The cash at the top of the Big 12 has been a massive storyline throughout the spring. Texas Tech and BYU do not just have good money; they have lavish money. It’s changed a smidge of the power dynamic in a league that was once dominated by the house of horrors that is Allen Fieldhouse.
While the Big 12 fell slightly behind the SEC and the Big Ten in the national pecking order last season, the influx of NBA talent could help change that. Eight of the top-20 recruits in the Class of 2025 are Big 12-bound, and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson and BYU’s AJ Dybantsa will be firmly in the mix to be No. 1 picks in next year’s NBA Draft.
Buckle up. Winning the crown this year will be no easy task because the big dawgs at the top of the food chain have built jam-packed rosters.
Ranking Big Ten basketball teams by tiers: Purdue, Michigan, Illinois at top of ultra-deep conference
Isaac Trotter
So, who is going to be good in this newcomer-heavy Big 12? Tiers provide a preferable way of contextualizing the outlook.
- Tier 1 – Title contenders: Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have the upside to win the title. Not just make the second weekend. Not just win three in a row because of a nice draw. Six straight, do-or-die wins.
- Tier 2 – Top-25 caliber club: These teams have accrued plenty of talent and should be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few flaws that could keep them out of the top tier.
- Tier 3 – Tournament team: These teams have built good rosters and could flirt with top-25 status, but let’s be honest: they aren’t serious title threats.
- Tier 4 – Bubblicious: A Big Dance appearance is in the range of potential outcomes, but the NIT, the Crown (or worse) looms if things fizzle.
- Tier 5 – The basement: These teams have a slim chance of making the Big Dance unless something drastically clicks or they make a late splash in recruiting.
Just a reminder: things can change late in the cycle, especially with some top teams still on the prowl for a major piece or two.
Before we dive in, let’s take a look back at last year’s standings:
2024-25 Big 12 standings
Tier 1: National championship contenders
Houston
2024-25 record: 35-5
Postseason: Lost in national championship game
| PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP |
| G Milos Uzan* |
| G Emanuel Sharp* |
| G Isiah Harwell (247Sports No. 16 player in Class of 2025) |
| F Chris Cenac (247Sports No. 7 player in Class of 2025) |
| F Joseph Tugler* |
Returning starters indicated by *
Top bench options: G Kingston Flemings, G Ramon Walker, G Mercy Miller, F Kalifa Sakho, F Cedric Lath
The scoop: Houston owned a +32 net rating with Uzan, Sharp and Tugler on the floor together in Quad 1 games, per CBB Analytics. Ludicrous stuff to get all three of those program anchors back for another run at a title. Uzan should be firmly in the mix for Big 12 Player of the Year, Sharp could lead the league in triples and Tugler is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Add in two NBA prospects in Harwell and Cenac to that nucleus, and special things could be in store for Kelvin Sampson’s bunch in 2025-26.
Houston’s perimeter size will jump off the tape. The size of Harwell (6-6), Sharp (6-3) and Uzan (6-4) will give opponents problems all year, and the addition of Sakho shouldn’t be overlooked. Houston’s frontcourt depth has been its secret sauce, and it can keep that blueprint alive. Houston will be Houston on the glass. It might not be perfect right away, but Houston will be Houston on defense once the young fellas get up to speed. It needs one of its young guys (like Flemings or Miller) to pop off the bench, but Sampson’s built another team capable of uncorking a run.
Bites at the apple, man. Bites at the apple.
Texas Tech
2024-25 record: 28-9
Postseason: Lost in Elite Eight
Top bench options: C Luke Bamgboye, F Josiah Moseley, F Marial Akuentok
The scoop: Grant McCasland is an expert roster builder. Outside of maybe needing one more guard, Texas Tech has everything else it needs to make another run. The Christian Anderson-JT Toppin duo can go bucket-for-bucket with anybody in the country, and Texas Tech replaced the irreplaceable Darrion Williams almost too flawlessly. Watts will be awesome as a mismatch hunter who can pass the cover off it, and Texas Tech loaded up on mid-major drillers in Bryan and Atwell who have positional size and also stick their faces in the fan on the glass. Moseley is a smart gamble, but Bamgboye is another insanely sharp addition. The VCU transfer gives Texas Tech a special rim protector who can single-handedly raise the floor of a defense.
McCasland can go with a double-big lineup of Toppin and Bamgboye easily. He can shift his personnel to go big or small based on matchups or whoever is playing well. Giving this staff this much optionality is a cheat code. Maybe Texas Tech’s perimeter defense isn’t quite up to par, but Texas Tech’s offense should go vroom vroom.
