Week 1 of the college football season concludes with Bill Belichick and the North Carolina Tar Heels hosting the TCU Horned Frogs on Monday night. Last season, TCU finished with a 9-4 record that was capped off with a 34-3 win over Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl. Mack Brown’s tenure with the Tar Heels ended with a 6-7 season in 2024. This led to UNC adding one of the most successful coaches in NFL history to the college ranks in Belichick.
Kickoff from Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Horned Frogs are 3.5-point favorites in the latest TCU vs. North Carolina odds from SportsLine consensus, and the over/under for total points scored is 55.5. Before making any North Carolina vs. TCU picks or same-game parlays, be sure to see the college football predictions from SportsLine’s proven model and check out the latest college football odds.
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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and was a profitable 27-16 combined on money-line and over/under college football picks in 2024. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Here are the model’s top SGP picks for TCU vs. North Carolina:
- TCU -3.5
- Over 56.5 total points
- TCU Over 27.5 points
- Parlay odds +508
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TCU -3.5
The Tar Heels made a splashy move when they hired Bill Belichick to become their head coach. The transfers followed in, as North Carolina will need to find a way to make 40 new guys gel, so of course, there will be some rough patches. The Horned Frogs have nine starters returning for the 2025 campaign. Last season, TCU went 3-3 against the spread as the away team, but look for them to be the better team as Belichick gets acclimated to the college game.
Over 55.5 total points
The Horned Frogs’ offense was able to move the ball up and down the field last season, as they averaged 437 total yards of offense per game. They also ranked 25th in the nation in scoring offense (33.5). Quarterback Josh Hoover is back under center for this team with his 6,157 passing yards career passing yards. Gio Lopez transferred over from South Alabama and won the starting job with the Tar Heels. Last season, he threw for 2,559 passing yards, 465 rushing yards, and 25 total touchdowns. The model predicts these teams will combine for 72 points on Monday. You can find this over/under for total points at betMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
TCU Over 27.5 points
As highlighted before, TCU put up 33.5 points per game in 2024. Hoover threw for 3,949 passing yards with 27 passing touchdowns in the previous season. Wide receiver Eric McAlister also returns to this team after notching a 39-762-5 stat line last campaign. The over cashed in four of the first five games for TCU last year. They also scored at least 34 points from Weeks 1-5. This prop is available at bet365, where you can get $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 bet:
More football picks for Week 1
You’ve seen the model’s top TCU vs. North Carolina picks for Week 1. Now with the start of the 2025 NFL season a few days away, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 1 NFL game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
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