Reigning UCL champions Paris Saint-Germain begin their title defense in earnest when they host Chelsea in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie with the Blues on Wednesday, March 11. PSG were fortunate to get past fellow Ligue 1 side Monaco in the playoff 5-4 on aggregate, while Chelsea finished sixth in the league phase to advance directly into the Round of 16.
Kickoff from Parc des Princes in Paris is set for 4 p.m. ET and you can watch all the Champions League action live on Paramount+. PSG are -105 favorites (wager $105 to win $100) on the money line in the latest PSG vs. Chelsea odds at DraftKings Sportsbook while the visitors are +270 (wager $100 to win $270). A draw is priced at +275 and the total is 2.5 (Over -170, Under +130). You can see the latest PSG vs. Chelsea predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model here, but be sure to see what SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green has locked in for his best bets in this contest.
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After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others. Anyone who follows him could be way up.
Here are Green’s best bets and analysis for PSG vs. Chelsea on Wednesday, March 11.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Chelsea best bets
- Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-120): 1 unit
- Chelsea +1 (-110): 0.5 units
PSG will be out for revenge when they host Chelsea for a Champions League Round of 16 clash on Wednesday. The Parisians were crowned champions of Europe after thrashing Inter Milan 5-0 in the final of this competition last season. They then headed to the United States to compete in the FIFA Club World Cup and were installed as favorites to lift the trophy. PSG beat the likes of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid to secure a place in the final. They were widely expected to sweep Chelsea aside, but the Blues ended up clinching a shock 3-0 win. Cole Palmer scored twice in the opening 30 minutes, and João Pedro’s strike killed the game before halftime. PSG were humiliated, but they finally have the chance to avenge that defeat. Once again, the Parisians are the heavy favorites to win, but you can’t write off this dangerous young Chelsea team, so it promises to be another entertaining game.
Rosenior has a strong record at Chelsea
Much has changed since these teams clashed in the Club World Cup final last summer. Chelsea made a poor start to the 2025-26 season, and the club fired manager Enzo Maresca after he fell out with the board. The Blues brought in Liam Rosenior, an inexperienced young coach, to replace Maresca — and the results have been pretty strong.
They’ve picked up 10 wins, two draws, and three defeats from 15 games since he took charge of the team in January. All three of those defeats came against Arsenal. The Gunners beat Chelsea in both legs of their EFL Cup semifinal clash, and they also beat Chelsea in the league. The Blues are now fifth in the Premier League table, 19 points behind leaders Arsenal, so they have no chance of winning the title. They’re out of the EFL Cup, but they’re still going strong in the FA Cup and the Champions League. Chelsea finished sixth in the Champions League table with five wins, one draw, and two defeats from eight games. That earned them an automatic place in the Round of 16.
PSG have missed Donnarumma
Luis Enrique is still in charge at PSG, but the Parisians have struggled to replicate the sparkling form they displayed in the second half of the 2025-26 season. They finished 11th in the Champions League table, with four wins, two draws, and two defeats from eight matches. That meant PSG had to navigate a two-leg playoff against Monaco, with the winner advancing to the Round of 16. The first leg was delicately poised at 2-2 but Monaco had a player sent off and PSG ended up winning 3-2. Monaco were also leading the second leg, but they had another player sent off and the game ultimately finished 2-2. That meant PSG scraped through 5-4 on aggregate, but their performances were far from convincing. They then lost 3-1 at home to Monaco in Ligue 1 on Friday, so they’re now just a point clear of Lens at the top of the table. The Parisians are still strong in attack, but they’ve been conceding more goals this season. The club offloaded goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma in the summer and brought in Lucas Chevalier to replace him.
That didn’t work out. Chevalier has been benched, and Matvey Safonov has now emerged as PSG’s first-choice goalkeeper. He’s a downgrade on Donnarumma, leaving the Parisians more exposed in defense. Fabián Ruiz is out injured and João Neves is also recovering from an ankle injury, so he may be unable to start this game. That will leave PSG’s midfield depleted, so they could struggle to deal with Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo and Enzo Fernández. Rosenior rested key players for Chelsea’s FA Cup Round of 16 game against Wrexham on Saturday. Caicedo, Fernández, Pedro, Palmer, captain Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, and Marc Cucurella should all be fresh for this match. Chelsea’s defense is poor, so the Blues are unlikely to keep a clean sheet, but they have enough offensive weapons to hurt PSG’s creaking backline. Chelsea won’t be afraid of PSG, and they could be very competitive against this struggling team.
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