I’m back.
After two bad weeks, the tide turned last week for me with my picks. I was starting to get worried, but not anymore.
The temperatures are getting colder, but I am getting hotter.
I went 10-5 both against the spread and straight up last week, which is a nice departure from my losing weeks for the two before that. My record for the year is now 85-79 ATS and 110-53-1 straight up.
Anytime you can be over .500 picking every game against the spread this late in the season, it’s a good one. So let’s build on it and keep it going.
It’s my time. The stretch run is here.
Bet NFL Week 12 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users who win a $5 wager get $300 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass:
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video
The Texans will start Davis Mills again for the injured C.J. Stroud. But this game will be about Josh Allen against the Texans top-ranked defense. Allen is coming off a six-touchdown day against the Bucs and on a short week this defense will present a big challenge. But I think he’s now ready to get on a roll. Bills win it.
Pick: Bills 24, Texans 17 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This might be a Steelers team without Aaron Rodgers (wrist), which means it could be Mason Rudolph time. He is a capable backup, but this will put a lot of pressure on the Steelers run game. If it’s Rodgers, how limited will he be? The Bears have played a lot of close games, winning most of them, and this will be no different. The Bears will squeak another one out late.
Pick: Bears 23, Steelers 21 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Patriots are riding high, while the Bengals are going in the opposite direction. The Bengals will be without suspended receiver Ja’Marr Chase in this one, which will challenge them even more. The Patriots will be rested having played last Thursday, which is is an advantage. They will keep it rolling behind Drake Maye as they win a shootout.
Pick: Patriots 35, Bengals 30 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Lions are coming off a tough loss to the Eagles and now must regroup at home against a Giants team that isn’t going anywhere. The Giants might have Jaxson Dart back at quarterback this week, but it won’t matter who plays quarterback. This will be about the Lions offense getting back on track after disappointing last week. They roll.
Pick: Lions 31, Giants 10 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Vikings are getting little from quarterback J.J. McCarthy and as a result this is a must-win game for them. The Packers still haven’t quite clicked yet on offense either and now must play without Josh Jacobs (knee). That’s not good, but it will force them to open it up, which is a good thing. Jordan Love will play well and win it with that more-open style.
Pick: Packers 27, Vikings 20 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Seahawks are playing consecutive road games after losing to the Rams last week in Los Angeles. Sam Darnold threw four picks in that game, but the defense played well to keep it close. The Titans don’t do anything on offense, so look for the Seattle defense to dominate here. Seahawks get back on track.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Titans 7 | Odds via BetMGM
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This is the game of the week, featuring a Colts team coming off a bye against a Chiefs team that can’t afford another loss. The Colts have rolled on offense this season, but this is a spot where the Kansas City defense steps up and plays well. The Chiefs win it with a desperate season-saving showing as Patrick Mahomes bounces back.
Pick: Chiefs 26, Colts 20 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Jets are making a change at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor in as the starter. Does it really matter? The Ravens had won three straight to right things as they push the Steelers in the division. The offense still hasn’t played great, but I think this is the game for Lamar Jackson to get back to looking like himself after his hamstring injury a few weeks back. Ravens win it.
Pick: Ravens 30, Jets 13 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This will be Shedeur Sanders making his first start for the Browns. The good news is he’s facing a Raiders team that struggles against the pass. The Raiders offense has issues protecting Geno Smith as well, which could be setting up a big day for Myles Garrett. The Browns will win a low-scoring game.
Pick: Browns 20, Raiders 17 | Odds via BetMGM
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This is a long trip for a team coming off a big victory like the Jaguars did last week against the Chargers. Focus could be an issue with a young team, but I still think they found something on offense last week. That will carry over here. They get the best of an Arizona team that is struggling. Jaguars win it.
Pick: Jaguars 28, Cardinals 23 | Odds via BetMGM
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Cowboys will pose a real challenge for the Eagles defense with the way Dak Prescott can light up the scoreboard. Philadelphia hasn’t been great on offense, so the question is whether they can get it going. Not having Lane Johnson will hurt. Look for a lot of points here as the Cowboys pull off an upset.
Pick: Cowboys 33, Eagles 31 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Saints are coming off a bye and they face a Falcons team without quarterback Michael Penix. That means it’s Kirk Cousins for the Falcons. He didn’t do a lot in relief last week. The Saints won the last time out behind their defense and some timely throws from Tyler Shough. I think that same formula will win here.
Pick: Saints 24, Falcons 20 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Bucs are playing consecutive road games after losing at Buffalo to the Bills, and now must travel across the country to play one of the league’s best. That will be a challenge. The Rams defense picked off Sam Darnold four times last week, so they are playing well. Baker Mayfield will keep his team in this one, but the Rams will win it late.
Pick: Rams 28, Bucs 26 | Odds via BetMGM
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
This is a long road trip for a Monday night game against a good team for the Panthers. It’s also a second straight road game, which is tough. The 49ers got Brock Purdy back last week and he impressed. Bryce Young also played well for the Panthers. I think this could be a fun one to watch with the 49ers defense struggling. Look for the 49ers to win a high-scoring game.
Pick: 49ers 32, Panthers 23 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
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