Two longtime rivals collide in a Big Ten showdown with College Football Playoff implications when the No. 7 Oregon Ducks host the No. 15 USC Trojans at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore.
The Ducks (9-1, 6-1 in the Big Ten) and Trojans (8-2, 6-1) are in a three-way tie with Michigan (8-2, 6-1) for third place in the conference, and the winner of Saturday’s game theoretically would be in position to make the Big Ten Championship Game if either No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana would drop one of its remaining regular season games.
But the Oregon-USC showdown is more about positioning in the CFP rankings. Already outside of the 12-team bracket, the Trojans would be dealt a devastating blow to their national title hopes with a loss. Meanwhile, the Ducks would also be in danger of falling outside of bracket with a defeat on Saturday.
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USC will need to solve its issues on the road to stay alive in the CFP hunt. Since coach Lincoln Riley arrived in Los Angeles in 2022, the Trojans are 1-6 when playing a ranked team on the road. That includes defeats at No. 23 Illinois and No. 13 Notre Dame this season. Over its last 20 games facing ranked opponents on the road, USC is 2-18. In addition, the Trojans haven’t won in Autzen Stadium since 2011.
Top sportsbooks have made Oregon a 10-point favorite over USC. The line has risen from -8.
So what should you make of all that line movement? Is it a market correction or an overreaction? Here’s a look at the Oregon-USC point spread, as well as the line movement on four other Week 13 games. All times Eastern.
No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma (noon)
Open: Oklahoma -10
Current: Oklahoma -6.5
This line was on the drop even before Tigers quarterback Beau Pribula (ankle) was upgraded from doubtful to questionable to Thursday night. And now, Thursday’s news has dropped the number to below the key number of -7 (though Missouri backers can still find some -7s out there). However, if Pribula is not 100% mobile, the Sooners’ defense, which ranks second in the country in sacks per game (3.70), will be salivating to hunt him in the pocket. Though Oklahoma faces the possibility of a letdown one week after upsetting Alabama, the value is now on the Sooners.
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Ball State at Toledo (2 p.m.)
Open: Toledo -23
Current: Toledo -28
This game features the biggest line movement of the week, with sportsbooks now making the Rockets four-touchdown favorites. The movement makes sense. Toledo is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 40.0 points per game. Conversely, Ball State is 0-5 on the road this year, losing by 26.4 points a game. The Rockets boast the No. 1 offense and defense in the MAC, while the Cardinals are 12th (out of 13) in offense and 10th in defense. Toledo bettors won’t get the best number, but it may not matter.
Marshall at Appalachian State (2:30 p.m.)
Open: Marshall -2
Current: Marshall -5
This point spread shift is a reaction to Appalachian State’s recent slide. The Mountaineers have lost four in a row and are coming off a 58-10 blowout loss against James Madison. Though they are at home, they have dropped their last two home contests to Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern. Meanwhile, the Thundering Herd (5-5, 3-3 in Sun Belt) still have incentive on Saturday; one more win makes Marshall bowl-eligible.
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No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon (3:30 p.m.)
Open: Oregon -8
Current: Oregon -10
Duck supporters better hop on quickly. This point spread has jumped from its opening and may get to -10.5, though there are still some heavily juiced -9.5s out there. Oregon is a bad matchup for the Trojans; the Ducks lead the nation in both pass defense (127.3 yards per game) and pass efficiency defense (94.27). They have the ability to make the Trojans play lefthanded on Saturday. In addition, USC could very well be without its best offensive lineman, left tackle Elijah Paige. Oregon bettors have missed the best number at this point, but the Ducks still seem to be the right side.
New Mexico at Air Force (7 p.m.)
Open: Air Force -1
Current: New Mexico -3.5
This line completely flipped with the news that Falcons quarterback Liam Szarka is out for the season with a broken arm. To replace Szarka, Air Force will turn to Kemper Hodges, a 6-foot, 245-pound converted fullback who has taken just 39 snaps this year. The Falcons managed just nine points after Hodges replaced Szarka in last week’s loss to UConn. Meanwhile, the Lobos (7-3) are in the midst of one of the best turnaround seasons in college football this year.
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