Last week was a good one for the lookahead column as we got way ahead on multiple line moves, taking the Saints as 3.5-point underdogs against the Panthers and the Bills as 2.5-point favorites against the Texans. Both moves were somewhat dependent on injury news, with Michael Penix Jr now out and C.J. Stroud not returning as anticipated. Still, the results of last Sunday’s action would’ve had both lines moving in our direction regardless. We also picked up some value taking Colts +4.5 before the Chiefs’ loss to the Broncos.
We also talked last week about 1.5 being a number primed to move based on Sunday action, and all three 1.5s did just that. The Bears moved up to -3 early in the week and is now settling at -2.5. The Raiders moved to -3 as well and then past that key number as news emerged that Shedeur Sanders would start for the Browns. The Jaguars-Cardinals game saw the favorite flip altogether, with the Jaguars going from +1.5 to -3 in most spots as of Thursday.
There’s only one 1.5 to watch out for this week, with the Falcons laying 1.5 on the road against the Jets. Both teams have elevated their QB2 to starter, with Atlanta replacing the injured Penix with Kirk Cousins and New York replacing the ineffective Justin Fields with Tyrod Taylor. The performance of those new starters against the Saints and Ravens, respectively, will go a long way toward determining which way the lookahead line moves in the Week 13 matchup.
What can we predict this week? Let’s take a look at the consensus Week 13 lookahead lines and then share our best bets to lock in early.
Week 13 lookahead lines
Packers at Lions (-3), 48.5
Chiefs (-4.5) at Cowboys, 51.5
Bengals at Ravens (-7.5), 51.5
Bears at Eagles (-7), 44.5
Falcons (-1.5) at Jets, 39.5
Cardinals at Buccaneers (-6.5), 49.5
Texans at Colts (-4.5), 46.5
Saints at Dolphins (-4.5), 42.5
Rams (-9.5) at Panthers, 45.5
49ers (-6.5) at Browns, 42.5
Jaguars (-7) at Titans, 41.5
Vikings at Seahawks (-7.5), 43.5
Bills (-4.5) at Steelers, 47
Raiders at Chargers (-8.5), 42.5
Broncos (-6.5) at Commanders, 43.5
Giants at Patriots (-7.5), 46.5
Week 13 lookahead picks
Chiefs at Cowboys
We faded the Chiefs last week and picked up a point of value, and I expect we’ll see something similar here. The Cowboys are +3.5 this week against the Eagles, a team that does not look as effective on offense as expected. That sums up the Chiefs in their last few games. If they don’t light up the scoreboard against the Colts, I could see this dropping to 3.5. If the Colts are able to win the game, we might get it even lower.
Bears at Eagles
Speaking of the Eagles, a disappointing offensive effort against Dallas without Lane Johnson will have people wonder why they should be laying so many points against a Bears team that is expected to be 8-3 after this week as they’re favorites against the Steelers. The reason the lookahead line is so high is that the Bears haven’t really won convincingly while building their first-place record despite a soft schedule, but if the Eagles seem like they’ll have trouble scoring more than 20 most weeks, it shouldn’t matter.
Texans at Colts
Rounding things out in our look at this weeks Colts-Chiefs game, we could see considerable movement on this spread depending on whether Indy rises to the challenge. If the Colts go in and beat the Chiefs, proving the market has been underselling them as a team near the bottom of the top 10 rather than the top, this line could get to 6 pretty quickly,, even with C.J. Stroud potentially returning. If the Chiefs’ defense shuts down what’s been the best offense in the league in yards per play, it’ll be easy to see the Texans doing the same and keeping this around a 3-point game. I’m more on the site of the market underrating the Colts, and I think we’ll end up wishing we could get -3.5 in this matchup by this time next week if we don’t do it now.
Other notes: The 49ers are laying 6.5 in Cleveland and won’t have played by the time the lines reopen. That number has the potential to move if Shedeur Sanders plays well in a relatively soft matchup this week. If the Browns go out and beat the Raiders with an offense that looks better than what’s been on the field the entire season, it’ll be easy to see Sanders keeping the starting job and having success against the current iteration of the San Francisco defense. But if Sanders flops, this could reopen at 7 as we wait to hear about Dillon Gabriel’s status … The Raiders looked awful against the Cowboys but are laying 4 points this week against the Browns, and if they turn things around and look like a competitive team in that game, it’ll easy to see their line against the Chargers the following week dropping from 8.5. Remember that the Chargers tend to have a home-field disadvantage when playing the former L.A. team, and the state of their offensive line taking on Maxx Crosby certainly isn’t going to help their case for covering a big spread.
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