Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props, predictions: Back Blue Jays starter against White Sox

A pitching icon meets a pitching phenom when Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers take on Jacob Misiorowski and the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The 37-year-old Kershaw (4-0, 3.43 ERA) hasn’t lost a decision this season. In his last start he became just the 20th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3,000 career strikeouts. Meanwhile, the 23-year-old Misiorowski (3-1, 3.20) has been terrific so far in his rookie season, winning his first three starts before dropping his last start to the Mets.

Sportsbooks have set Kershaw’s total strikeout player prop at 3.5, while Misiorowski’s is 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Kershaw Over 3.5 as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Misiorowski Under 5.5 as a 3-star play.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Tuesday’s 15-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 5 stars and one rated at 4.5. Here they are:

Brandon Young Over 3.5 strikeouts (-116) vs. Mets (6:35 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts

The Orioles rookie righty has struggled in his four starts this season, going 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. But he is averaging almost a strikeout an inning (15 strikeouts in 16 innings) and has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in two of his past three starts. On Tuesday he faces a Mets club that is hitting just .236 over the last month; just six teams have a worse batting average over that time.

Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts (-137) vs. White Sox (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts

The SportsLine Projection Model continues to back the Blue Jays righty. Bassitt (8-4, 4.32) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 13 of 18 starts this season. That includes a nine-strikeout performance in his last start, against the Yankees. Three starts ago he faced the White Sox and struck out seven while allowing only one run on three hits in 6.0 innings. Chicago ranks last in the league in batting average (.222) and third-to-last in the majors in runs scored (315).

Taijuan Walker Over 2.5 strikeouts (-152) vs. Giants (9:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.0 strikeouts

This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Tuesday. The veteran righty (3-5, 3.64) has shuffled between reliever and starter this season but rejoins the Phillies rotation to face San Francisco. In the eight games he has started this season, Walker has gone Over 2.5 strikeouts five times. He also has averaged 3.8 strikeouts in his eight starts. San Francisco ranks 24th in the majors in both batting average (.232) and OPS (.684).