Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Nationals starter against Mariners

National League East rivals will collide twice Thursday when the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves play a doubleheader at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The teams were scheduled to play Game 2 of their three-game series Wednesday, but the game was postponed to Thursday because of rain.

In the first game, the Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez (4-1, 3.17 ERA) will face the Braves’ AJ Smith-Shawver (3-2, 3.67). In the second game, Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler (6-1, 2.42) will square off against Atlanta’s Chris Sale (2-3, 3.36).

Sportsbooks have set Wheeler’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5 (Over -128, Under +100), while Sale’s also is 6.5 (Over -166, Under +124). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Wheeler Over 6.5 and Sale Over 6.5 as 3.5-star plays on its 5-star scale.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Thursday’s five-game schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout prop the model has rated at 5 stars and two others rated at 4 stars, all at plus-money.

AJ Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 strikeouts (+104) vs. Phillies (1:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts

This is a reachable number for Smith-Shawver in the first game of a doubleheader between Atlanta and Philadelphia. The 22-year-old Braves righty (3-2, 3.67) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in six of his eight starts this season. He is averaging almost a strikeout per inning (41 in 41 and two-thirds innings) and will face a Phillies lineup that struck out 11 times in their last game, a 2-0 victory over Atlanta Tuesday.

Jacob Lopez Over 3.5 strikeouts (+115) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts

This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop Thursday. Last week, the 27-year-old lefty (0-2, 2.57) was called up from the minors and pitched well, limiting a dangerous Phillies lineup to one run on three hits while striking out eight and walking one in seven innings. That was his third straight appearance going Over 3.5 strikeouts despite coming out of the bullpen for one of those games. Throughout his minor league career Lopez displayed swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 463 batters in 364 and two-thirds innings.

MacKenzie Gore Under 7.5 strikeouts (+102) vs. Mariners (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 6.9 strikeouts

The Washington lefty (2-5, 3.47) leads MLB in strikeouts (93) but the total has gotten out of hand, according to the model. After sitting at 6.5 strikeouts over his last five starts, the total has gone up to 7.5 so the model is taking the Under. Gore is not as good on the road (4.26 ERA) as he has been at home (2.64 ERA), and Seattle has hit lefties well this season with a .724 OPS, good for 10th in all of baseball.