San Francisco Giants ace Robbie Ray can become the first nine-game winner in the National League when he takes the mound on Tuesday against the Cleveland Guardians at Oracle Park in San Francisco. Ray (8-1, 2.55) is coming off a no-decision against the Rockies in which he lasted only 4 innings. On Tuesday he will square off against the Guardians’ Slade Cecconi (1-3, 4.26).
Sportsbooks have set Ray’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5 while Cecconi’s is 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Ray Under 6.5 (-115) as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Cecconi Over 4.5 (+115) as a 4-star play.
However, the model has better found value elsewhere on Tuesday’s 15-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus-money. Here they are:
Brandon Pfaadt Over 3.5 strikeouts (-167) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Tuesday. This has been a strange year for Pfaadt, who is 8-4 despite having a 5.50 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. That said, this is a reasonable number for the Arizona righthander, who has gone Over this total in nine of 14 starts this season. That includes his last start in which he fanned four in 5 innings in a 10-3 win over the Mariners. On Tuesday he will face a Toronto club that has never seen him before.
Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts (-125) vs. Diamondbacks (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts
This is a fair total for the Toronto righty (7-3, 3.70), who has gone Over this total in 10 of 14 starts this season. He also has been much better at home (2.48 ERA) than on the road (4.91) this season. In seven home starts he has 45 strikeouts, averaging 6.4 per start. Also, in five career starts against Arizona, Bassitt is 4-0 with a 3.07 ERA.
JP Sears Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105) vs. Astros (10:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.3 strikeouts
The A’s righty (4-4, 5.08) is coming off one of the best strikeout performances of his career, fanning nine in 5 1/3 innings against the Angels. On Tuesday Sears will face a Houston lineup that has struggled recently. Over their last three games, the Astros have scored a total of six runs and have struck out 27 times.
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