BYU
2024-25 record: 26-10
Postseason: Lost in Sweet 16
| PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP |
| G Rob Wright (Baylor transfer) |
| G Kennard Davis (Southern Illinois transfer) |
| G Richie Saunders* |
| G/F AJ Dybantsa (247Sports No. 2 player in Class of 2025) |
| F Keba Keita* |
Top bench options: G Dawson Baker, F Mihailo Boskovic, C Xavion Staton, G Nate Pickens, G/F Tyler Mrus
The scoop: BYU’s best four players are just terrific. Dybantsa is the sell. The potential No. 1 pick has every athletic tool to be one of the best players in college basketball, and BYU has wisely surrounded him with a terrific situation to accentuate his strengths and make the game easier. Poaching Wright from Baylor was a massive development. BYU needed a paint-touch guard and got the best one on the board. Richie Saunders is back to do what Richie Saunders does: hand out buckets. Saunders could easily join the coveted 50-40-90 Club this season. Keita is a tough, physical, two-way big who embraces his role. Those four are the anchors, and BYU has loaded up on shooters to complement Dybantsa’s drives, Wright’s pick-and-roll game and Saunders’ off-movement brilliance.
Keep an eye on both Davis and Boskovic. Davis, a Southern Illinois transfer, should be unleashed defensively in a smaller offensive role, but he’s capable of adding another shot-creating big guard to this mix. Boskovic is a rangy 6-10 forward who can shoot it and drive long closeouts. BYU coach Kevin Young has so many buttons he can press offensively, and the Cougs’ defense should be able to play more coverages with, candidly, way better athletes. The ground that Dybantsa and Davis can cover on the perimeter is just a different level compared to previous iterations of BYU basketball.
BYU can win six straight.
Tier 2: Top 25 caliber club
Arizona
2024-25 record: 24-13
Postseason: Lost in Sweet 16
| PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP |
| G Jaden Bradley* |
| G Brayden Burries (247Sports No. 9 player in Class of 2025) |
| G Anthony Dell’Orso* |
| F Koa Peat (247Sports No. 11 player in Class of 2025) |
| F Tobe Awaka* |
Top bench options: C Motiejus Krivas, F Ivan Kharchenkov, F Dwayne Aristode, C Sidi Gueye
The scoop: Opponents better strap on a football helmet before playing Arizona because this team is huge, physical and filled with dudes who want to smack people. Bullyball should be the name of the game for Arizona. It can trot out some double-big lineups with Awaka and Krivas to dominate the glass and win the battle at the rim on both ends.
It’s a bit of a weird roster. Arizona has five, maybe even six, players who are best suited to play the 4 or the 5 in Peat, Awaka, Krivas, Kharchenkov, Aristode and Gueue. There’s not a ton of proven floor-stretchers in this frontcourt now that Henri Veesaar dipped for UNC and Carter Bryant leveled up into the lottery-pick conversation. But Tommy Lloyd is a sharp game-planner who will use the advantage on the glass to fuel an excellent transition offense. Bradley is a total stud point guard who has gotten better every single year, and he will make the game easy for a five-star like Burries. Arizona needs Burries to be a real producer from the jump. I’m betting that happens since Burries is older and so polished offensively.
Maybe Arizona is a tad clunky offensively, but Lloyd seems to figure these things out eventually. The defense, rim protection, high-upside talent, physicality, rebounding and transition scoring give this group a chance to be highly competitive.
Kansas
2024-25 record: 21-13
Postseason: Lost in first round
Top bench options: G Elmarko Jackson, F Bryson Tiller, F Samis Calderon, G Jamari McDowell, G Noah Shelby
The scoop: Kansas is one of the main high-major clubs with lots still on the line in roster-building. KU needs another significant piece, and Bill Self is sniffing around some studs in the international market. While we wait for clarity, Kansas still has a major chance to make noise in this league because it has NBA guys on the roster again. Peterson and Bidunga will be one of the elite lead guard-big man combinations in college basketball, and Self loaded up on veteran role players who want to be role players. Dawson is a net-shredding sharpshooter. Council can make open 3-pointers, defend and slash. White is the ‘ole jack of all trades, master of none.
