The Milwaukee Brewers will look to complete a three-game sweep of the rival Chicago Cubs when the teams collide on Wednesday at American Family Field. The Brewers (64-43) have won the first two games of the series, 8-4 and 9-3. They now hold a two-game lead over the Cubs (62-45) in the National League Central. Wednesday’s pitching matchup features Milwaukee All-Star Freddy Peralta (12-4, 2.81 ERA) against Chicago’s Shota Imanaga (7-4, 3.12).
The top sportsbooks have set Peralta’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5 and Imanaga’s at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Perlata Under 6.5 as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Imanaga Over 4.5 as a 4.5-star play.
However, the model has found better MLB betting value elsewhere on Wednesday’s 15-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Dean Kremer Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (12:35 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. The 29-year-old Baltimore righty has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 21 appearances this season, including 12 of his last 14 outings. He is averaging 4.7 strikeout per appearance this season. He also has been much better at home (2.65 ERA) than on the road (5.37). When Kremer last faced the Blue Jays he struck out six in 5⅓ innings.
Joey Wentz Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Royals (2:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
This well traveled 27-year-old lefty has been making the transition to starter since being claimed off waivers by the Atlanta Braves on July 11. In his three appearances with the Braves this season he has soared Over 3.5 strikeouts twice and has averaged 4.7 strikeouts. On Wednesday he is set to take on a Kansas City ballclub that has struggled offensively this season, averaging just 3.6 runs per game, the third lowest in the majors.
Will Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Rays (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
This is a reasonable total for the 26-year-old Yankees righty. Warren (6-5, 4.82) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 22 starts this season. That includes an eight-strikeout performance the last time he faced Tampa Bay, on May 4. He is coming off a seven-strikeout effort against the Phillies, one of the most potent lineups in baseball. On Wednesday he will take on a Rays lineup that struck out 10 times against Yankees pitching on Tuesday.
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