The 2025-26 NBA season gets underway on Tuesday with the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Houston Rockets. OKC will raise its championship banner on 2025 NBA Opening Night as the Thunder went a franchise-best 68-14 en route to the first title in team history last season. Meanwhile, Houston is coming off a 52-30 season and earned the No. 2 seed in the West before being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The team then added four-time scoring champ, Kevin Durant, in the offseason as he’ll debut versus his former team.
Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla. The Thunder won the season series, 3-2, last year. OKC is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Rockets vs. Thunder odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 227.5. Before locking in any Thunder vs. Rockets picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past seven seasons. The model enters the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 160-118 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It also went 24-11 (69%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Rockets vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Rockets:
| Rockets vs. Thunder spread | Oklahoma City -6.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook |
| Rockets vs. Thunder over/under | 227.5 points |
| Rockets vs. Thunder money line | Oklahoma City -282, Houston +228 |
| Rockets vs. Thunder picks | See picks at SportsLine |
| Rockets vs. Thunder streaming | Fubo (Try for free) |
Why the Rockets can cover
While OKC took three of five games last year outright, Houston went 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games, including covers in each of the last two. Then, Houston went out and made the biggest transaction of the offseason in trading for Durant, the NBA’s eighth all-time leading scorer who averaged 26.6 points a year ago on 52.7% shooting from the field and 43% from beyond the arc. Durant solves the one weakness from Houston last year in outside shooting, as his trade didn’t cost the Rockets to lose anyone that made up the core of their fourth-ranked defense.
Houston led the NBA in rebounds last year and allowed the second-fewest made 3-pointers. Amen Thompson made All-Defensive First Team, despite just starting half of the season, and he is poised for a bigger role this year. Also returning is Alperen Sengun, who is coming off his first All-Star appearance and averaged 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists in 2024-25. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Thunder can cover
Not only did Oklahoma City have the best NBA record last season, but it also had the best spread record at 53-25-4. The team went 35-6 outright at home in the regular season, defeating Houston by nine-plus points both times it hosted the Rockets. OKC’s point differential over the span of the regular plus postseason was the best in NBA history, and there was no attrition this offseason. Every Thunder player to play in the 2025 NBA Playoffs is under contract for this season.
That includes MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who won the scoring title and whose 32.7 ppg is the most in NBA history for a player on a championship-winning team. Even Houston’s staunch defense was no match for Gilgeous-Alexander as he dropped 51 on the Rockets last year, in addition to having a pair of 32-point, 8-rebound outings versus Houston. His offensive exploits, somewhat, overshadowed the fact that the Thunder led the NBA in defensive rating, steals, field goal percentage allowed and 3-point percentage allowed in 2024-25. See which team to back at SportsLine.
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How to make Rockets vs. Thunder picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Thunder vs. Rockets and is leaning Under the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 70% of simulations in an A-rated pick. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Rockets vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits in more than 70% of simulations in an A-rated pick? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Rockets spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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