Pirates ace Paul Skenes will try to bounce back from his third loss of the season when he takes the mound on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. In his last start, Skenes (3-3, 2.74) allowed three runs on five hits in an 8-3 loss to the Cubs. He already has lost three times this season, the same number of losses as all of last year when he went 11-3 in 23 starts. On Tuesday, he will square off against Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore (2-3, 3.44).
Sportsbooks have set Skenes’ total strikeout player prop at 6.5 (Over +124, Under -155), while Liberatore’s is 4.5 (Over -143, Under +125). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Skenes Over 6.5 as a 3.5-star play on its five-star scale and Liberatore Over 4.5 as a 2.5-star play.
However, the model has found value elsewhere on Tuesday’s 16-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including two that would pay plus-money. Here they are:
Andrew Abbott Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125) vs. Braves (7:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
Mixing in his changeup more this season, Abbott (2-0, 2.84) has shown improved swing-and-miss stuff. His strikeout percentage of 29.1% is a career high and a significant improvement over last season (19.5%). He went Over 4.5 strikeouts in each of his first two starts this season but has gone Under the last two starts after failing to go past 4.0 innings. Still, the plus-money price is right, according to the SportsLine Projection Model.
Sean Burke Over 3.5 strikeouts (+100) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
Though Kansas City does not strike out much as a team, this is a reachable number for Burke (2-4, 4.91), who has struck out five in each of his last three starts. He is coming off his best performance of the season: zero runs and two hits allowed across 6.0 innings in an 8-0 victory over the Brewers.
Hayden Wesneski Over 4.5 strikeouts (-102) vs. Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.3 strikeouts
In his first season with the Astros after coming to Houston in the Kyle Tucker trade, Wesneski (1-2, 3.86) has been solid, going at least 5.0 innings in all five of his starts. He enters Tuesday’s start off extra rest, having not started since April 25. He has gone Over this number three times this season. Last season, in four appearances against Milwaukee (including one start), Wesneski struck out 11 across 8.0 innings.
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