You can mention how Jackson needs to get healthy to buff up this frontcourt depth, and how Tiller needs to be a useful role player, but this all hinges on Peterson being who they say he is. The 6-5 freshman lead guard just looks a little different, and Self is slated to hand him a massive usage rate. If Kansas has the No. 1 pick in the 2026 Draft combined with the fierce, two-way rim dominance that Bidunga single-handedly brings to a squad, KU is going to be a tough out.
Kansas could certainly vault into Tier 1 if the late splash is the real deal, but Tier 2 is the most likely outcome for a roster that’s still not complete.
Iowa State
2024-25 record: 25-10
Postseason: Lost in second round
Top bench options: G Mason Williams, G Nate Heise, G Eric Mulder, G Jamarion Batemon, F Dominykas Pleta
The scoop: Iowa State does not have a top-of-the-line budget, but T.J. Otzelberger is a terrific team-builder/portal evaluator who filled big voids with under-the-radar transfers who should be productive. Nelson is a big, 6-5 guard who can score in transition and can guard. Nelson’s got a lot of Keshon Gilbert in his game. Mason Williams provides another rangy, 6-5 guard who is a high-volume shooter. He’s not Curtis Jones, but Williams will be tasked replacing some of Jones’ rainmaking. Buchanan and Mulder? Perfect frontcourt additions who will so clearly stick in this rotation all year.
But this team is about the returners. Jefferson is one of the excellent 4-men in the country who every coach respects (and secretly covets). First-Team, All-Big 12? It’s in the range of possibilities. Momcilovic provides a halfcourt offensive anchor who should score 12 points a night without even trying. Lipsey needs to get healthy because Iowa State needs way more out of him offensively this year, but Otzelberger’s point-of-attack defense will be in great shape with him on the floor.
Iowa State is unquestionably a good team. It has a defensive style that translates and the personnel on that end is very good. Otzelberger has eight, nine or maybe even 10 guys that he can trust to play real minutes. The Cyclones look like a lock to make the Big Dance, but I don’t think Iowa State is National Championship-level good.
Tier 3: NCAA Tournament team
Baylor
2024-25 record: 20-15
Postseason: Lost in second round
Top bench options: G JJ White, G/F Cam Carr, F Caden Powell, G Isaac Williams
The scoop: Scott Drew has overhauled this Baylor roster, and stylistically, it looks wildly different. Last year featured small guards, one VJ Edgecombe and a smaller frontcourt. This team has way more positional size on the wing and in the frontcourt. Yessoufou is a jaw-dropping athlete, and Baylor should get some real rim protection from Bodo Bodo. High Point opponents shot just 51% at the rim when the 7-footer was on the floor.
But this is a big bet on Agbim and Rataj being Day 1 studs. All the positional size on the wing and the frontcourt should insulate some of Agbim’s defensive issues and free him up to just go score. The Wyoming transfer is a tantalizing lead guard who can drill both 3-pointers and pull-up jumpers at a high level. Rataj had flashes where he looked like the best 4-man in the portal.
Baylor has enough talent to coalesce into a tournament team. And remember: sometimes, change is good.
Tier 4: Bubblicious
Kansas State
2024-25 record: 16-17
Postseason: None
Top bench options: F Elias Rapieque, G Abdi Bashir Jr., F Mobi Ikegwuruka, G David Castillo, F Marcus Johnson
The scoop: The silhouette of a tournament team is clear in Manhattan. Haggerty is a massive floor-raising addition. He can dominate in transition, create a bit and score at all three levels in the halfcourt. Pairing one of the best scoring guards in college basketball with a sturdy defender like Johnson should give Kansas State a shot every night. Kostic should be one of the most impactful international additions in college basketball. The 6-5 guard can shoot it and get shifty with it off the bounce, and Bashir has a strap. That backcourt is much-improved with loads of versatility compared to last year’s K-State club, and Smith, Rapieque and McGriff form a long-armed, defense-first frontcourt.
After last year’s rollercoaster, Haggerty’s night-in, night-out steadiness and consistency should be a breath of fresh air and a real beacon for the rest of the team. It’s not a lock, but Kansas State should hear its name called on Selection Sunday.
Cincinnati
2024-25 record: 19-16
Postseason: Lost in the second round of the College Basketball Crown
Top bench options: G Sencire Harris, F Jalen Haynes, G Kerr Kriisa, F Tyler McKinley, G Keyshaun Tillery
The scoop: Big 12 defenses have put Wes Miller’s halfcourt offense in the mud in back-to-back seasons. Changes had to be made. One big pivot is that Cincinnati will not be playing two non-shooters in the frontcourt anymore. Thiam, Miller and Celestine can all stretch the floor, and that should help the situation for James improve mightily. James is a good player, but his ceiling is capped when he doesn’t get to the free-throw line and doesn’t make 3-pointers at a high clip. Improved spacing could help James put it all together.
