Fresh off its toughest test of the 2026 World Baseball Classic to date — a taut 5-3 win over Mexico on Monday — Team USA is on the brink of securing a berth in the quarterfinals. They can secure that berth with a win over Italy on Tuesday night back at Daikin Park in Houston. Here are the essentials for that big contest:
USA vs. Italy: Where to watch, odds
- Time: 9 p.m. ET | Date: Tuesday, March 10
- Location: Daikin Park, Houston
- TV channel: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
- Starting pitchers: Nolan Mclean (USA) vs. TBA
- Odds (via FanDuel): USA -5.5 (-110) | O/U: 11.5
Pool standings and clinch scenarios
The U.S. is 3-0 going into its final game of pool play, while Italy comes in at 2-0. Here are the current standings for Pool B going into the USA-Italy match-up:
|
United States |
3-0 |
|
Italy |
2-0 |
|
Mexico |
2-1 |
|
Great Britain |
1-3 |
|
Brazil |
0-4 |
A win by the U.S. on Tuesday night means they advance to the quarterfinals as the top seed in Pool B. The top two teams from each pool will advance to the knockout rounds. In Pool B, Great Britain and Brazil have concluded pool play and been eliminated, which means the U.S., Mexico, and Italy are contending for those two top spots. Mexico and Italy will play on Wednesday. As noted, a U.S. win means they’re in, and that Mexico-Italy tilt will determine who gets the second spot from Pool B in the quarters. However, if Italy on Tuesday pulls off the big upset, then things are muddled.
Speaking of that possibility, here are the WBC tiebreaker rules in order of operation:
- Head-to-head performance between tied teams
- Fewest runs allowed divided by outs recorded by tied teams
- Fewest earned runs allowed divided by outs recorded by tied teams
- Highest batting average in games between tied teams
- Drawing of lots
The U.S. holds that first tiebreaker over Mexico, but of course the other two head-to-heads at the top of Pool B are yet to be played. If Italy stuns Team USA on Tuesday and then falls to Mexico on Wednesday, then all three teams left standing will have completed pool play with identical 3-1 records. That would loop in those tiebreakers above.
McLean goes for the U.S.
After trotting out a seasoned ace in Logan Webb followed by the two reigning Cy Young winners in Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes in the first three games, the U.S. will lean on Mets rookie right-hander Nolan McLean against Italy. Age 24 and a former third-rounder out of Oklahoma State, McLean is widely regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in the game right now. He arrived in Queens last season in time to make eight starts down the stretch, and he thrived with a 2.06 ERA, an FIP of 2.97, and 57 strikeouts in 48 innings. Earlier in the offseason, CBS Sports ranked McLean as the No. 8 prospect in all of baseball. Here’s part of that write-up:
“McLean was the breakout star of the regular season’s final six weeks. He debuted in mid-August then notched a 2.06 ERA (196 ERA+) and a 3.56 strikeout-to-walk ratio in eight starts. It’s hard to do much better than that. It’s also hard to do much better from a modern arsenal perspective than what McLean has going on. He throws six pitches — a pair of mid-90s fastballs, two high-spin breaking balls with massive horizontal break, and a cutter that serves as a bridge offering — giving him plenty of options to break out against hitters of either hand. He works the angles too, with a delivery that sees him launch the ball from a low angle and release height. Piece it all together and it’s easy to understand why McLean looks like a star already on the rise.”
No, McLean doesn’t (yet) have the name value of the three U.S. starters who preceded him in this WBC, but he’s capable of dominating, especially against a shallow-on-paper Italy lineup.
On the bullpen front, manager Mark DeRosa in Monday’s win over Mexico, which followed an off day on Sunday, used four relievers — Garrett Cleavinger, Matthew Boyd, Griffin Jax, and finally Garrett Whitlock, who earned the high-leverage save. Of those, only Boyd isn’t permitted to pitch against Italy, as he logged 56 pitches and by WBC rule must receive four days of rest before seeing game action again. Fully rested are names like Mason Miller and David Bednar and, from the left side, Ryan Yarbrough and Gabe Speier.
Italy’s first real test
As you may have gleaned from all of the above, Italy’s two wins in pool play have come against Great Britain and Brazil, and to state the obvious those rosters are not close to what confronts them on Tuesday night. The fire-breathing U.S. pitching staff is one thing, and then there’s the juggernaut U.S. lineup that figures to include the likes of Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, and others. That’s the drastic step up in quality of competition for Italy, and it’s why they’re heavy underdogs going into this key contest.
Prediction
McLean and a deep U.S. bullpen limit the Italy attack, and the Team USA bats do big damage in the middle and late innings for an easy win and a ticket to the quarterfinals. Prediction: Team USA 10, Italy 2
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