They’re hitting .216/.307/.359 as a team since the start of the NLDS and they’ve averaged only 3.7 runs in those 10 games. The offense is doing just enough right now. The starting pitching has been so good and it’s had to be. It’s remarkable, really, that the Dodgers are three wins away from a second straight championship even though they’re not firing on all cylinders.

The bottom of the order — usually Enrique Hernández, Tommy Edman, and Andy Pages — has largely been a non-factor. In the 10 games since the start of the NLDS, L.A.’s 7-8-9 hitters have hit .214/.308/.291, and that .308 on-base percentage is boosted by four hit-by-pitches. Pages has struggled so much (4 for 43 with 11 strikeouts) that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hinted at a possible lineup change. Edman is nursing an ankle injury that limits his running, meaning Alex Call would likely replace Pages in center.

Toronto’s 7-8-9 hitters lead all postseason teams in batting average and slugging percentage since the start of the Division Series round. Their offense is so dangerous and one reason is the bottom of the order is not a pushover, and is instead doing good work setting the table for the top of the lineup. The Dodgers have not had that dynamic. They need more from Edman, Pages, et al to set the table for Ohtani & Co. Simply put, the Dodgers need more offense, and the 7-8-9 hitters are a place to get it.

Take advantage of home field

The Dodgers have taken home field advantage away from the Blue Jays with their Game 2 win. That doesn’t mean a whole lot — the Blue Jays lost Games 1 and 2 at home to the Mariners in the ALCS, remember — but it’s not nothing either. These two teams were among baseball’s best at home during the regular season while only being so-so on the road. The numbers:

Every team performs better at home for a multitude of reasons. Their rosters are built for their ballpark, they have better training and preparation facilities behind the scenes, they get to sleep in their own beds, etc. The home/road split is extreme for these two teams though. The Blue Jays and Dodgers were juggernauts at home this year and .500-ish teams on the road.

The Mariners were unable to take advantage of playing Games 3-5 at home in the ALCS. They took a 2-0 series lead to Seattle and dropped Games 3 and 4 to even the series 2-2. The Dodgers won’t want to turn home field advantage back over to the Blue Jays and see this series go back to Toronto. They were a great team at Dodger Stadium this season. Now they have to play like it. 

Toronto Blue Jays

How much can Bichette give?

All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette is on Toronto’s World Series roster and he’s playing a new position: second base. Going into Game 1, Bichette had not played since suffering a knee injury on Sept. 6. It is clearly still affecting him — he’s moving gingerly and grimaced a few times in Games 1 and 2 — but he’s grinding through it, and he volunteered to move to second base (a position he’d never played in MLB) because that’s where his defensive limitations would hurt the least. Still, Bichette managed to do this in Game 1:

Bichette started Game 1, went 1 for 2 with a walk, then was removed for a pinch-runner after drawing a walk to lead off what turned into a nine-run sixth inning. It was a 2-2 game at the time though, and the Blue Jays needed a faster, healthier runner on the bases. Bichette did not start Game 2. He instead pinch-hit with two outs and the bases empty and the Blue Jays down 3-1 in the seventh.

“I think tomorrow being off kind of plays into today’s thinking a little bit,” Schneider said Saturday afternoon about Bichette being out of the Game 2 lineup. “But I think at this point, again, no one’s feeling 100%, so if it’s a game that he’s starting — starting Game 3 — and he plays nine innings, I think we’re going to be OK with that.”

My guess is Bichette will start Game 3, sit Game 4 (and perhaps pinch-hit), and then start Game 5. An every-other-day schedule, basically, which isn’t uncommon for a player coming back from a fairly significant injury. Is there a way to get more from Bichette though? Does it make sense to DH him all three days and keep him out of the field? Even at full health, Bichette’s in the lineup for his bat. He’s never been much of a gloveman. The Blue Jays won’t miss his defense.

The downside of DHing Bichette is moving George Springer to the outfield, where he hasn’t played since Sept. 24, and putting either Addison Barger or (more likely) Nathan Lukes on the bench. There’s a lot to consider here, including Bichette’s health. If he can’t play back-to-back games yet, then he can’t play back-to-back games. He is one of Toronto’s most impactful hitters though. If there’s a way to get Bichette in the lineup all three games at Dodger Stadium, even at DH, it’s worth exploring.

Avoiding bullpen fatigue

It’s the World Series, and you do what you have to do to win today’s game, but Toronto’s relief crew has absorbed a heavy workload this postseason. Louie Varland has appeared in 11 of their 13 games and warmed up in at least one of the other two. He gave up a run in Game 7 of the ALCS. He faced five batters and got two outs in Game 2 of the World Series after warming up in Game 1 the night before. Is that just two tough outings back-to-back, or is Varland starting to feel the workload a bit?

Lefty Mason Fluharty and righty Seranthony Domínguez have each appeared in eight games this postseason. Three Blue Jays relievers are in the top five in appearances this postseason, which makes sense because they’re in the World Series and have played more games than most teams, but the Dodgers haven’t put as much strain on their relievers. Blake Treinen and Roki Sasaki lead the Dodgers with seven appearances each and, remember, they played in the Wild Card Series. The Blue Jays did not.

Games 3-5 will played on three consecutive days and this is when the bullpen really gets tested. Guys will be asked to pitch back-to-back days, maybe even back-to-back-to-back days, and many of them have never pitched this deep into the calendar or with this many innings under their belt. It’s a war of attrition now and, because the Dodgers have gotten so much more length from their starters, their bullpen is more rested than Toronto’s, at least in theory. Fatigue will be a factor in Games 3-5. It always is.

Limit the freebies

Here, we’re talking about free bases and free outs. During Schneider’s three full years as manager, the Blue Jays have ranked among the league leaders in intentional walks and sacrifice bunts. Schneider is not afraid to put a runner on intentionally nor is he afraid to give away an out to advance a runner. Sound strategies at times, and strategies the Blue Jays have continued to employ this postseason. They’ve issued an MLB-high six intentional walks, and they’ve bunted three times (with several more attempts).

On one hand, this is what got the Blue Jays to the World Series and you should stick with what got you there. On the other hand, you don’t want to give the Dodgers too many free baserunners with intentional walks, and you definitely don’t want to give their rotation free outs. They get enough of those on their own. There will be times to put up four fingers or square around. Just don’t go overboard with it. The Dodgers are better than any team the Blue Jays have played this postseason. Make them earn everything.