Miller has so clearly raised the talent level. Abaev is a touted recruit who should be a Day 1 starter on the wing and can go get a bucket for himself in a flash. The 7-2 Thiam is just oozing with two-way upside, and Cincinnati’s rim defense should be excellent with him and Miller on the floor together. You can easily talk yourself into this team, but the guard play is the pivotal X-Factor. Cincinnati makes the NCAA Tournament if James, surrounded with better spacing and more talent, takes the leap and solidifies himself as one of the better lead guards in the Big 12.
West Virginia
2024-25 record: 19-13
Postseason: None
Top bench options: G Honor Huff, G Morris Ugusuk, F Jackson Fields, G Jayden Forsythe
The scoop: Ross Hodge has a chance to be very competitive in Year 1 at West Virginia with a roster stocked full of veterans. West Virginia’s top-eight players will be upperclassmen. Hodge convinced two of his most reliable hoopers at North Texas (Lorient and Floyd) to join him at WVU. It’s just a nice mix of defense-first pieces like Floyd, Moore, Obioha and Fields mixed with a dynamic movement shooter like Huff, a toolsy, two-way 4-man in Lorient and another bucket-getter in Eaglestaff. West Virginia might not have that game-changing superstar, but this gritty, grind-you-down style should work in the Big 12. Plus, both Lorient and Eaglestaff have some fireworks in their arsenal. Each is capable of carrying a team offensively on any given night.
This is also a bet on this coaching tree, too. Hodge cut his teeth under Grant McCasland for years. Now he gets to tangle with his old boss. West Virginia is a safe wager to beat the preseason outlook.
Tier 5: The basement
Oklahoma State
2024-25 record: 17-18
Postseason: Lost in the third round of the NIT
Top bench options: G Vyctorius Miller, F Robert Jennings, F Ben Ahmed, G Jaylen Curry, G Ryan Crotty
The scoop: Steve Lutz has way more firepower this year, that’s for sure. Clary, Roy and Isaiah Coleman all have experience being at the top of the scouting report, and Oklahoma State can afford to bring Miller off the bench. He’s another talented bucket-getter that Oklahoma State just didn’t have last year. Oklahoma State was the worst offense in the Big 12 last season. While there are questions about who makes each other better, it’s crystal clear that this group will be far more potent. Plus, Lutz gave shot-creating guards/wings some hard-playing, smart role players like Christian Coleman, Fallah and Jennings in that frontcourt.
Oklahoma State will be better. A top-60 finish on kenpom.com isn’t unrealistic after barely sneaking back into the top-100 when 2024-25 concluded. There’s just some combustibility with this core. Roy’s off-court shenanigans are well-documented. Clary was dismissed at Penn State and barely played at Mississippi State. Can Lutz keep that at bay?
TCU
2024-25 record: 16-16
Postseason: None
Top bench options: G Tanner Toolson, F Micah Robinson, F Jace Posey, F Xavier Edmonds, G Kayden Edwards, G RJ Jones, C Vianney Salatchoum
The scoop: TCU’s guard play had to drive Jamie Dixon nuts last year. Dixon’s ball-handlers posted a 20% turnover rate in pick-and-rolls. That just cannot happen again. TCU’s new starting backcourt of Harding and Pierre is not immune to coughing it up, but the roles are more defined. Harding is an excellent pick-and-roll manipulator with high feel, which should free up Pierre to just be a bucket-getter. Dixon smartly paired shooters like Lelevicius and Toolson next to big-wing defenders like Punch, Posey and Robinson.
Although losing Ernest Udeh to Miami was a big blow, TCU’s depth is in decent shape. It invested in young guys like Punch, Robinson, Diallo and Posey and none of them transferred. Those developmental bets have to pay off for TCU to go dancing because the talent level isn’t quite at the level of some of the other Big 12 foes.
UCF
2024-25 record: 20-17
Postseason: Lost in the championship of the College Basketball Crown
Top bench options: F Devan Cambridge, G Carmelo Pacheco, F Kris Parker, F Jordan Burks, G George Beale
The scoop: It’s a Milwaukee class reunion at UCF. Freeman, Fulks and Stillwell are all proud Panthers who charted down to UCF to headline a funky-looking, transfer-heavy squad. Johnny Dawkins has 12 transfers walking into this gym, and UCF is embarking on a full retool.
