Three reasons Bears have gone from worst-to-first, can they sustain level of play?

Entering 2025, the Bears had not given their fans much to cheer about lately. Memories of the 1985 Super Bowl run, “Da Bears” SNL skits, Devin Hester running wild and Brian Urlacher leading a No. 1 defense have been fading. They have always shared real estate with the eternal search for the NFL’s holy grail, a franchise quarterback. But it’s been getting more crowded lately with years of frustration with names like Marc Trestman, Matt Eberflus, Matt Nagy, John Fox, Jay Cutler, Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields. 

That’s why this season has been such a breath of fresh air. It’s a much-needed reprieve from hail marys, Thanksgiving debacles, double doinks and Aaron Rodgers “I own you” (although we could be getting flashbacks from the latter on Sunday). 

The Bears have been on something of a Cinderella run this season. They might be this year’s version of the 2024 Commanders. A new head coach, a young quarterback and a flurry of miracle comebacks have brought life back to a heartbroken fanbase. Entering Week 12, Chicago finds itself with a 7-3 record and at the top of a tough division after three straight last-place finishes and four straight 10+ loss seasons.

Here’s three reasons for the turnaround.

1. Historic run of miracle comebacks

The Bears have taken the baton from the 2024 Commanders as the cardiac kids, fitting after Jayden Daniels’ hail mary last year broke Chicago. The Bears have five wins when trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter this year, already the most in a season in their 106-year history and already tied for the most by any team in a season since 1970 with the 2011 Broncos (remember Tebow Time?!?!) and 2016 Lions. They still have seven games left to break that record.

One of those comebacks was on a Monday night in Washington when much maligned kicker Jake Moody corkscrewed in a game-winning field goal at the buzzer in the rain. The last three weeks have been enough drama for a lifetime. Enough to give someone a heart attack and all ending in elation.

• Week 9: They beat the Bengals 47-42 after becoming the first team in the last 45 years to relinquish a 14-point lead in the final two minutes. They won it on Caleb Williams’ 58-yard touchdown pass to rookie tight end Colston Loveland with 17 seconds left.
• Week 10: They beat the Giants 24-20 with consecutive touchdown drives in the final five minutes, capped off by Williams’ 17-yard scamper with 1:47 left. This marked the first time the Bears have had a game-winning touchdown in the final two minutes in two straight games.
• Week 11: They avoided another late meltdown vs. Minnesota and won 19-17 on Cairo Santos’ walk-off 48-yard field goal.

The Bears are finally winning the type of games they always used to lose. Instead of historic meltdowns they are pulling off miracle comebacks. They are 5-3 when trailing in the final two minutes this year after going 4-47 in the previous four years combined. 

The Bears are still searching for consistency from Caleb Williams, but he’s shown guts when it counts. He’s third in the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.42) in the final five minutes this year and 18th in the first 55 (-0.05). That’s a bigger gap (0.47) than the play of J.J. McCarthy and Matthew Stafford this year. He goes from a bust to an MVP favorite.

2. Ben Johnson leading offensive turnaround

You can’t make this stuff up! That’s the beauty of sports. Your fortunes can turn on the dime of a heartbreaking hail mary but turn again with a new year and new faces. In the Bears case, offensive guru Ben Johnson has revived an offense that has been dormant for decades with the help of upgraded personnel.

Chicago ranks top-five in total offense for the first time since 1977, when Walter Payton won MVP. They have the longest drought in NFL history without a top-five offense. It’s been a long 47 years, Bears fans! Plus, the Bears infamous drought without a 4,000-yard passer is hanging in the balance. Caleb Williams is on pace for 3,959 passing yards.

But the turnaround hasn’t been about Williams, it’s been about Ben Johnson injecting Lions DNA into the Bears. They are a run-first offense that’s made a drastic shift to an under center team with play action explosives much like Johnson’s tenure in Detroit. 

They are going under center and using play action at top five rates in the league after that wasn’t their identity in 2024. They are using two tight ends at one of the highest rates in the league and facing a lot of base defense, one reason why they lead the NFL in average target separation and percentage of wide open attempts per NFL Pro Insights. It’s shocking to say they lead the NFL in explosive plays on offense this year after ranking 29th late year. That’s a combined 82 runs of 10+ yards and completions of 20+ yards, the same total as last year in seven fewer games. 

Bears NFL ranks in last two seasons

The Bears are averaging 146.6 rushing yards per game this year, a tick higher than the Lions last year at 146.4. No team went under center and used play action more than Detroit in 2024. 

Who would have thought the Bears could be among the league’s best rushing teams with De’Andre Swift leading the way? Chicago leads the NFL in rushing yards during their 7-1 stretch dating back to Week 3. Swift ranks middle of the pack in yards over expected per rush this year after he ranked dead last among qualified rushers in 2024. 

