After an almost perfect performance in the first leg, defeating Real Madrid 3-0, Arsenal will need to push that out of their memories because there is still a job to do in this second leg in Madrid. Carlo Ancelotti’s Madrid have no fear and will expect that even with a three-goal deficit and the absence of Eduardo Camavinga, they can come back in the match.
Being held to only three shots on target in the first leg while Declan Rice scored two free kick, that may not be the case for Los Blancos, but if they enter with fear, this match will be over before it even gets started. Our James Benge is convinced this tie is over. Madrid have engineered comeback performances in the past, but against this driven Arsenal side and their strong team defense, it could be slightly too much of a challenge to overcome But that’s exactly why we play the games. Changes could be incoming, considering that Madrid have now failed to win three of their last five games in all competitions while seeing La Liga and a chance at the Champions League title begin to slip out of their grasp.
Here are storylines, how you can watch the match and more:
How to watch Real Madrid vs. Arsenal, odds
- Date: Wednesday, April 16 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu — Madrid, Spain
- Live stream: Paramount+
- Odds: Real Madrid -140; Draw +300; Arsenal +340
First leg recap
Early on, Real Madrid had their chances facing Arsenal but when Rice scored a stunning free kick, it all went downhill from there. Arsenal’s defense left Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior without clear chances in the match before Rice delivered another moment of magic, and then Mikel Merino helped push Arsenal to their final advantage. With Camavinga being sent off, Real Madrid will now be without one of their midfielders in the second leg of play, but after a heavy defeat in the first leg, changes would be incoming anyway.
Best bets
Kylian Mbappe to have 3+ shots on target (+110): This is a legacy-defining game for Mbappe. Even if Real Madrid don’t advance, they’ll want to ensure that they give their all in the clash, which is where all eyes come to Mbappe. He was signed to push Real Madrid past every other European side, and while at times it has looked like he is bringing that, the attack has struggled with balance trying to integrate him. If Los Blancos are going to win, Mbappe will need a career-defining game.
What’s at stake
Legacies. Arsenal have never won the Champions League in their storied history, and they’re 90 minutes from getting past one of the best teams in UCL history in Real Madrid. For a team that has come so close to winning Premier League titles under Mikel Arteta, this is a massive moment to prove that Arsenal are back with the best teams in the world. Getting past Real Madrid could make Arsenal one of the favorites to win the competition, even with Paris Saint-Germain looming in the next round. For Madrid, there’s plenty of noise around Ancelotti’s future, and if this is his last season coaching Real Madrid, nothing will be more important than leaving at the top of the mountain, winning back-to-back Champions League titles. It’s a tough thing to accomplish, but if anyone can do it, it’s Real Madrid.
Predicted lineups
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Lucas Vazquez, Raul Asencio, Antonio Rudiger, Francisco Garcia, Aurelien Tchouameni, Fede Valverde, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe
Arsenal: David Raya, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Jakub Kiwior, William Saliba, Jurrien Timber, Mikel Merino, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Bukayo Saka
Player to watch
Jakub Kiwior, Arsenal: When Gabriel went down with an injury, there were concerns that Arsenal’s defense would take a step back, but yet again, Arteta has been able to ensure that the Gunners have prepared replacements. Kiwior stepped into central defense and Arsenal didn’t miss a beat in the first leg, but doing that in front of your home fans is an entirely different situation than a trip to the Santiago Bernabeu. If Kiwior can repeat his performance from the first leg of play, Arsenal will move on in the competition, but if not, it will be a nervy match.
Storyline to watch
Who scores the first goal? In a match like this, nothing is more important than the first goal. If Real Madrid can get one back in the first 20 minutes, the thoughts of “here we go again” will begin to go through the heads of Arsenal players. Also, if Arsenal score first, four goals will feel like too much to overcome even for Real Madrid. Teams have come back from three-goal deficits before in the Champions League knockouts, but no team has ever come back from four goals down, so if that ends up being the case, Real Madrid will have to make history. The Gunners should feel confident that one goal will do it, because that would mean Real would need four to just reach extra time.
Prediction
Via Mbappe, Real Madrid will push Arsenal in the game, but scoring three goals on the Gunners is quite a tall task. Arsenal have yet to give up even three goals in a single game this season. These days, keeping a clean sheet is a tall enough order for Real Madrid, so they’d likely need four goals to have a chance to even force extra time here. Arsenal have been a team in the past that can beat themselves when the lights shine the brightest, but so far, things have been different this season.
When Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard are healthy, this is a different team, and that will be enough to push them to a massive result, advancing past Real Madrid despite losing away from home. Pick: Real Madrid 2, Arsenal 1
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