The St. Louis Cardinals must balance long-term interests and near-term contention leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. That’s a challenging needle to thread, but the current realities in St. Louis are such that they must do so.
On the one hand, the Cardinals are in the mix for a playoff berth. At present, they’re 51-49 with a plus-2 run differential. They face long odds in the NL Central given the Cubs and Brewers have been two of the best teams in baseball thus far in 2025. However, the third and final NL wild-card spot is a more viable objective for the Cardinals — albeit perhaps a fading one. They’re right now just 3 ½ games out and behind the Padres, Reds, and Giants in that particular race (+400 to make the playoffs, per Caesars). A team in such a position should not be undertaking a deep deadline sell-off.
All that said, the Cardinals in 2025 committed themselves to what’s been variously called a reset or a transition year in which the emphasis was on regular playing time for young contributors and the offloading of veterans. The latter goal was complicated by all the no-trade clauses in place, and indeed it’s no-trade protection that kept Nolan Arenado from going to the Astros in an offseason trade. As such, manager Oliver Marmol has been presented with a complicated roster and mixed objectives. He’s handled it as well as can be expected, but the entire muddled affair presents a deadline picture that’s, well, muddled.
As such, the following three recommendations for deadline moves seek to split the difference a bit — balancing those long-term interests with the Cardinals’ current hopes of getting back into the postseason for the first time since 2022. Onward.
The Cardinals badly need velocity and swing-and-miss in the rotation, and they also need some front-end stability as they transition from the current unit to a younger one that they hope will be helmed by the likes of Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Tekoah Roby, and recent top draftee Liam Doyle. That brings us to right-handed starting pitcher Edward Cabrera, whom the Marlins are expected to shop leading up to the deadline.
Cabrera is 27 and a former consensus top-100 prospect who isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season. As such, he meets the Cardinals need for both an immediate rotation upgrade and a long-term front-end presence.
This season, Cabrera has leveled up. He’s pitched to a 121 ERA+ in 16 starts, and he’s backed it up with a career-best 3.70 FIP. He’s also shown improved control. Notably, Cabrera has lowered his arm angle and swapped out some fastballs and changeups in favor of more sinkers and sliders. Hitters are whiffing 44.6% of the time on that slider, and his otherwise arm-side-run-heavy repertoire keeps the opposite hand in check. The velocity is big: 96.8 mph on the fastball and 96.6 mph on the sinker. In terms of Stuff+, which evaluates the overall quality of a pitcher’s offerings based on velocity, spin, and movement, Cabrera’s overall figure of 105 is tied for 20th highest among the 101 pitchers to throw at least 80 innings in 2025.
Yes, Cabrera is an injury risk, and indeed he dealt with some elbow discomfort coming out of his last start (MRI was clean), but he has the kind of upside the Cardinals sorely need at the highest level right now. Besides, that injury risk will be baked into the return cost.
Whether it’s catcher depth in the minors, someone high-risk/high-reward like Tink Hence, or lower-rung rising prospects such as Rainel Rodriguez and Yairo Padilla, some combination thereof can be a foundation. At the minor-league level, anyone other than JJ Wetherholt (and of course the recently drafted Doyle) should be in play.
The Cardinals’ closer and two-time All-Star is in his walk year. Had Helsley enjoyed a campaign like 2024, when he finished ninth in the Cy Young vote and won the Trevor Hoffman Award, then things might be different. The Cardinals could keep him in the fold in the name of contention and then ponder a qualifying offer going into the offseason. Instead, Helsley has had something of a down campaign by his standards, and a qualifying offer is too much of a risk for the Cardinals. That means no compensatory draft pick when he (presumably) signs elsewhere this coming offseason.
As such, the Cardinals should see what they can get for him on the trade market. High-leverage relievers are always in demand, and Helsley, while his command hasn’t been at peak this season, has still got the sizzling fastball (it’s averaging 99.2 mph), and the slider remains a putaway weapon. Interested parties may also intuit that Helsley’s a small adjustment from finding his vintage form. He’ll be easily moveable, and the Cardinals should take advantage of the opportunity.
Elsewhere in the bullpen, the Cardinals should capitalize on the markets for veteran walk-year arms Matz and Maton. The lefty Matz should have particular appeal. He’s enjoyed a strong season in St. Louis primarily as a multi-inning, high-leverage reliever. Matz has also made a pair of starts (and 172 starts in his career), so it would be easy enough to stretch him out for rotation work. That’s of note in what figures to be a tight deadline market for starting pitching. This season, Matz boasts an ERA of 3.29 and an FIP of 2.90, and he’s walked just nine batters in 52 innings.
As for Maton, he’s enjoyed a velocity rebound in 2025, and he’s getting more whiffs with his curve. He’s owed pennies by MLB standards — the balance of a $2 million contract for 2025 — and Maton in pace to strike out more than 30% of opposing batters across a full season for the first time in his career.
As for what gutting the bullpen would do to the Cardinals’ wild-card hopes, they have a large number of “roster churn” relievers who have been optioned back and forth this season but are now ready for consistent duty at the highest level. In leverage roles, Gordon Graceffo, Riley O’Brien, Matt Svanson, Andre Granillo, and JoJo Romero can step into the breach. There’s depth, in other words, and the Cardinals would be dealing from a position of theoretical strength.
This isn’t an exhaustive list. If the Cardinals see another opportunity to trade Arenado and offload his remaining commitment they should probably take it, and getting anything at all for the struggling Erick Fedde (thus creating a permanent rotation spot for McGreevy) should be very much on the radar. The above three moves (okay, four), however, should be priority items for the Cardinals as outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak navigates his final trade deadline.
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