Former Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Dustin May makes his first start since being acquired by the Boston Red Sox at the trade deadline when he takes the mound against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday at Fenway Park in Boston. Once the No. 2 prospect in the Dodgers organization, May has gone 18-16 over parts of six seasons with Los Angeles. This season he is 6-7 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
On Wednesday, he makes his debut for a Red Sox club that has won seven straight games, the longest active winning streak in the majors. Michael Wacha (5-9, 3.38) is scheduled to get the ball for the Royals.
Top sportsbooks have set both May’s and Wacha’s total pitcher strikeout prop at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates May Over 4.5 as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Wacha Under 4.5 as a 2.5-star play.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Wednesday’s schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout prop that the model has rated at 5 stars and two at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus money.
Kyle Freeland Over 2.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (3:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 3.8 strikeouts
Even though Freeland (2-11, 5.26) has struggled in the win column this season, this is a reachable number for the Rockies lefty. He has gone Over 2.5 strikeouts in 14 of his 20 starts this season, including three of his last four. He also has gone Over his pitcher strikeouts market in three of his last five games when up against teams with a winning record, averaging 3.8 strikeouts per game.
Spencer Arrighetti Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Marlins (4:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts
This is the model’s only 5-star pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. The Astros righty makes his first start since going on the IL with a broken right thumb in early April. Last year, Arrighetti was key down the stretch in his rookie season with Houston, going 3-4 with a 2.72 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 53 innings over the last two months of the season. In three rehab starts this year, he struck out 11 across 11 innings.
Nestor Cortes Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.3 strikeouts
The veteran lefty makes his first start for the Padres, who acquired Nestor (1-1, 9.00 ERA) from the Brewers at the trade deadline. He also returns to the mound since going on the IL in early April, after just two starts, with elbow inflammation. Over his career he has averaged a little more than a strikeout per inning (583 in 576 innings). In four rehab starts this year, Cortes was excellent, striking out 18 in 18 innings and posting a 1.00 ERA and 0.72 WHIP.
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