The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres resume their heated four-game series on Wednesday when the National League West rivals collide at Dodger Stadium. On Tuesday three players were hit, and L.A. manager Dave Roberts was ejected in the Dodgers’ 8-6 win. L.A. (45-29), which leads the NL West, has won the first two games of the series.
On Wednesday the Dodgers’ Emmet Sheehan is set to make his first start in the majors since September 2023, before having to undergo Tommy John surgery. Stephen Kolek (3-2, 3.50 ERA) is scheduled to take the mound for San Diego.
Sportsbooks have set Kolek’s total strikeout player prop at 3.5, and the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Kolek Over 3.5 (+105) as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale. (No pitcher strikeout prop has been set yet for Sheehan.)
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Wednesday’s 15-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus-money, and another rated at 4 stars. Here they are:
Tarik Skubal Under 8.5 strikeouts (-111) vs. Pirates (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 7.1 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. While the reigning AL Cy Young winner has been fantastic this season (7-2, 1.99), this is a big number even for him. Skubal has gone Under 8.5 strikeouts in nine of his 14 starts this season, including each of his last three. In his last outing Skubal excelled at soft contact over strikeouts, inducing a season-high 13 ground ball outs against just six strikeouts.
Ryan Yarbrough Under 4.5 strikeouts (-126) vs. Angels (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 3.5 strikeouts
The Yankees lefty (3-1, 3.96) has been solid since being forced into the starting rotation in early May, but he has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in each of his last two starts. On Wednesday he faces an Angels club that doesn’t strike out much against southpaws; its 124 strikeouts against lefties this season are the second fewest in the majors.
Paul Blackburn Over 3.5 strikeouts (+125) vs. Braves (7:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
The Mets righty (0-0, 6.75) has struggled since returning from the IL earlier this month. But on Wednesday he returns to his normal role as a starter. In his only other start this season, Blackburn had his best outing of the year, striking out three in 5 scoreless innings against the hard-hitting Dodgers despite not being completely stretched out. In two career starts against Atlanta, he has a 0.90 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 10 innings.
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