The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs play the second game of their pivotal three-game series when the rivals battle on Tuesday at American Family Field in Milwaukee. In the series opener on Monday the Brewers hit three home runs en route to beating the Cubs, 8-4. With the victory Milwaukee (63-43) took over sole possession of first place in the National League Central, one game ahead of Chicago (62-44).
Tuesday’s pitching matchup pits the Brewers’ Quinn Priester (9-2, 3.28 ERA) against the Cubs’ Colin Rea (8-4, 4.06). Priester has won each of his last three starts and eight straight decisions. Meanwhile Rea has won four of his last five starts.
The top sportsbooks have set Priester’s total strikeout player prop at 4.5 and Rea’s at 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Priester Over 4.5 and Rea Over 3.5 as 3.5-star plays on its 5-star scale.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Tuesday’s 16-game schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 5 stars and two rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Tanner Gordon Over 2.5 strikeouts vs. Guardians (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.1 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Tuesday. The Rockies righty (2-2, 3.13) has earned a second straight start after pitching six scoreless innings while striking out three against the Cardinals on Wednesday. Gordon has gone Over 2.5 strikeouts in three of his four major league starts this season. On Tuesday he has a favorable matchup against a Cleveland ballclub that ranks 24th in the majors in wRC+ (92) since the beginning of July.
Jason Alexander Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Nationals (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
The Astros righty (1-1, 8.14) makes his second start for Houston since he was claimed off waivers from the Athletics earlier this season. In his two previous starts for the Astros, Alexander went Over 3.5 strikeouts once. On Tuesday he is set to face a Washington ballclub that struck out 19 times against Houston pitching.
Sean Manaea Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
The veteran Mets lefty (1-1, 2.19) makes his fourth start of the year since his delayed start to the season. So far this year Manaea has displayed swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 18 batters in 12⅓ innings and going Over 4.5 in each of his three starts. The last time he faced San Diego, in June of last year, he allowed only one run on four hits while striking out seven in five innings.
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