The co-leaders in the National League East begin a key three-game series when the New York Mets take on the rival Philadelphia Phillies on Friday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Mets and Phillies (both 45-30) have distanced themselves from the rest of the division; no other team is closer than 10 games behind. However New York enters the series having lost six straight games. Zack Wheeler (7-2, 2.76 ERA) will take the mound for Philadelphia. Meanwhile rookie Blade Tidwell (0-1, 14.73) will make his second career start for the Mets and first since May 4. Should you consider either when placing MLB strikeout props?
Sportsbooks have set Wheeler’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5. (No prop has been set yet for Tidwell.) The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Wheeler Over 6.5 (-130) as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday’s 15-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus-money. Here they are:
Janson Junk Over 3.5 strikeouts (+100) vs. Braves (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
After working as a bulk reliever for his first five appearances this season, the Marlins righty (1-0, 2.78) gets to make his first start of the year. Despite working out of the bullpen, Junk has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in four of his five appearances. His 22.5% strikeout rate this season is a significant improvement over the last two years (16.7 and 15.2). On Friday, he faces an Atlanta club that doesn’t hit as well on the road (.233) as it does at home (.257).
Brady Singer Over 3.5 strikeouts (-132) vs. Cardinals (7:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
This is the best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. The Reds righty (7-4, 4.34) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in eight of 14 starts this season, including two of his last three. The last time he faced St. Louis, he had one of his best starts of the year, striking out four while allowing only one earned run and two hits across 6 innings.
MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130) vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.6 strikeouts
This is a strangely low total for the Washington lefty (3-6, 2.89). Gore has gone Over 5.5 strikeouts in 13 of 15 starts this season and averages 7.9 strikeouts per start. He ranks in the 95th percentile in the majors in strikeout percentage (33.7) and 92nd in whiff percentage (32.8). When he last faced Los Angeles on April 7, he struck out seven while allowing just two runs on five hits in six innings.
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