The Milwaukee Brewers seek their second double-digit winning streak of the season when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday in the opener of a three-game series. Milwaukee (73-44) has a six-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central and rallied from a five-run deficit to defeat the New York Mets 7-6 in walk-off fashion on Sunday for its ninth consecutive victory. The Brewers won 11 in a row after dropping a 4-2 decision to the Miami Marlins on July 5 and have gone 24-4 since that setback.
Jose Quintana (9-4, 3.57 ERA) will attempt to keep Milwaukee rolling when he takes the mound in the series opener. The 36-year-old Colombian left-hander, who made 20 starts for Pittsburgh in 2022, set a season high with seven strikeouts en route to victory against the Atlanta Braves last time out. Quintana is 5-2 with 71 strikeouts over 78 innings against the Pirates.
Pittsburgh, which settled for a split of its four-game series against the Cincinnati Reds after winning the first two contests, counters with Andrew Heaney (5-9, 4.77). The 34-year-old southpaw has won just one of his last five starts and fell to 1-3 lifetime against the Brewers after getting battered for seven runs over four innings on June 24 in Milwaukee.
The top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for Quintana (Over -109, Under -119) at 4.5 and Heaney (Over +107, Under -140) at 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Heaney’s Over 3.5 strikeouts prop as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Quintana’s Under 4.5 as a 3-star play.
In addition to Heaney, the model has found more good value on Monday’s 11-game schedule, as there are two pitcher strikeout player props that it has rated at 4 stars that both return plus money. Here they are:
Andrew Heaney Over 3.5 strikeouts (+107) vs. Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.3 strikeouts
Despite Heaney’s lack of overall success, he hasn’t had a lot of difficulty racking up strikeouts against the Brewers. In five career starts versus Milwaukee, Heaney has registered 30 strikeouts across 23 1/3 innings. Even in the rough outing earlier this season, he fanned three batters over four frames. Only two NL teams have fewer than the Brewers’ 919 strikeouts this year, but they have been retired on strikes at least six times in each of their last five contests. Heaney has gone Over his projected strikeout total in three of his last five turns against teams with a winning record, averaging 4.8 in those contests.
Elvis Peguero Over 1.5 strikeouts (+175) vs. Tigers (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 1.5 strikeouts
Peguero, who was claimed off waivers from Milwaukee earlier this month, will make both his White Sox debut and first major-league start. The 28-year-old Dominican right-hander has registered 118 strikeouts over 139 2/3 innings in 133 major-league relief appearances, including two in one frame in his most recent outing on May 12 against the Cleveland Guardians. The Tigers have struck out 1,046 times this season, fifth-most in the majors, and Peguero fanned two over three innings in his lone meeting with Detroit in 2023.
Logan Webb Over 5.5 strikeouts (+127) vs. Padres (9:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts
Webb is fifth in the majors this year with 165 strikeouts and has reached double figures in each of his last two starts, recording 11 over 5 2/3 innings and 10 across six frames – both against Pittsburgh. This is encouraging as the 28-year-old righty fanned a total of five batters over 10 innings in his previous two turns. Webb had two outings against San Diego earlier this season and went Over this number both times, registering six strikeouts in five innings on Apr. 12 and seven in eight frames on June 2. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 1-for-7 against Webb in those contests, striking out three times.
Add Comment