UFC 324 fight card predictions: Expert picks for Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett

The first UFC event of the landmark media rights deal with Paramount takes place on Saturday when the Octagon lands in Las Vegas for UFC 324. The card is loaded with former champions, record holders and rising stars, making for a potentially explosive Paramount+ debut.

In the night’s main event, Paddy Pimblett will meet Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight championship. Gaethje is a former interim champ and also held the symbolic BMF title, while this is Pimblett’s first chance as UFC gold.

The co-main event features former bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley looking to bounce back from back-to-back championship fight losses to Merab Dvalishvili. O’Malley will face another dangerous striker in the form of Song Yadong.

There are plenty more big fights and familiar names on the card, which takes place from T-Mobile Arena and streams live on Paramount+.

Subscribe now to Paramount+ to get access to UFC 324 for as little as $8.99 per month

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities that you can consider before hitting the sportsbooks.

UFC 324 fight card, odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (as of Jan. 23)

• Paddy Pimblett -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +190, interim lightweight title
• Sean O’Malley -205 vs. Song Yadong +170, bantamweights
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta -340 vs. Derrick Lewis +270, heavyweights
• Natalia Silva -380 vs. Rose Namajunas +300, women’s flyweights
• Jean Silva -258 vs. Arnold Allen +210, featherweights
• Umar Nurmagomedov -1450 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +850, bantamweights
• Ateba Gautier -900 vs. Andrey Pulyaev +600, middleweights
• Modestas Bukauskas -142 vs. Nikita Krylov +120, light heavyweights
• Charles Johnson -175 vs. Alex Perez +145, flyweights
• Alexander Hernandez -120 vs. Michael Johnson +100, lightweights
• Josh Hokit -225 vs. Denzel Freeman +185, heavyweights
• Ty Miller -455 vs. Adam Fugitt +350, welterweights

UFC 324 predictions, picks

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card from Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Wise.

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett predictions

Campbell: Now that Pimblett has evolved into a more focused and precise version of himself at age 31 (along with getting himself into world-class physical shape), his speed and length advantages figure to be an issue for the battle-tested Gaethje. It should go without saying that Pimblett will need to show a sturdy chin early and live up to his slogan that “Scousers don’t get knocked out.” But for as dangerous as Gaethje is, Pimblett holds a distinct advantage on the ground with his submission game opposite a strong amateur wrestling background for Gaethje that surprisingly never gets utilized in his UFC bouts. Pimblett will take his time and eventually expose the aging chin of his 37-year-old opponent in a breakthrough win. Pimblett via TKO4

Brookhouse: Gaethje hasn’t been very active in recent years and is now 37. Add in that he’s taken a more patient and tactical approach to fighting in the later stages of his career and I think you have the recipe for Pimblett to win this fight. Pimblett has the length to punish Gaethje on the outside and can tangle Gaethje up and use trips to take the fight to the ground. If the fight hits the floor, that’s far more Pimblett’s world, whether he is attacking with submissions or dominating position to deliver strikes. This feels like a great fight for Pimblett to get the biggest win of his career. Pimblett via SUB2

Mahjouri: I promised to stop picking against Pimblett after he thrashed Michael Chandler. He doesn’t make it easy. Statistically, it’s hard to see Pimblett’s path to victory.  Pimblett is a dual-finishing threat, but falls short in key categories. Gaethje is the more powerful and experienced striker with surprisingly higher striking defense. Pimblett has the biggest advantage on the ground, but historically lacks the offensive wrestling required to take the fight there. What these overall statistics don’t conclude are their recent trajectories. Pimblett, 31, makes meaningful improvements from fight to fight. Chandler and King Green are indeed over the hill, but Pimblett beat them with such ease that you can’t dismiss his growth. Gaethje, 37, is nearing the end by his own admission. Pimblett will properly prepare for this dangerous task. He’ll know to keep his chin down — a recurring bad habit of his — against a juggernaut like Gaethje. Pimblett via SUB4

