Spurs vs. Mavericks odds, Flagg vs. Wembanyama predictions: NBA picks for Oct. 22 from proven model

Southwest Division contenders open their 2025-26 NBA seasons when the San Antonio Spurs battle the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night. It’s also a matchup of two of the league’s biggest young names and recent No. 1 overall picks as Victor Wembanyama leads the Spurs and Cooper Flagg debuts for the Mavs. Dallas lost in the play-in game last year after making the NBA Finals in 2023-24, while San Antonio has not made the postseason since 2018-19. The Spurs (34-48), who placed fourth in the division a year ago, were 13-27 on the road last season. The Mavericks (39-43), who were third in the Southwest Division, were 22-18 on their home court.

Tipoff from American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Spurs vs. Mavericks odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 223.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Spurs picks, check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past seven seasons. The model enters the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 160-118 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It also went 24-11 (69%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.  

Now, the model has simulated Spurs vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Mavericks vs. Spurs:

Why the Mavericks can cover

Top draft pick Cooper Flagg makes his NBA debut. The former Duke star and former National College Player of the Year averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks in 30.7 minutes per game. He holds the ACC freshman single-game scoring record with 42 points against Notre Dame on Jan. 11. Among his other awards last season, he was a first-team All-American, ACC Player of the Year, ACC Rookie of the Year and made the ACC All-Defensive Team.

Also helping power the offense is guard Klay Thompson. In 72 games last year, all starts, he averaged 14 points, 3.4 rebounds and two assists in 27.3 minutes of action. The five-time all-star scored a season-high 29 points on a season-high seven 3-pointers against Golden State on Dec. 15, 2024. For his career, he is averaging 19.1 points, hitting 2,697 3-pointers, fifth-most in NBA history. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Spurs can cover

Third-year veteran Victor Wembanyama helps pace the San Antonio offense. In 46 games a year ago, all starts, he averaged 24.3 points, 11 rebounds, 3.8 blocks, 3.7 assists and 1.1 steals in 33.2 minutes. He is also solid on defense and has blocked a shot in 85 straight games, a Spurs franchise record. In a win over Portland last December, Wembanyama became the sixth player in NBA history to record 30-plus points and 10-plus blocks in the same game.

Fifth-year veteran Devin Vassell is another scoring option for the Spurs. In 64 games last season, including 53 starts, he averaged 16.3 points, four rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.3 steals in 31 minutes. On March 4, he scored a career-high 37 points on 14 of 17 shooting, including 8 of 10 from 3-point range, while adding 11 rebounds. He hit a 3-pointer in 25 consecutive games. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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How to make Spurs vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model has simulated Spurs vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and is leaning Over the total, projecting 226 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks. 

So who wins Spurs vs. Mavericks, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Mavericks spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.