After spending last week Down Under, UFC returns to its home base of Las Vegas with UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira on Saturday. The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET from the Meta Apex and will stream on Paramount+. The main event will feature a bantamweight bout between two ranked contenders as No. 9 Mario Bautista (16-3) will face No. 11 Vinicius Oliveira (23-3). Bautista is the -142 favorite in the latest UFC odds from DraftKings Sportsbook despite losing his last time in the Octagon, while Oliveira is the +120 underdog to utilize in UFC Fight Night bets.
The co-main event for UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira is a flyweight contest between Amir Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi. Riding an undefeated streak of nearly four years, Horiguchi is the -355 favorite as he looks to improve upon his No. 8 ranking, and the bout’s over/under for total rounds is 2.5 (-260/+195). Before locking in any UFC picks, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from Mike McClure’s proven computer model.
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McClure’s UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.
The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI on UFC betting. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324.
Now, the model has analyzed Bautista vs. Oliveira from every angle and revealed its top betting picks and best bets. Head to SportsLine to see them.
Bautista vs. Oliveira preview
Bautista, 32, should have the locals in his corner come Saturday as he’s a Nevada native but is fighting out of Scottsdale, Ariz. His background is in BJJ, and he began his professional MMA career in 2017. He made his UFC debut two years later, and after splitting his first four bouts with the promotion, he then ripped off a lengthy winning streak. Bautista won eight straight fights, which included a victory over UFC Hall of Famer, Jose Aldo, in 2024.
The eighth victory then came in his next fight before the streak ended with a decision defeat to Umar Nurmagomedov in October 2025. That was the first decision loss of Bautista’s 19-match career, as he also has a lone defeat via knockout and one via submission. Most of his victories have come via submission or the scorecards as he hasn’t won by knocking out his opponent in any of his last 10 bouts, despite posting an 8-2 record. Check out SportsLine to see the model’s picks and analysis.
The 30-year-old Oliveira hails from Brazil and won each of his first 10 pro MMA fights in the first round, eight coming with a knockout. He’d then suffer losses in two of his next three bouts but has rebounded since and been nearly unbeatable. In his dozen fights since then, which span nearly seven years, Oliveira sports an 11-1 record. He won via first-round KO in Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023 to earn a UFC contract, and he’s won his four bouts with the promotion.
Over the span of those four, Oliveira has been awarded Fight of the Night twice and Performance of the Night once. With a 70.5-inch reach, the Brazilian is a knockout specialist as 16 of his 23 wins have come via the KO, compared to five from a decision and two via submission. Oliveira has never submitted in his MMA career, nor loss via the judges, as all three of his defeats have come via knockout. You can only see the model’s UFC picks and analysis at SportsLine.
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira predictions
One of the model’s top UFC Fight Night picks: It is backing Julius Walker at +140 (8.3% edge) against Dustin Jacoby (-166).
“Jacoby’s experience is reflected in the betting line, but Walker’s metrics suggest this fight is much closer than the odds imply. Walker lands with higher accuracy, absorbs less damage, and carries legitimate knockout upside. The SportsLine model projects Jacoby to win just 53.2% of the time, making the underdog price on Walker particularly attractive given his finishing potential,” McClure told SportsLine. See who else to back here.
You can make this pick at FanDuel, where new users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $200 in bonus bets instantly at FanDuel if your $5 bet wins.
How to make UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira picks
The model has picks for Bautista vs. Oliveira and other bouts on the UFC card. It is also backing several underdogs on the main card. You can see who it is only at SportsLine.
Who wins Bautista vs. Oliveira, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model which showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25, and find out.
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira main fight card, odds
See picks at SportsLine.
(Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)
Mario Bautista (-142) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+120)
Amir Albazi (+280) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (-355)
Jailton Almeida (-162) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+136)
Michael Oleksiejczuk (-500) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+380)
Jean Matsumoto (+240) vs. Farid Basharat (-298)
Dustin Jacoby (-166) vs. Julius Walker (+140)
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