Two teams looking to go deep in the playoffs collide on Friday when the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Tigers (64-46) are tied with the Blue Jays for the best record in the American League and lead the AL Central by nine games. Meanwhile the Phillies (61-47) sit in second place in the National League East, a half game behind the Mets.
Friday’s pitching matchup pits Detroit’s Jack Flaherty (6-10, 4.51 ERA) against Philadelphia lefty Ranger Suarez (8-4, 2.59). Flaherty is coming off one of his best starts of the season: six shutout innings against Toronto. Meanwhile Suárez enters Friday after giving up only one run in 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees.
The top sportsbooks have set Flaherty’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5 and Suárez’s at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Flaherty Over 6.5 and Suárez Over 5.5 as 3.5-star plays on its 5-star scale.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday’s 15-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Michael Wacha Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
This is a reasonable total for the 34-year-old vet. Wacha (4-9, 3.53) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 21 starts this season, including three of his last four games. He also has gone Over his pitcher strikeouts market in seven of his last 10 games, with an average of 4.6 pitcher strikeouts per game. In addition he has pitched well lately, having allowed just three total earned runs over his last three starts, which cover 16⅓ innings.
Shane Smith Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
After being on the injured list with a sprained left ankle since July 19, the lone White Sox All-Star returns to face the Angels. Smith (3-7, 4.26) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 12 of his 18 starts this season, including two of his last three. On Friday the 25-year-old rookie has a favorable matchup against a Los Angeles lineup that averages 9.67 strikeouts per game this season, the most in all of baseball.
Anthony DeSclafani Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Athletics (10:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. DeSclafani takes the rotation spot that opened when the Diamondbacks dealt Merrill Kelly to the Rangers. Since joining Arizona as a free agent in June, DeSclafani has mostly worked out of the bullpen as a long reliever. In his lone start, on July 6 against the Royals, the veteran righty struck out six in 4 innings. He is averaging more than a strikeout an inning (24 in 23 1/3 innings). On Friday he faces an Athletics ballclub that strikes out 8.61 times per game, the ninth-highest total in the majors.
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