What is next for North Carolina after Caleb Wilson’s season-ending injury?

North Carolina star Caleb Wilson, one of college basketball’s best quotes, brightest personalities and top freshmen, will not get his One Shining Moment. The potential top-five pick broke his right thumb Friday and will miss the rest of the season, the school announced. It’s a devastating, gut-wrenching blow for No. 17 North Carolina, who was gearing up for Wilson’s return from a left-hand injury that had sidelined him for the past month. 

So, what’s next for the Tar Heels? The bright side on a dreary day is that Carolina is more prepared for this injury now because Wilson has missed the last six games. UNC has won four straight (and went 5-1 without Wilson) ahead of Saturday’s rivalry showdown with No. 1 Duke, but it was expecting a jolt with Wilson back in the fold. Instead, UNC has to get up off the mat again and face the reality that its best player and emotional leader isn’t coming back.

Five major factors emerge for UNC:

1. What’s the best lineup?

UNC’s go-to lineup without Wilson includes Seth Trimble, Derek Dixon and Luka Bogavac in the backcourt with Jarin Stevenson sliding down to the 4 and big man Henri Veesaar at center. 

The results have been promising. UNC has a +22 net rating with that quintet in the last four games. UNC beat Clemson, Virginia Tech, Louisville and Syracuse during that span, so that net rating isn’t getting boosted by blowing out a low-major like NC A&T.

The offense has the personnel to remain potent. Dixon, Trimble and Bogavac can all toggle between scorer and creator, and UNC gets real floor-spacing from both Stevenson and Veesaar. That extra space has made playing clean a bit easier. UNC has turned it over just seven times with that lineup in the last four games. North Carolina will miss Wilson’s offensive rebounding dearly, so that makes taking care of the ball even more essential. Turnovers are death in the possession tug-of-war.

2. Spotlight on an up-and-down backcourt

Wilson contributed every single night for UNC. Of course, certain nights were better than others, but Wilson will finish his standout freshman season with 24-straight games of double-figure production. He did not score fewer than 12 points once. He had 11 double-doubles, too.

That type of consistency is rare and was a big part of what made Wilson so special and so crucial for this Carolina roster.

It’s an offensive dependency that has evaded both Bogavac and Trimble this season.

That can’t happen anymore moving forward. UNC desperately needs Bogavac to be a consistent double-digit scorer. The veteran Montenegro native has flashed in moments, like when he deposited six treys and 20 points against Clemson on Tuesday, but there have also been some no-shows along the way in his first season playing high-level college hoops.

Trimble has been more matchup-dependent than he’d probably prefer this year. The senior guard eviscerated Louisville in a pace-and-space game, but he finished with just nine points on 2-for-10 shooting against Clemson’s pack-the-paint defensive structure. Trimble and Bogavac have to shoulder the shot-creation and shot-making load down the stretch. UNC doesn’t have the margin for error to afford a clunker from each of them in do-or-die clashes.

3. Guard your yard

You can cover up lots of stuff by playing like your hair is on fire. UNC can be a tough out if it pins its ears back and plays like a wounded dog down the stretch. Finding some nastiness just has to be part of the formula if the Tar Heels want to squeeze every ounce of this season without Wilson.

Trimble has to take it personally that guards have killed this UNC defense at times this year. 

Veesaar has to take it personally anytime someone challenges him at the rim. 

With Wilson out, backup big man Zayden High has to continue being a workhorse on the glass in his expanded minutes. High has reeled in 14 offensive rebounds in the last six games combined and scored in double figures in three of those contests.

Everyone has to chip in on the boards now that Wilson isn’t around to vacuum In everything. 

Can UNC find its snarl?

4. Will the seeding committee dock UNC without Wilson?

North Carolina is a No. 6 seed, according to CBS Sports bracketology, but the Tar Heels are still firmly in the race for a No. 5 seed. The NCAA Tournament selection committee is now presented with a situation where it will have to evaluate a UNC team that will arrive on Selection Sunday without its leading scorer and rebounder. Thus, this team will continue to be under close watch down the stretch. To this point, UNC has done an admirable job of playing without Wilson — save for an NC State loss when it was also without Henri Veesar — but the job is not done. 

The absence of Wilson could still be enough of a problem for the committee to consider a minor hit on UNC. — CBS Sports’ David Cobb

5. Realistic expectations

As odd as it may sound, North Carolina hasn’t looked like a drastically different team without Wilson.

• North Carolina’s advanced metrics vs. Top-100 teams with Wilson on the court (861 possessions): +4.2 net rating, 115.6 offensive rating, 111.4 defensive rating
• North Carolina’s advanced metrics vs. Top-100 teams with Wilson on the bench (489 possessions): +4.6 net rating, 115.4 offensive rating, 110.8 defensive rating

Assuming the Tar Heels stick on the No. 6 line, UNC will be favored to win its first game in March Madness, and there are also some advantageous matchups on the potential 3-seed line.

Purdue and Iowa State have both looked wobbly.  Nebraska and this diminished form of UNC are not that far apart in terms of pure talent. Texas Tech or Gonzaga could also earn a No. 3 seed. Texas Tech is without All-American JT Toppin for the rest of the year, and the Zags’ star forward Braden Huff is still quite a ways from returning to action. North Carolina can have plenty of beef with the injury Gods, but so can Texas Tech and Gonzaga.

Even without Wilson, UNC has pathways to making the second weekend, but the margin for error is slim.