Time’s up for Dave Aranda at Baylor? It’s getting harder to make excuses for Bears coach

Nearly every Baylor game in 2025 has followed the same script. The Bears fall behind early, struggle to get stops and give up big plays. The defense misses tackles, takes bad angles and looks unprepared — a particularly glaring issue given that head coach Dave Aranda also serves as defensive coordinator.

Then, in the second half, Baylor’s passing game catches fire. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson puts up heroic numbers and the Bears storm back. Sometimes they win. Sometimes they lose. Occasionally, they get embarrassed. Each week, fans leave more frustrated — and lately, many aren’t showing up at all.

Saturday’s 41-20 loss to No. 21 Cincinnati was another low point. Baylor trailed 24-0 before cutting the deficit to seven in the fourth quarter, only to give up two late touchdowns to quarterback Brendan Sorsby. The result dropped the Bears to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in Big 12 play.

Baylor has stuck with Aranda for six seasons. Despite three losing campaigns in his first four years, a Big 12 title and AP top-five finish in 2021 bought him time. A six-game winning streak to end 2024 appeared to signal momentum and made Baylor a trendy pick to contend for the Big 12 crown this fall. Expectations were high.

Instead, Baylor has become irrelevant — squandering any momentum it had entering the realigned Big 12. And despite one of the most active coaching carousels in college football history, the Bears may soon need to join the market.

The situation is complicated. Baylor is still likely to make a bowl game. The program hasn’t fired a coach for on-field reasons since 2007. Aranda also delivered a Big 12 championship and Sugar Bowl win in 2021 — arguably the greatest season in school history. Had Oklahoma State running back Dezmon Jackson reached the goal line in that 2021 title game, Aranda might have been gone two years ago.

In isolation, some results this season are defensible. Cincinnati is a legitimate Big 12 contender. Losing standout defensive end Jackie Marshall against Auburn changed that game, and Baylor nearly upset reigning Big 12 champion Arizona State.

But that’s the problem — Baylor under Aranda is always “close.” Always working on fixing mistakes. After six seasons and a 35-34 record, mediocrity has become the ceiling. With a third conference loss — and likely more coming — even that might slip away for a veteran-laden 2025 roster.

Aranda, like many coaches hired in 2020, faced unprecedented challenges. He navigated the pandemic and the rapid rise of NIL with little guidance, and he’s long been known as a stickler for rules. After the historic 2021 season, he signed a middling recruiting class and resisted embracing the transfer portal and NIL. That stubbornness helped lead to a 3-9 finish in 2023.

Following that season, Aranda presented a plan to modernize his approach. He deserved the chance to make it right, and his buyout likely helped his case. Over the offseason, he reshaped his roster and staff in ways that appeared promising. On paper, it worked. In practice, it hasn’t.

Ironically, Aranda’s downfall may come from his greatest strength: his defensive background. Baylor ranks No. 106 nationally in total defense, allowing 5.7 yards per play and more than 180 rushing yards per game — worse than all but Kansas and Colorado. The Bears sit in the bottom 25 in tackles for loss, and Marshall is the only defensive lineman with a sack.

The closing sequence against Cincinnati captured everything wrong with the program. After cutting the deficit to seven, Baylor forced a second-and-13 but immediately gave up a wide-open pass over the middle for a first down. The drive bled more than seven minutes off the clock and ended in a touchdown. On the ensuing kickoff, receiver Kole Wilson fumbled deep in Baylor territory, setting up another quick score. In 15 plays, a one-score game became a blowout. Every mistake was preventable — but Baylor simply didn’t prevent them.

This is Aranda’s defense, built in his image and called by him. By any measure, it’s among the worst in college football. Hiring a new play-caller would mark his fourth on defense — and seventh coordinator overall — in five years. There’s no one left to fire, and no changes left to make.

There is talent on this roster. Robertson and tight end Michael Trigg are among the nation’s statistical leaders, and receiver Josh Cameron ranks among the Big 12’s best. But none of them are expected to return in 2026.

This was supposed to be the culmination season for Baylor football, much like 2013 and 2019 before it. Instead, the Bears are 4-4, staring down another rebuild.

Aranda has repeatedly learned from his mistakes, adapted and made the right moves — just always too late.

Baylor can’t afford to make that same mistake again.