UCF built a top-50 offense last year by playing lightning fast and firing a ton of 3s, but this roster doesn’t look built to do that. Three of UCF’s projected starters (Themus, Stillwell, Bol) aren’t terrifying shooters at all. On paper, Kugel is the most talented player on the team. The table is set for the well-traveled, explosive 6-5 guard to get as many shots as he wants. If Freeman makes it there, UCF will have two proven wing scorers.
A Kugel-Freeman, 1-2 punch screams your-turn, my-turn offense, and that’s a bit terrifying against these Big 12 defenses. But Stillwell is a terrific rebounder and when healthy, Cambridge can be, too. Maybe offensive rebounding could be a strength of this team due to the size and depth of this frontcourt. Bol, a 7-2 center, is an understandable upside swing to anchor this back-line defense. He won’t be as polished offensively as Moustapha Thiam, but you can see the vision defensively if he can slow the game down and find his footing.
This is Year 10 for Dawkins and it’s a mismash, transfer-laden roster with little continuity and little-to-no NBA talent? Losing Thiam to Cincinnati, especially the way it went down, was just a crushing blow for this roster. Even sniffing the bubble with this team would be a huge win.
Utah
2024-25 record: 16-17
Postseason: Lost in the first round of the College Basketball Crown
Top bench options: F James Okonkwo, G Elijah Moore, F Babacar Faye
The scoop: We’ll learn a lot about Alex Jensen’s player-development chops because this Utah roster has just one proven high-major difference-maker in Dawes. A 6-9 forward who is a double-double machine is a good place to start, but Utah’s backcourt will make-or-break Year 1.
Mixing McHenry, a shooter, with Brown, a slick driver, makes sense. Traore and Howard are eye-popping athletes with the physical tools to be two-way difference-makers. They should get plenty of real-game reps after inconsistent playing time last year at Iowa and Auburn, respectively. Utah should be competent on the glass and athletically with Dawes, Faye, Traore, Howard and Okonkwo. There just could be stretches where this offense gets very stagnant if McHenry and Brown, who were not very efficient at the mid-major ranks last year, have to be the engines of this attack.
Utah loaded up on transfers with multiple years of eligibility which could make sense if Jensen can develop this young core of Howard, Traore, Brown and Moore and keep ’em around for 2026-27.
Colorado
2024-25 record: 14-21
Postseason: Lost in the first round of the College Basketball Crown
| PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP |
| G Barrington Hargress (UC Riverside transfer) |
| G Jalin Holland (247Sports No. 130 player in Class of 2025) |
| G/F Felix Kossaras |
| F Sebastian Rancick |
| F Bangot Dak* |
Top bench options: G Josiah Sanders, G Isaiah Johnson, C Tacko Fawaz, G/F Andrew Crawford
The scoop: For the second year in a row, Tad Boyle’s roster looks like he did not have the buying power to go toe-to-toe with some of the Big 12 rivals in the portal. UC Riverside transfer Barrington Hargress is a sweet addition. He’ll be instant offense all year, and getting Dak back is a nice win. The string-bean, 6-11 big man played really well in Big 12 play and can be one of the best players on this team in 2025-26. Holland is a nice-looking freshman, but Colorado is going to be fighting an uphill battle with one of the youngest rosters in the league.
At some point, it bears wondering if Colorado wants to be good at basketball. The resources do not seem to reflect that.
Arizona State
2024-25 record: 13-20
Postseason: Lost in the first round of the College Basketball Crown
Top bench options: F Andrija Grbovic, G Trevor Best, F Marcus Jackson, F Jaion Pitt, G Jake O’Neil, G Bryce Ford
The scoop: Arizona State’s talent has dropped precipitously now that Jayden Quaintance and Joson Sanon left for Kentucky and St. John’s, respectively. This roster is filled with mid-major players looking to strike big in one of the best leagues in the country.
That’s a terrifying thought.
Odom is a dazzling pick-and-roll maestro, and Arizona State loaded up on shooters to keep the floor spread. Adams is a former ballyhooed recruit who can play in this league as a mismatch forward who can score. Those two have to carry this group. But there’s just major questions up and down this roster. It has very little real rim protection. It has small, slim guards and no wing defenders. The defense could be a sieve, unless Bobby Hurley pulls some (sun) devil magic.
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