The Bears have also followed the Lions blueprint to build an elite offensive line with playmaking tight ends. It’s no coincidence they’ve allowed the lowest pressure rate from interior offensive line positions this year. They overhauled the entire interior o-line this offseason by adding Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson. 

They’ve been the foundation for this historic turnaround. The line ranks top-six in pass block grade and run block grade according to Pro Football Focus. Caleb Williams has been sacked 16 times this year after the total was a whopping 68 last year. He’s been sacked 2.4 fewer times per game, the second-largest decrease by any signal caller since 1970 behind David Carr from 2002-03.

Rookie first-round pick Colston Loveland was on the receiving end of the biggest play of the season but he’s also adding to what Chicago is doing in the trenches. He’s fifth among tight ends in run block grade this season, a hair behind a notorious road grader at the position, George Kittle. 

Add up the new scheme, fresh faces and rejuvenated players and you have the most improved offense in the NFL by some measures. Chicago can be the first team since the 1971-72 Jets to go from dead last in total offense to top-five in that department.

3. Channeling Super Bowl defense in some ways

The ‘Monsters of the Midway’ aren’t walking through the doors anytime soon but this Bears team shares at least one thing in common with the 1985 squad. Chicago leads the NFL in takeaways (22) and turnover margin (+16), just like 1985, the year of their only Super Bowl win. 

The Bears have had a below average defense overall, but the takeaways have kept a unit afloat that’s been playing without three key starters, Jaylen Johnson, Kyler Gordon and T.J. Edwards.

Enjoy it while it lasts

There’s a reason Bears fans have been enjoying the ride while it lasts while remaining cautiously optimistic. The first is the schedule. The Bears have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season in terms of their opponent’s current record (.348 win percentage). They are tied with the Packers for the hardest schedule remaining (.592 opponent win percentage).

They haven’t beaten anyone good. They are 0-2 vs. teams currently .500 or better, losing by 14 on the road in Baltimore (without Lamar Jackson) and getting smashed by 31 in Detroit vs. Ben Johnson’s former team. Their wins against the Cowboys and Commanders look less impressive now that both teams have struggled, especially on defense. Essentially, the Bears have feasted on a cupcake schedule and they’ve even needed crazy comebacks to win those games.

The schedule, comebacks and reliance on turnovers all scream regression, especially in a tough division. The Bears will have to hold their slim division lead when they still have three games left vs. the Packers and Lions. 

Bears final seven games

It’s wild they’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL and still have a negative point differential this season. They are the first team since the 2022 Vikings to start 7-3 or better despite getting outscored. Those Vikings went one-and-done in the playoffs, losing a home game to the Giants and Daniel Jones. 

It feels like the Bears will be facing a similar fate, which sure as heck beats another 5-12 season. 

How Chicago can keep the good times rolling

But, recent history proves it doesn’t always have to end. Tebow Time gave us one more miracle comeback with the 80-yard overtime lightning bolt to Demaryius Thomas to upset the Steelers in the playoffs. The Cardiac Commanders were better than this Bears team but they still rode a similar formula to the NFC title game last year, beating Ben Johnson’s Lions on the way by. So what’s it going to take for Chicago to sustain their surprising start?

It starts with health on defense. You can’t count on the takeaways to continue, but they could get better overall play with starting cornerbacks Jaylen Johnson and Kyler Gordon nearing returns after playing three games combined this year. Johnson is one of the NFL’s best cornerback and this is a bottom 10 defense that has been shredded in the secondary this year. They have allowed the most completions (22) and highest completion percentage (56%) on deep throws this season (20+ air yards). That’s very concerning when they haven’t even faced a murderer’s row of quarterbacks lately. Quite the opposite. The last five they’ve faced are Spencer Rattler, Tyler Huntley, Joe Flacco, Jaxson Dart and J.J. McCarthy. They’ve completed a league-high 14 deep balls vs. Chicago in the last five weeks. Yuck.

The Bears also need better play from Caleb Williams. They are 25th in pass success rate this year and fourth in run success rate. The offensive turnaround has been way more about Johnson’s scheme and new personnel around Williams, than a leap from the year-two quarterback. He’s made some strides this year and has all the talent in the world but is still too erratic. He’s tied with the J.J. McCarthy for the highest off-target rate in the NFL and has held onto the ball longer than any signal caller despite the easy completions Johnson has dialed up for him. Poor accuracy and indecisiveness doesn’t usually lead to good things, which is why you don’t like seeing Williams alone in the top right of this chart with McCarthy.

I don’t expect these issues to get ironed out overnight, one more reason the Bears’ time in first place in the NFC North is probably going to be short lived.

How short? Time will tell. Bears fans would love to hold off on that for one more week rather than re-living another Aaron Rodgers nightmare, if he even suits up while dealing with a fracture in his left wrist. After that it gets tough quickly with road games at the Eagles and Packers. You never know, but it only seems like a matter of time before Cinderella turns into a pumpkin.