Max Fried attempts to become the second 12-game winner in the major leagues as the New York Yankees look to climb within two games of the American League East-leading Toronto Blue Jays when they visit Rogers Centre on Wednesday for the rubber game of their three-game series. Fried (11-3, 2.43 ERA) is tied for the AL lead in victories and one behind Freddy Peralta of the Milwaukee Brewers for most in the majors.
The 31-year-old left-hander improved to 3-0 lifetime against the Blue Jays when he allowed one unearned run over six innings on Apr. 27. Fried struggled at Toronto on July 1, however, but escaped with a no-decision after yielding four runs across six frames. He has surrendered 11 runs while notching only nine strikeouts over 14 innings in three outings this month.
Toronto counters with Chris Bassitt (10-4, 3.89), who is 4-1 in seven career starts against the Yankees. The 36-year-old right-hander has gone 1-1 versus New York this season, giving up seven runs over 11 1/3 innings while registering 14 strikeouts. Bassitt is coming off his third consecutive win, a triumph over the San Francisco Giants in which he fanned five batters across 6 1/3 scoreless frames.
The top sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for Bassitt (Over -108, Under -120) at 5.5 and Fried (Over -104, Under -125) at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Fried’s Over 4.5 strikeout prop as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Bassitt’s Over 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.
In addition to Fried, the model has found more good value on Wednesday’s 15-game schedule, as there are two pitcher strikeout player props that it has rated at 4.5 stars and return plus money. Here they are:
Brandon Walter Over 4.5 strikeouts (+119) vs. Diamondbacks (3:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts
After making nine relief appearances for the Boston Red Sox as a rookie in 2023, Walter did not pitch last season due to a rotator cuff injury but has been solid as a starter for the Astros this year. The 28-year-old southpaw has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his eight turns, including each of the last two, and registered at least five strikeouts in all but one of his outings. Walter has fanned seven batters over six innings in each of his last two starts, so it would not be surprising to see him go Over his set total against the Diamondbacks.
Zach Eflin Over 3.5 strikeouts (+108) vs. Guardians (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
Eflin returns from a back injury to make his first start since June 28, when he yielded four runs in just one inning against the Tampa Bay Rays. The 31-year-old righty did not record a strikeout in that outing but racked up four or more in four of his previous five turns. Eflin struck out three batters in each of his first two career starts against the Guardians but has fanned 13 across 14 frames in his last three outings on the road this season.
Max Fried Over 4.5 strikeouts (-104) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
Fried has registered only five strikeouts across 12 innings in his two starts this season against the Blue Jays, who have whiffed a major league-low 671 times. However, he has struck out at least five batters in four of his last six outings and ranks 14th in the AL with 113 this year. The key to this bet is how long Fried lasts, as he has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of the 14 starts in which he has worked at least six innings this campaign.
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