Six Pack of college football picks, predictions: Miami vs. Florida, Oklahoma vs. Auburn in spotlight

Things didn’t go quite the way we planned last week, but the difference between another profitable week and a losing one was slim. But isn’t that always the case? Sure, I could complain about Georgia coming up a half-point short in overtime, or about how Oregon gave up 14 points in the final 6 minutes of their 34-14 win over Northwestern to blow our cover — but nobody wants to hear that, right?

Nor would I ever want to complain about it! No, sir! That’s just not my style! No bitterness here!

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OK, so while a couple were close, we also had some stinkers. Notre Dame went way past its team total in a game that played out very differently than I expected, and while Arkansas hung with Ole Miss for a while, and I even got the backup QB matchup I was hoping for, the Hogs couldn’t hang on for 60 minutes.

The result is a 2-4 week, but the good news is we’re still (barely) profitable on the season as a whole. The better news is we have another six cracks at it this week.

Games of the Week

No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah: What an absolute banger of a football game we have on our hands this week, as these two teams have played like the best two teams in the Big 12 so far. The competition hasn’t always been the most stout, but the nerds who know how to adjust performance based on opponents tell me it hasn’t mattered. The Utes and Raiders are killing those cupcakes, which is what we expect from good teams.

As for handicapping this matchup, there is an interesting complication here. The game will kick off at 10 a.m. local time, and that can’t be easy for the players. I wonder if it could lead to some sloppy play early, but sloppy play could work to our advantage if it’s on the defensive end.

Texas Tech is second in the country in explosive play rate on offense, trailing only USC. Behren Morton has been phenomenal, and Coy Eakin has been a big-play machine. This offense is far and away the best one the Utes have seen and will present some tremendous challenges. We saw Utah’s defensive front overwhelm UCLA to open the season, but I’m not sure it can do that here. Tech’s offensive line isn’t elite, but it’s solid, particularly in pass pro.

On the flip side, Utah has one of the best offensive lines in the country. Tech’s defensive line has been outstanding to start, and it has good depth, but I believe the Utes can win a lot of the battles in this matchup. When they don’t, I trust Devon Dampier’s ability to make magic happen. In other words, I think this game won’t be fun for the guys on defense most of the late morning and early afternoon. I won’t go so far as to say this will look like an old-school Big 12 shootout, but it’ll be high-scoring. The Pick: Over 57.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma: Apologies to any Auburn fan clinging to the idea of a Jackson Arnold Revenge Game. I don’t think you’ll get it. Brent Venables has been one of the best defensive minds in the sport for a long time, and he always knows how to attack an offense’s vulnerability. In this case, he has firsthand knowledge of what the opposing quarterback does and doesn’t do well. He will exploit that.

And he has the personnel to help him. Oklahoma’s defense is nasty. From R. Mason Thomas up front to Courtland Guillory and Peyton Bowen in the back, watching these boys gives me the vapors. They’ll be giving Arnold nightmares.

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Auburn has very talented receivers, but Oklahoma has one of the few secondaries, I believe, that can limit them without just dropping into quarters all the time like Baylor did. The Sooners will look to force Arnold to beat them from the pocket, and there’s little evidence in his career to suggest he’s capable of doing it consistently.

Then there’s John Mateer and the Sooners offense. Mateer has far too much YOLO to his game at times, but he overcomes it with moments of brilliance and audacity. I’m a fan of what Auburn has up front defensively, but the back seven gives me pause. I’ve seen some tackling issues, and I’ve also seen scrambling QBs give this team trouble. This is not a great matchup for the Tigers, and being on the road only complicates matters. The Pick: Oklahoma -6.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Lock of the Week

No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska | 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App, Paramount+ Premium: Nebraska’s defense is not Oklahoma’s, let’s make that clear. However, it’s been impressive to start the season despite the change at coordinator and without some key personnel. I believe it’s a unit that matches up well with Michigan, but that’s also because I’m not a big-time believer in the Michigan offense.

I love what Bryce Underwood has the potential to be. He’s showing me things as a true freshman with three games under his belt that plenty of other hyped QB prospects I’ve seen over the years don’t show me by their second year, if ever. His pocket awareness is excellent for his age. The way he keeps his eyes downfield when moving around brings tears to my eyes.

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But he also struggled significantly against Oklahoma because his receivers could not get open. That’s the problem with this Michigan offense. I love Donovan McCulley as a big body, red zone target, but he’s not the kind of receiver who will get separation from good corners. As for the rest of the unit, well, they are on scholarship, so they have that going for them. I know Michigan aired it out last week, but this isn’t Central Michigan. Nebraska can keep these guys in check.

Defensively, the Wolverines are still good, but I don’t know that the defensive line is as talented as it has been the last few years. I haven’t seen this team generate much pressure without blitzing, and I suspect they’ll blitz a lot here. But I’ve also seen growth from Dylan Raiola this year and believe his experience, paired with his play caller, gives the Huskers an edge. Also, we can’t forget Sherrone Moore is suspended for this game and won’t be on the sideline. Some want to believe that’s to Michigan’s benefit. I am not among them. The Pick: Nebraska +2.5 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Under of the Week

Florida at No. 4 Miami: Florida is 1-2, and the narratives around the program would have you think this is the worst collection of football players you’ve ever seen. Do not overreact to it. While the offense has struggled mightily, the defense has been incredible. I mean, this team turned the ball over five times on the road against LSU and still only lost by 10 because the defense kept LSU from doing any damage afterward. That’s key in this game against Miami.

The Hurricanes have the best pairing of offensive and defensive lines in the country, but Florida is strong along both, too. The battles in the trenches will be incredible theater. I expect Florida’s offense will continue to struggle. I also expect the Miami offense to find life to be quite difficult as well. The Pick: Under 51.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Team Total of the Week

Michigan State at No. 25 USC: Two weeks ago, at home against Boston College, Michigan State’s defense was torn apart to the tune of 390 yards and four touchdowns at the hands of Dylan Lonergan. Now, I like Lonergan; he has NFL potential. In fact, I might like him more than I do USC QB Jayden Maiava.

However, while I don’t want to deny BC WRs Lewis Bond, Jeremiah Franklin or Turbo Richard their due, they are not the receivers Michigan State will have to deal with here. Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane and Lake McRee have combined for 32 receptions for 723 yards and four touchdowns in three games, and they aren’t playing second halves. This offense has blown the doors off people, and while it struggled a little last week, that was on the road. This time it’s the Trojans at home and the Spartans crossing the Aegean Sea Rocky Mountains. Toss in what I consider a high likelihood Michigan State QB Aidan Chiles hands the Trojans some short fields with turnovers, and I can see this USC team eclipsing 40 points again. The Pick: USC Team Total o37.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Upset of the Week

NC State at Duke: I am not of the opinion Duke is bad, but Duke has lost two straight coming into this one. That includes a 26-point home loss to Illinois two weeks ago and a loss on the road to Tulane last week that wasn’t nearly as close as the score suggests (Tulane led 34-16 with 5 minutes to play). The Blue Devils defense has not looked nearly as good this season, and Darian Mensah has five turnovers in three games (2 INT, 3 fumbles).

Meanwhile, the Wolfpack feature two explosive playmakers in running back Hollywood Smothers and tight end Justin Joly. QB CJ Bailey will have his coaches reaching for a bottle of antacid no fewer than three times per game with his decisions, but he has the ability to make spectacular plays, too. I don’t imagine Duke will have much of a home-field advantage here, as plenty of Pack fans could make the short trip from Raleigh. That makes NC State a very live dog in my estimation. The Pick: NC State (+145) at DraftKings Sportsbook

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