One tight end is playing in his first Super Bowl, in his 10th season in the NFL. The other tight end is playing in his first Super Bowl, in just his second year.
The New England Patriots’ 31-year-old team captain Hunter Henry and the Seattle Seahawks’ 23-year-old AJ Barner have taken different roads to get to the same point: Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. But both will play significant roles for their team in the biggest game of the year.
DraftKings has set Henry’s receptions prop at 3.5 and his receiving yards prop at 38.5. Meanwhile Barners’ are 2.5 and 25.5. Those are just some of the hundreds of tight end player props available for Super Bowl LX.
Hunter Henry, Patriots
Total receptions: 3.5
Total receiving yards: 38.5
Anytime TD scorer: +225
First TD scorer: +1300
Most receiving yards: +1000
Most receptions: +860
Super Bowl MVP: +11000
Despite being toward the tail end of his career, Henry is in the midst of arguably his best NFL season. During the regular season, he had 60 catches for 768 yards and seven touchdowns. And in three playoff games, he has six catches for 81 yards and another score despite playing three of the toughest defenses in the NFL and facing weather conditions that weren’t conducive to throwing the ball.
Henry has gone Over 38.5 receiving yards in 11 of 20 games this season, including six of his last 10 games. During the regular season, he ranked second on the team in targets (87), receptions (60) and receiving yards (768) behind only Stefon Diggs.
Best bets: Henry Over 3.5 receptions, Over 38.5 receiving yards
Few Patriots players have a plus matchup against the Seahawks’ No. 1 scoring defense, but Henry certainly does. Because Seattle emphasizes stopping the run and limiting receivers on the outside, tight ends have found success against the Seahawks. The defense is allowing a passer rating of 102.2 when throwing to tight ends, which ranks a rather meh 18th in the league. During the regular season, the unit gave up 8.47 targets per game to tight ends, which was tied for fourth-most in the NFL. And in the last two playoff games, both the 49ers’ Jake Tonges (59 receiving yards) and the Rams’ Colby Parkinson (62 receiving yards) cleared 38.5 receiving yards easily.
AJ Barner, Seahawks
Total receptions: 2.5
Total receiving yards: 25.5
Anytime TD scorer: +225
First TD scorer: +1300
Most receiving yards: +2800
Most receptions: +1940
Super Bowl MVP: +10000
Barner’s production roughly doubled in his second year in the league, improving to 52 catches for 519 yards and six touchdowns during the regular season. He was second on the team, behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba, in both receptions and receiving touchdowns.
In the Super Bowl, Barner will face a New England defense that has been good at limiting tight ends this season. Behind safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson, the Patriots allow a passer rating of 98.2 when throwing to tight ends, which ranks 10th in the league.
Note: New England opponents were playing from behind a lot this season, and game script certainly skews those numbers. In the second halves this season, the Patriots gave up 3.3 catches to tight ends for 34.5 yards, which ranked 27th and 28th in the league, respectively. So any bettor who believes the Seahawks will be forced to throw in the second half should consider Barner’s props.
Best bets: Barner Under 2.5 receptions, Under 25.5 receiving yards
While Barner has gone Over 2.5 receptions and 25.5 receiving yards in 10 of 19 games this season, he has gone Under those totals in each of his last three games. Over his last four games, he has had three, three, zero and three targets total. Even in the 31-27 shootout against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, he had just two catches for 13 yards.
A banged-up body could certainly be playing a role. He has been a regular member of the injury report over the last month with knee, shoulder, ankle, elbow and hip injuries. The extra week before the Super Bowl should certainly help, but Under Barner’s totals seems to be the right plays.
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