Super Bowl race wide open with NFL powerhouse teams struggling

I expect history to repeat itself as these contenders look very vulnerable. 

Why top five teams in preseason title odds are struggling

Eagles (trenches)

The Eagles lost a lot of talent up front and they have been getting bullied. They lost right guard Mekhi Becton, defensive end Josh Sweat and defensive tackle Milton Williams this offseason. Plus, edge rusher Nolan Smith is on injured reserve and Za’Darius Smith just retired. Jalen Carter is also hurt at the moment.

Philadelphia is one of two teams ranking in the bottom five in the NFL in rush yards differential (29th) and sack differential (29th) this season, along with the 1-5 Titans. We can’t just chalk up the ground game issues to a slow start by Saquon Barkley. After all, Giants rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo just punched them in the mouth. The Eagles were outrushed by 99 yards on ‘Thursday Night Football’ last week. They are 26th in success rate defending the run this year, vs. ninth last year. 

The pass rush is probably the most worrisome, especially after it was the Eagles’ meal ticket against Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Philly ranks 23rd in pressure rate without blitzing this season. They were third a year ago.

And I haven’t even gotten to A.J. Brown and the identity issues on offense with new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo. 

The offense should recover, but the fatal flaw could be the four-man pass rush. They could improve when Nolan Smith and Jalen Carter get healthy, or if they make a trade, but I doubt it’ll replicate what last year’s unit did.

Ravens (defense)

The 2025 Ravens were the first team in the Super Bowl era to allow 37+ points in four of their first five games. The defense, injured or not, has been a disaster. They are fourth-worst in pressure rate and sack rate this year, as they have been unable to solve a problem that has plagued them for a few years. Find a star edge rusher. 

The big-name secondary hasn’t delivered yet, either. The Ravens have allowed the most completions on throws of 15+ air yards this season (26). They solved their defensive issues in the second half last year by moving Kyle Hamilton to deep safety, but they’ll need a new solution in 2025 as they plan on using Hamilton all over the field the rest of the way.

I fully expect the Ravens to make a run at the AFC North title, assuming Lamar Jackson and guys like Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey are healthy out of the bye week with a soft upcoming schedule. Still, an unreliable Lamar Jackson in the postseason, combined with a shaky defense, spells trouble in January, again.

Bills (run defense)

There are many reasons the Bills have lost two straight games, leading us to question their credentials in the AFC East, as Zach Pereles wrote this week. The fact that they’ve played the easiest schedule to date and the Patriots have the easiest road the rest of the way doesn’t help matters. The biggest reason to raise an eyebrow, though, is their run defense. They’ve allowed the most yards per rush through six games by any team in the Super Bowl era (5.8) and just got torched by Bijan Robinson. 

If they solve the run defense, then they still don’t have solutions for the reasons they didn’t get over the hump last year. No go-to target and no stud pass rusher. The Bills have one touchdown catch by a wide receiver on throws of 20+ air yards in the last two seasons, the fewest in the NFL. 

Chiefs (big plays)

The Chiefs probably have the best outlook of any of these teams, as their offense is hitting its stride and they are finally going to be at full strength on that side of the ball with Rashee Rice returning. Still, I’ll need a bigger sample to believe they are all the way back. 

Patrick Mahomes has the worst completion rate on throws of 20+ air yards (27%) in the last three seasons among the top 25 passers in attempts on those deep balls. The offense has been pedestrian in the last three seasons and the sluggish start is why the Chiefs stumbled to an 0-2 start.

Lions (Jared Goff)

I still don’t trust the Lions, no matter how good they look at times, between the razzle dazzle on offense, an efficient Jared Goff, ‘Sonic and Knuckles’, and Dan Campbell. 

I have too much Goff PTSD. He’s wildly inconsistent in big games, especially lately. The Lions offense didn’t show up in Green Bay or Kansas City in their two losses this year. Goff is 4-5 with nine interceptions in the last two seasons vs. teams that have a top-10 record in the NFL over that span. He’s 15-0 with eight interceptions vs. everyone else. That’s pretty ugly and his five-interception game in Houston last year is included with the 15-0 mark. 

Jared Goff last two seasons, including playoffs

Top teams always have an Achilles heel. This year, we’ll find out if they are fatal flaws. Right now, I’m betting yes based on the issues laid out above and an intriguing middle class with the Rams, Colts, Buccaneers, Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Falcons and more waiting in the wings.