Mormile: Gaethje via TKO

Wise: Gaethje via UD

Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong predictions

Campbell: O’Malley badly needs a win following back-to-back title losses to former champion Merab Dvalishvili. But the fact that Petr Yan, who defeated Dvashvili in their December rematch to once again become bantamweight king, holds a 2022 loss to O’Malley by split decision means that a rematch could be next if “Suga” can keep pace atop the division rankings. For as strong and solid as Yadong has become at age 28 following eight years as a UFC fighter, his style is still too basic for O’Malley not to expose over 15 minutes with his dynamic striking attack. While Yadong is durable enough to prevent O’Malley from delivering a highlight-reel statement and should prove able to keep the fight competitive, expect a return to form from the former champion. O’Malley via UD

Brookhouse: We’ve seen O’Malley struggle against men who bring heavy pressure and can make him uncomfortable with grappling. Yadong isn’t that fighter, though. Yadong is a good striker, but he is going to struggle to stay in his striking range, while O’Malley can work from the outside and utilize his length. Yadong doesn’t really have the game to force O’Malley out of his comfort zone or rhythm and that should let O’Malley cruise to a decision win. O’Malley via UD

Mahjouri: O’Malley still has life in him as an elite bantamweight. He admits taking consecutive fights against Dvalishvili was a mistake, and took ample time off to address nagging injuries. He’s a precise, powerful striker with a solid grappling game. Song is one of the more well-rounded fighters in the division, but his experience with elite bantamweights suggests his ceiling is below the title level. Song’s win over Henry Cejudo was too competitive, considering the future Hall of Famer retired one fight later. His losses to Cory Sandhagen and Yan further drive home the point. Song can certainly play spoiler, but I fear we forget how thoroughly O’Malley dissected Marlon Vera in their rematch. O’Malley via UD

Mormile: O’Malley via UD

Wise: Yadong via TKO2

Cortes-Acosta vs. Lewis predictions

Campbell: With four wins in five appearances alone over the past 10 months, Cortes-Acosta has rapidly become a legitimate threat to the heavyweight title picture. But the grind of constantly being in training camp can become a grind that sneaks up on fighters over time. And Lewis, who claims he is entering this fight in arguably the best shape of his career, is the wrong fighter to potentially make a mistake against or have an off night. Even at 40, the UFC’s record holder for career knockouts is still as dangerous as ever. Lewis has won three of his last four fights, all by stoppage, and still owns the ability to weather damage before delivering the dramatic finish. The fact that Lewis feels so healthy after years of nagging injuries and fluctuating weight should be taken seriously here. Lewis via KO2

Brookhouse: Lewis has an unbelievable ability to find ways to land fight-ending bombs against almost anyone, so he can never be counted out in any fight. That said, Cortes-Acosta is the more well-rounded fighter and has shown the ability to shift from striking to a measured, slower-paced approach to neutralizing dangerous big men. Cortes-Acosta may be willing to risk some exchanges early, but he’ll likely shift to takedowns to try and keep Lewis grounded and away from throwing his looping power shots. It may not be pretty, but this is a fight Cortes-Acosta can grind away with repeated takedowns. Cortes-Acosta via decision

Mahjouri: The jury is out on Cortes-Acosta. Is he a legitimate elite heavyweight or the type of hype train that Lewis feeds on? I believe it’s the former. Cortes-Acosta has won seven of his last eight fights and took a round off interim title challenger Serghei Pavlovich in his lone loss during that stretch. It’s Cortes-Acosta’s striking defense that inspires confidence. Don’t let his recent string of knockouts fool you; he knows how to stay safe and win fights over 15 minutes. Cortes-Acosta should employ a responsible style, mixing distance and footwork with carefully timed takedown attempts. If he can avoid Lewis’ blitzes, an admittedly hard ask against the UFC KO record holder, he should win the fight on the scorecards or with a late knockout. Cortes-Acosta via KO3

Mormile: Lewis via TKO2

Wise: Lewis via TKO2

Silva vs. Namajunas method of victory picks

Campbell: Silva via UD

Brookhouse: Silva via UD

Mahjouri: Silva via UD

Mormile: Namajunas via UD

Wise: Namajunas via UD

Allen vs. Silva method of victory picks

Campbell: Allen via SD

Brookhouse: Silva via TKO2

Mahjouri: Silva via UD

Mormile: Silva via UD

Wise: Silva via TKO3