The NFL season is nearing its halfway point, and the league is as unpredictable as ever.
Entering the Week 8 slate of games, six of the eight divisions have a team in first place — or tied for first — that did not win its division last season. All of the divisions in the AFC have new leaders: the New England Patriots in the AFC East, the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South and the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. The Green Bay Packers lead the NFC North and the San Francisco 49ers top the NFC West, rounding out the six divisions with new frontrunners.
The Colts still have the AFC’s best record at 6-1, while the Packers are atop the NFC at 4-1-1. Green Bay has a huge matchup Sunday night in Pittsburgh, which highlights the Week 8 slate. The Broncos host the Dallas Cowboys, and the Buffalo Bills return from their bye to face the Carolina Panthers.
Of course, overreactions are part of the NFL experience these days. Can we will them into existence? Perhaps, depending on how this week’s games unfold — and how we predict they’ll go.
These overreaction predictions are based on what we think will happen this week, rather than the actual results.
Buckle up.
Dak Prescott will vault himself to front of NFL MVP conversation
Prescott has been playing at an MVP level all year, yet he’s been overshadowed by the Cowboys’ record (3-3-1) and a defense that ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed per game (401.6), tied for 30th in yards per play allowed (6.1), and 30th in points per possession (2.72).
There’s a real conversation to be had regarding Prescott’s MVP candidacy. He ranks fourth in the league in completion percentage (71.4%), second in passing yards (1,881), second in passing touchdowns (16) and eighth in passer rating (107.6). Prescott has been outstanding but remains under the radar among MVP candidates.
If the Cowboys beat the Broncos in Denver and Prescott maintains this form against a top-five pass defense, expect the MVP talk around him to grow louder.
NFL MVP odds
via FanDuel Sportsbook
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +125 | 44.4% |
| Josh Allen | +350 | 22.2% |
| Drake Maye | +700 | 12.5% |
| Baker Mayfield | +900 | 10.0% |
| Matthew Stafford | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Jared Goff | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Dak Prescott | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Daniel Jones | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Jordan Love | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Lamar Jackson | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Sam Darnold | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Jalen Hurts | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Justin Herbert | +4000 | 2.4% |
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Vikings have a quarterback problem
The Vikings are starting Carson Wentz on Thursday night against the Chargers, as head coach Kevin O’Connell said J.J. McCarthy (ankle) isn’t ready to return. Minnesota is on a short week, but McCarthy was questionable to play before being ruled inactive as the emergency third quarterback.
Wentz has been solid but inconsistent in his four starts, completing 66.9% of his passes for 1,072 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions for an 89.3 passer rating. That inconsistency has been a theme since his 2017 knee injury. Sunday’s loss to the Eagles was another example, as Wentz threw two interceptions in the defeat.
Now Wentz is dealing with a shoulder injury on a short week, and McCarthy still isn’t ready to return. Do the Vikings even want him back yet? Outside of the fourth quarter in Week 1, McCarthy has struggled mightily in his brief tenure as a starter.
If Wentz struggles again, the Vikings will have to go back to McCarthy after their bye week. If McCarthy struggles, a talented Vikings team will remain without a reliable quarterback. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold is thriving in Seattle — and Minnesota let him walk in free agency.
The Vikings created this mess. Moving on from Darnold may have been a mistake.
Did the Vikings botch their QB situation? Reassessing Minnesota’s now-bumpy bet on J.J. McCarthy, backup plans
Cody Benjamin
Bengals will win the AFC North
Why was the Bengals’ win over the Steelers significant? Cincinnati avoided falling too far behind in the AFC North race, remaining just two games back in the loss column — and holding the tiebreaker. The Bengals are also only one game out of the final playoff spot, so there’s plenty to play for.
The Bengals face the 0-7 Jets this week, which should be a win based on how New York has played. The Jets aren’t a pushover, but their offense has been stagnant all season. The Steelers, meanwhile, host the Packers, who own the NFC’s best record. Pittsburgh is facing a must-win game to maintain its division lead.
If the Bengals beat the Jets and the Steelers lose to the Packers, Cincinnati will be just one game back in the loss column. The Steelers play the Colts and Chargers before meeting the Bengals again in Week 11. Cincinnati faces the Bears before its bye, then gets Pittsburgh again.
The AFC North is far from decided.
Bears are a playoff team in the NFC
The Bears have a big game this week against the Ravens, who should be getting Lamar Jackson back at quarterback following their bye. This is a true road test for Chicago, which sits at 4-2 as the No. 8 seed in the NFC. The Bears’ strength of victory isn’t great (.339), and they haven’t beaten a team currently above .500.
While the 1-5 Ravens wouldn’t count as a win over a team above .500, Baltimore remains dangerous with Jackson healthy and a defense that showed improvement in a Week 5 loss to the Rams. A win would knock the Ravens further out of the AFC playoff picture and put the Bears at 5-2 — squarely in the mix for both the NFC North and a playoff berth.
The back half of the Bears’ schedule is tough, but this game is a chance for Chicago to prove it’s for real. The Bears are making legitimate progress toward that under first-year head coach Ben Johnson.
Jets won’t win a game until after Thanksgiving
The only winless team in the NFL, the Jets have bigger problems than they may want to admit. While questions surround whether Aaron Glenn can coach, the defense hasn’t been the issue — ranking 16th in yards allowed per game (326.4) and 14th in yards per play (5.3). That’s not the profile of an 0-7 team.
The offense, however, has been abysmal. The Jets rank 29th in yards per game (271.3), 30th in yards per play (4.5), and 28th in offensive points per game (17.1). Justin Fields was benched in favor of Tyrod Taylor last week, as New York ranks last in passing yards per game (143.4), and Fields ranks 40th among quarterbacks in net yards per pass attempt (4.9). Fields takes far too many sacks, as the Jets rank last in sack rate (15.2%).
Simply put, Fields isn’t a starting quarterback in the NFL. Taylor may bring stability, but he isn’t the long-term answer either. The Jets would need an elite defense to stay competitive, but upcoming matchups with the Bengals, Browns, Patriots and Ravens make that unlikely.
Their best shot at a win before Thanksgiving might be against the Browns, but even Cleveland tends to take care of business against bad teams. There’s a real possibility the Jets won’t have a good chance to win until Week 14 against the Dolphins — and by then, Mike McDaniel may not even be the team’s coach.
The Jets are in the midst of one of the worst seasons in franchise history, and it may only get worse.
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