The two teams with the best records in baseball collide on Friday when the Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game series at Comerica Park in Detroit. The Tigers (41-23) own the best record in baseball. They are coming off a 3-2 loss to the White Sox in 10 innings on Thursday. Meanwhile the Cubs (39-23) have the best record in the National League. They have won four of their last five.
Reigning American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (5-2, 2.26 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit. He will be opposed by Chicago’s Ben Brown (3-3, 5.72).
Sportsbooks have set Skubal’s total strikeout player prop at 7.5 (Over +108, Under -125), while Brown’s is 5.5 (Over -143, Under +110). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Skubal Under 7.5 as a 3-star play on its five-star scale and Brown Over 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday’s 15-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus-money, and one rated at 4 stars. Here they are:
Colton Gordon Over 4.5 strikeouts (+116) vs. Guardians (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
The Astros rookie lefty (0-1, 5.95) has been forced into the rotation because of injuries to other starters. And even though he hasn’t allowed fewer than three runs in each of his four starts this season, he has displayed swing-and-miss stuff. He is averaging a little more than a strikeout an inning (20 in 19.2 innings) and has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in two of his last three starts. On Friday he will face a Cleveland club that has struggled against lefties this season, with an OPS of just .598, which is the third-worst in the majors.
Chad Patrick Over 3.5 strikeouts (-152) vs. Padres (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. The Brewers rookie righty (3-4, 2.97) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in nine of 12 starts this season. Over his last three starts, he has struck out seven, six and six batters and has allowed a total of three earned runs over 15.1 combined innings. He also has been better at home this season, with a 2.37 ERA versus a 3.86 ERA on the road.
Hayden Birdsong Over 4.5 strikeouts (-128) vs. Braves (10:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
Formerly a reliever, the Giants righty (3-1, 2.37) has moved into the starting rotation and has excelled. Since starting his first game on May 20, Birdsong has allowed a total of four earned runs over 14.2 innings. Most importantly he has 15 strikeouts over that time. He has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in each of his last two starts. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 81st percentile in whiff percentage (30.1).
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