Carlos Rodon attempts to become the third 10-game winner in Major League Baseball this season when the New York Yankees visit the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday for the opener of the four-game series between the American League East rivals. Rodon (9-5, 2.92 ERA), who set a career high with 16 victories last year, is looking to join teammate Max Fried and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers as the only pitchers to record 10 wins thus far in 2025.
The first-place Yankees won two of three at home in April against the Blue Jays, who are three games back in the division. Three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer (0-0, 5.63) will make his third start of the season for Toronto and second since returning from a thumb injury that sidelined him for nearly three months. Rodon is 2-2 lifetime versus the Blue Jays, while Scherzer owns a 4-5 career record against New York.
Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for both Rodon (Over -114, Under -117) and Scherzer (Over -115, Under -110) at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Rodon Over 5.5 as a 4.5-star play on its five-star scale and Scherzer Under 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.
In addition to Rodon, the model has more good value on Monday’s eight-game schedule, as there are two pitcher strikeout player props that it has rated at 4.5 stars and return plus money. Here they are:
Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 strikeouts (-114) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.5 strikeouts
Rodon is sixth in the majors and third in the AL this season with 119 strikeouts. The 32-year-old left-hander has gone Over this total in 11 of his 17 overall starts in 2025 and six of eight on the road. He recorded eight strikeouts in each of his last two turns against the Blue Jays and has fanned 46 batters over 37 2/3 innings in seven career outings versus Toronto, striking out both Myles Straw and Davis Schneider five times in seven at-bats.
Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 strikeouts (+116) vs. Reds (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.7 strikeouts
Crochet ranks second in the majors with 135 strikeouts, three fewer than Skubal. The 26-year-old southpaw has fanned eight or more batters in five of his last six starts and 10 of 17 overall this season. However, the model says Crochet consistently fails to meet his total strikeouts expectation when favored and pitching against teams with a winning record, coming in below his market in four of his last five matchups with an average of 6.8 per game.
Jacob Lopez Over 5.5 strikeouts (+116) vs. Rays (7:35 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.2 strikeouts
Lopez has gone Over this number in three consecutive outings and five of his last seven, including one in relief. The 27-year-old lefty, who is facing his former team for the first time, has averaged 6.6 strikeouts over those seven contests and registered a career-high nine on three occasions. The Rays struck out 10 times in their 5-1 loss at Baltimore on Sunday and will have their work cut out for them to cut down that number against Lopez.
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