What is Walter Clayton Jr.’s NBA Draft outlook? Rising, red-hot and maybe even lottery-level

SAN ANTONIO — Walter Clayton Jr. did it again.

The senior All-America guard went for 34 points on 11-for-18 shooting from the floor and 5-8 from three to lead Florida to the national championship game with a 79-73 comeback win over Auburn.

While the spotlight of the Final Four drew more national attention for this particular performance, the 6-foot-3 Clayton has been doing it all tournament long.

Last weekend, when Florida found itself down nine with less than three minutes to play against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight, it was Clayton’s heroics that led them to the improbable comeback. With now back-to-back 30-point games, Clayton becomes the first player since Larry Bird in 1979 to accomplish that in the Elite Eight and Final Four.

In our most recent mock draft, which was published prior to the Sweet 16, Clayton was projected to go 25th overall (to the Magic). While that was viewed as notably higher than anyone else had him at the time, he’s potentially eclipsed that mark even in the last two weeks.

The case for Clayton is straightforward.

He’s an elite shooter of the basketball

While his “clutch gene” has been critical to Florida’s run, more relevant for NBA purposes is that his ability to shoot off the catch with deep range gives him extreme gravity, while his ability to shoot off the dribble prevents defenders from ever going under ball-screens and thus enhances his playmaking ability. 

He (finally) profiles as a lead guard

Beyond his shooting, Clayton’s transition to more of a lead guard this year has been extremely notable. For the last three years, two at Iona and last year at Florida, Clayton was used primary off the ball. This year, Todd Golden has put the ball in his hands and he’s responded with over four assists against just over two turnovers per game. 

There’s certainly still room for growth with some of his reads, but he’s made clear strides and now projects as a legit on-ball threat, which is vastly different from what he had showed prior to this year. In the modern NBA, having on-off ball versatility is often times even more valuable than being a pure point guard. Clayton has it, he’s a dynamic shooter, spurt scorer, and solid positional defender.

Put it all together, and Clayton’s range looks like it could be anywhere from 12-25 at this point.

But what do NBA scouts think? I spoke to three of them Saturday night following Florida’s win:

Scout 1: “In general, you don’t want to overreact to strongly to the NCAA Tournament, but at the same time, it would be crazy to not watch what he’s done the last couple of weeks and not view him in a different light.”

Scout 2: “He’s had the best six weeks of any player in the country and has taken himself from a late second round pick to a no brainer first round pick.”

Scout 3: “He’s multiplied his draft stock significantly. What he’s showing with hos dynamic of a shot creator that he is and not just a shooter and play finisher, it’s going to put him in a spot that we have to talk about him as a lottery level talent.”

Bottom line

Clayton’s incredible streak not only has Florida one game away from a national championship, but it has undeniably caught the attention of NBA scouts and decision-makers. What looked like a contrarian opinion just two weeks ago — that he would be a first-round pick — now looks far more likely than not. The contrarian opinion now is that he might just have a chance to play his way into the lottery.